Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

I apologize if such a thread has been created before, but here we go...

Imagine you are a pro, say someone as good as Phil Ivey. It is the first hand of the WSOP main event. You are in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB, who moves all in.

You look down and find AA. Regardless of what you believe the SB to have... is this an instant call?

Some people seem to argue that someone as good as Phil Ivey doesn't need to take such a quick risk, even tho he is a very likely favourite to any of the SB's range of hands. Some would argue that he could "out play" many other plays without having to risk all of his chips.

Then again, winning this pot would put Phil in a great position to be very aggressive, and dominate the table, and perhaps the rest of the tournament.

Some argue, if you're not willing to put everything in with AA in this situation, maybe you don't have what it takes to win the tournament, since you obviously need some luck to get there anyways. What better than to move your money in with the best hand possible preflop?

Thoughts?

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

As you suggest, this situation has been gone over ad nauseum. To quote Doyle Brunson when asked about this scenario:

"The day I fold AA preflop is the day I quit playing poker."

That about sums it up.

Frank

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

You have to call, I don't care who you are. If he has a smaller pair, my guess at this point, then you are 4-1 favorite. It's going to be tough to find a point when you are a better favorite at any point in a hand.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

Did the other 2000 posts regarding this theoretical situation just not do it for you?

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

Alright, I didn't look at the post, but I'm gonna take a wild guess and say "CALL."

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

This isn't even the right forum for this. Post this to the MTT forum so you can be flamed by the right people [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

WTF? This isn't even a very good "Should I fold AA" situation. This is one of the best places you'll find to get your money in.

Like Chipo Greensteen said, the Day I risk my tournament on one pair is the day Coca Cola stock skyrockets to record highs.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

this is one if the dumbest posts i have ever read. Good idea to fold AA with a chance to double up on the first hand. even a player as good as phil ivey has to get lucky to win the wsop, just look at this years final table.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
I apologize if such a thread has been created before, but here we go...

Imagine you are a pro, say someone as good as Phil Ivey. It is the first hand of the WSOP main event. You are in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB, who moves all in.

You look down and find /

[/ QUOTE ]

I stopped reading here.
J4o? Fold and look for a better situation.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

easiest call in the world...people like you are the reason we make so much money

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

AA is a close fold. KK is a very easy fold. Pocket horseshoes on the other hand, you're a [censored] if you fold those.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
even tho he is a very likely favourite to any of the SB's range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]?

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

Why does it matter that it's the first hand? If it was the 10th or 100th hand of the WSOP main event would anyones answer change? (No)

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

I raise. I don't care if we're both all in. I really like my hand.

This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.

Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me.
Ok, what am I thinking ?
Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold.
Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey.

Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA.
Disaster !
What do I do ?
I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore.
So, that’s what I do. All in.

Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in.
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too.
So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split.
But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses.
So Phil says to himself,
“why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ?
I’ll get lots of better opportunities later.
So, I fold.”

Result : Instant fold.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.

Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me.
Ok, what am I thinking ?
Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold.
Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey.

Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA.
Disaster !
What do I do ?
I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore.
So, that’s what I do. All in.

Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in.
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too.
So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split.
But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses.
So Phil says to himself,
“why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ?
I’ll get lots of better opportunities later.
So, I fold.”

Result : Instant fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong on so many levels.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Result : Instant fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. Do you see why? If you don't, I bolded why -- and by association, your reasoning for why the SB has AA and only AA is wrong as well.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

Is God so powerfull that he can microwave a burrito so hot that he himself can't eat it?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.

Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me.
Ok, what am I thinking ?
Well, firstly I?m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he?s definitely going to outplay me, and I?m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're so afraid to play against Phil Ivey that you open-fold AA pre-flop, you probably shouldn't be playing in the WSOP in the first place.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA is a close fold. KK is a very easy fold. Pocket horseshoes on the other hand, you're a [censored] if you fold those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right... So when the guy flips over two purple magic wands you are screwed. Horseshoes is an instafold for me.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're so afraid to play against Phil Ivey that you open-fold AA pre-flop, you probably shouldn't be playing in the WSOP in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should read all the post before you make incorrect comments.
What I said was that if I was in the SB, and Phil Ivey was in the BB, then I would fold everything except AA, in which case I would go all-in. Because I'm so sh!t scared of Phil Ivey.
And if that happens, and Phil Ivey has AA in the BB, then he should instantly fold because he would immediately deduce (as he is the greatest) that
(i) I'm sh!t scared of getting involved with him
(ii) because of (i), he knows that I would fold everything except AA
(iii) so because I actually decided to play at all, he KNOWS that I have AA. The fact that I went all in makes perfect sense to him because he KNOWS that I do not want to be be outplayed, so all-in is my only move.
So, for the above reasons, he knows that the best thing to do is fold, as the chances of doubling up are equal to the chances of getting knocked out. And he's too good a player to rely on 50/50 type situations.

