i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

It wasnt mine, but someone who is very good....

121 players left...120 get paid...71-120 get 11,000$....41-70 get 12k..

Chip Jett is at another table with 2 antes in his stack.

Blinds 600/1200 200 ante.

Hero has more chips than apporximately 12 people, and is UTG with 9600 chips and JJ. Many at the table have big stacks including the bb.

Hero?



sheets

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

this might be a copout, i'm not sure.

but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously.

however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

The step from 0 to 1.1 buyins feels like a pretty big step to me. The hero's stack is just at the size where he can easily make it into the money, but is not big enough to scare the big stacks away form playing against him.

I think I'd shut down for an orbit and reevaluate after that if we're still on the bubble. Fold.

-Oz-

(Yes, I'm aware of the arguments for opening up your game on the bubble when everyone is playing super tight. But this is the perogotive of medium and large stacks, not stacks that are in danger of being easily busted)

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
121 players left...120 get paid...71-120 get 11,000$....41-70 get 12k..

[/ QUOTE ]

whoa, they paid 50 people a profit of $1k and another 30 a profit of $2k? that suuuuuuuuucks.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
this might be a copout, i'm not sure.

but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously.

however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know players use this type of information in making their decisions, but truly, EV is EV, regardless of how much it cost you to get into that position. If you super-satellited in for $5 or plunked down $10K, your result is 0 if you bust now and at least 11K if you survive one more player.

-Oz-

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so... 11k means something to everybody even the pros. If you double up, you are not guaranteed to make it past 50 more people so you don't win a lot of EV, however by folding you are 100% sure to make at least 11k. It's a fold.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this might be a copout, i'm not sure.

but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously.

however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know players use this type of information in making their decisions, but truly, EV is EV, regardless of how much it cost you to get into that position. If you super-satellited in for $5 or plunked down $10K, your result is 0 if you bust now and at least 11K if you survive one more player.

-Oz-

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i just dont know about this. i mean i understand what you're saying. it's easy to say $EV is $EV. but what i'm suggesting is that that just isn't realistic for someone that supersatellited into the tournament.

what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so... 11k means something to everybody even the pros. If you double up, you are not guaranteed to make it past 50 more people so you don't win a lot of EV, however by folding you are 100% sure to make at least 11k. It's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is incorrect. think about it in terms of the average $20-$50 partypoker (or whatever) tourney that you play. in those tournies, i'm pushing this everytime, because i want to double up, because i could give a [censored] about winning $20 for 3 hours of poker.

it's the same for big tourney pros who are investing hundreds of thousands a year into tourney entry fees. they are after the big score, not to sneak their way into a tiny return on their money.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo.


[/ QUOTE ]

11k is nothing in the real world. At least not where I live (DC). It would be nice, sure. But it isn't paying off your mortgage or anything. It might payoff a car, but hell, those loans are only 3 years anyway.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo.


[/ QUOTE ]

11k is nothing in the real world. At least not where I live (DC). It would be nice, sure. But it isn't paying off your mortgage or anything. It might payoff a car, but hell, those loans are only 3 years anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh. this shouldnt even be an issue.

if you cant see the difference in $11k for a person with bankroll enough to play $5 SNGs and $11k for a person with bankroll enough to direct buy into $10k tourneys, then, whatever.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's the same for big tourney pros who are investing hundreds of thousands a year into tourney entry fees. they are after the big score, not to sneak their way into a tiny return on their money.

[/ QUOTE ]

If $10K is "life changing" money for a supersatellite player, he probably should have sold his seat.

I can't speak for anyone else, but many of the "pros" I correspond with evaluate opportunities in terms of expected return. The best players return 1-2 buyins per tourney over the long run. Gaining 1.1 buyins with practically no risk is a pretty good argument for folding under the stated conditions.

This isn't to say that lots of "pros" wouldn't be playing hyper aggressively even with a stack that can be picked off rather easily. And conversely, the vast majority of players that super-sated in would play hyper conservatively here (anyone up for a "should I throw away AA preflop" discussion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). But just because an opinion aligns with how a low bankroll player would approach the situation, it doesn't mean it's wrong. And just because the conclusions may align doesn't mean the rational was correct in both cases either.

-Oz-

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Interesting situation...

I really think it depends on what $11K means to you and whether cashing in a big event is important to your ego. If I'm a regular on the circuit I instapush if a double up will get me anywhere near the avg. I have a reserved seat on the bubble in $100 and 200 online tourneys (most recently used last night when I tried to resteal w/ 77 and a well below avg but safe stack). In real world terms 11K doesn't mean much to me but it would be a significant boost to the poker bankroll so I would probaly try to ease into the $, especially given the flat payout structure. If the table has been passive, I would consider a 2x ish mini raise trying to represent a monster that wants action. If I get popped pre, I prob fold and then go root for Jett to bust out.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Fold; its not even close.

Hero's $EV for T20,000 (16XBB) chips isn't that much greater than his $EV for T10,000 chips, given the flat payout structure. The downside is zero.

I think its probably correct to fold aces; although I'd feel terrible about it the next day.

Hero has to face the cold hard facts that he has played 2/3 of the tournament and has the same stack he started with, he should be happy to escape with his entry fee, and get in action again.

JJ isn't that EV+, so its not like hero is leaving that much on the table. And hero will still have a chance to gamble his stack once the bubble bursts.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Seems like an easy fold to me.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

When I first read this, my initial reaction was instapush.

But upon reading the posts below, clearly the only correct decision is to happily pretend those two cards are 72o and muck em quick.

Glad you posted this before this situation came up for me.

-Scott

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

If we assume the average stack is around 100k, looks like a fold. Doubling and even tripling won't neccessarily put hero in a position to do damage with the flat payout over the next few spots.

I think hero should wave the white flag on this hand if he/she likes money.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I do not understand why they even have a payout structure where 2/3 of the players "in the money" basically just get their buyin back.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I think this is an easy push. Everyboyd is focusing on the $11k that you could miss out on if you just folded till the money, they're forgetting 1st is over $2 million, 2nd is over $1 million. The fact that significant money doesn't appear until top 20 means that you still need to accumulate chips and not cross your fingers to barely break even in the event. If this was a $100 tournament with this same payout structure everybody would be saying push.

Edit: To those who say its a fold, what are you doing with QQ, KK, AA?

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an easy push. Everyboyd is focusing on the $11k that you could miss out on if you just folded till the money, they're forgetting 1st is over $2 million, 2nd is over $1 million. The fact that significant money doesn't appear until top 20 means that you still need to accumulate chips and not cross your fingers to barely