What part of my Raymeresque type explanation do people not understand ?

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is God so powerfull that he can microwave a burrito so hot that he himself can't eat it?


[/ QUOTE ]

only on the first tuesday of months beginning with the letter J

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
I apologize if such a thread has been created before, but here we go...

Imagine you are a pro, say someone as good as Phil Ivey. It is the first hand of the WSOP main event. You are in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB, who moves all in.

You look down and find AA. Regardless of what you believe the SB to have... is this an instant call?

Some people seem to argue that someone as good as Phil Ivey doesn't need to take such a quick risk, even tho he is a very likely favourite to any of the SB's range of hands. Some would argue that he could "out play" many other plays without having to risk all of his chips.

Then again, winning this pot would put Phil in a great position to be very aggressive, and dominate the table, and perhaps the rest of the tournament.

Some argue, if you're not willing to put everything in with AA in this situation, maybe you don't have what it takes to win the tournament, since you obviously need some luck to get there anyways. What better than to move your money in with the best hand possible preflop?

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two things at play here.

1. No player is good enough to even have a 70% chance of doubling up in a tournament. So they cannont pass this up.

2. A great player will have an increased advantage having the table covered.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're so afraid to play against Phil Ivey that you open-fold AA pre-flop, you probably shouldn't be playing in the WSOP in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should read all the post before you make incorrect comments.
What I said was that if I was in the SB, and Phil Ivey was in the BB, then I would fold everything except AA, in which case I would go all-in. Because I'm so sh!t scared of Phil Ivey.
And if that happens, and Phil Ivey has AA in the BB, then he should instantly fold because he would immediately deduce (as he is the greatest) that
(i) I'm sh!t scared of getting involved with him
(ii) because of (i), he knows that I would fold everything except AA
(iii) so because I actually decided to play at all, he KNOWS that I have AA. The fact that I went all in makes perfect sense to him because he KNOWS that I do not want to be be outplayed, so all-in is my only move.
So, for the above reasons, he knows that the best thing to do is fold, as the chances of doubling up are equal to the chances of getting knocked out. And he's too good a player to rely on 50/50 type situations.

What part of my Raymeresque type explanation do people not understand ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the original post. AA vs xx not AA vs AA

If someone went all in and showed his aces as he did it then you might fold, but that's just a stupid hypothetical, no one would waste their aces like that. Even if the range is tiny its still a range, say 80% AA and 19% KK 1% something else and the call would sitll be correct.

No one would fold AA preflop here unless their game is seriosuly flawed, it's wrong in theor and in practice, you cannot win the argument.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should read all the post before you make incorrect comments.
What I said was that if I was in the SB, and Phil Ivey was in the BB, then I would fold everything except AA, in which case I would go all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe YOU would ONLY play AA from that spot, and only PUSH AA from that spot, but not every donkey would. Not even close. Not even remotely close. Take it from a donkey who played in the 2005 ME. There's no player's range that is AA, and only AA there - even against Phil Ivey. Well, clearly, there are players whose range is only AA there (you, RacingSilver, for instance) -- but Phil (and neither can any other player) KNOW that -- at least, not with enough certainty to lay down AA there.

I suspect even if you TOLD him you had Aces, he'd still call. I suspect even if you TOLD him before the hand started: "I'm folding everything but AA, and I'm pushing AA" -- and it got folded around to you, and you pushed -- I suspect he'd still call, because the chances of you lying are FAR GREATER than him calling with aces and losing to your aces.

[ QUOTE ]
he KNOWS that I have AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Never. In that spot, there is no way he KNOWS the sb has AA. He may suspect it, he may put the SB on it - he may even think so to a high degree - put a percent on it - maybe he's 75% confident the SB has AA? 80%? Even if he's NINETY PERCENT sure the SB has AA, he's still correct to call. Either way, there's no way (insert any player in the world) is folding AA in that spot short of someone with X-ray vision who can see the sb's aces. I don't think Clark Kent has taken up poker yet, so I think you can be pretty damned sure no one would ever fold AA there, ever.

[ QUOTE ]
What part of my Raymeresque type explanation do people not understand ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. Raymer-esque just doesn't mean what it used to, apparently.

Either way...I think everyone understands, because this topic or something similar comes up about once a week -- but even though everyone understands, you'll be very hard-pressed to find anyone who agrees with you.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
Read the original post. AA vs xx not AA vs AA


[/ QUOTE ]

I politely suggest that YOU read the original post, and then my posts. You will see that if I go all-in as the SB in this situation, then Phil Ivey, with his superhuman powers of deduction, his godlike card-reading skills, his infallible psychological profiling, his proven ESP expertise, his ability to be in the zone, etc. etc. will know I have AA.

So to YOU i.e. Average Joe, it is AA v xx.
But to the imperious Ivey, it is AA v AA.

Now, for the last time, what part of my reasoning do you not understand ?

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Read the original post. AA vs xx not AA vs AA


[/ QUOTE ]

I politely suggest that YOU read the original post, and then my posts. You will see that if I go all-in as the SB in this situation, then Phil Ivey, with his superhuman powers of deduction, his godlike card-reading skills, his infallible psychological profiling, his proven ESP expertise, his ability to be in the zone, etc. etc. will know I have AA.

So to YOU i.e. Average Joe, it is AA v xx.
But to the imperious Ivey, it is AA v AA.

Now, for the last time, what part of my reasoning do you not understand ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how Ivey know you have AA. Poker doesn't work like that, maybe if you showed him AA he could %100 know you had it, otherwise it makes no sense.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

Imagine this scenario. Phil Hellmuth is the SB, Phil Ivey is the BB. Both have AA. Hellmuth takes a glance at Ivey and of course puts him 100% on AA. Ivey, also before any action has taken place, takes a quick look at Hellmuth and puts him 100% on AA. Both fear getting allin against the other player on this hand, risking elimination for very small upside potential. What happens now? Will Phil Hellmuth open-fold AA from the SB? Of course, before acting, Phil Hellmuth will realize that Phil Ivey puts him on AA. And Ivey knows that Hellmuth puts him on AA and also knows that Hellmuth knows that he knows that Hellmuth has AA and puts him on AA. Will this results in some sort of stalemate situation where neither player can do anything?

You are correct, this really is a fascinating question.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

I admit that I did not envisage that type of situation where the SB thinks he's God and the BB actually is God. However I think I have an easy solution. As both players know that the other has AA, then Ivey will say
"Oh one who thinks he's God, I am telling you that I will go all-in regardless of your action. And as I am God, you know that I am not lying".
Hellmuth will reply "Ivey, you're lying right now as there can only be one true God, and we both know who that is."
"Shut up you gobshite" says Ivey and pushes all-in out of turn.
Hellmuth folds.
Ivey is King.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

...you should quit poker right now.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.


[/ QUOTE ]

LMFAO

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

this is an instant call. people like phil hellmuth who talk about folding AA preflop are retarded if theyre serious.

even if your ROI in a tournament is 100% of your buyin then the call is correct.

notice that if you always got your money in preflop as an 85% favorite that your ROI is WAYYYYY over 100%. 85% of the time you double up the other 15% of the time you go broke. the times you double up you continue to play good poker and get your money in as an 85% favorite again

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

think of it like compounding interest. if you have a ROI of 15% at compounding interest your ROI is far far larger than 15% without regards to time.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

LOL EASY FOLD V HIGH RISK NO REWARD

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is an instant call. people like phil hellmuth who talk about folding AA preflop are retarded if theyre serious.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe Hellmuth has ever talked about folding AA preflop.

Why are so many of you taking RacingSilver seriously?

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

ive personally read about phil hellmuth talking about folding AA preflop by a pretigious author in one of the magazines.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

Ok so we're definately folding AA.. but what about AK? Doyle Branson said its better than AA.

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

To all that consider folding in this spot, YOU ARE ON CRACK AND NEED HELP! [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
 

That post makes more sense then any others, lol.

Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
 

[ QUOTE ]
I admit that I did not envisage that type of situation where the SB thinks he's God and the BB actually is God. However I think I have an easy solution. As both players know that the other has AA, then Ivey will say
"Oh one who thinks he's God, I am telling you that I will go all-in regardless of your action. And as I am God, you know that I am not lying".
Hellmuth will reply "Ivey, you're lying right now as there can only be one true God, and we both know who that is."
"Shut up you gobshite" says Ivey and pushes all-in out of turn.
Hellmuth folds.
Ivey is King.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can people possibly be arguing with RacingSilver about this? He is obviously kidding.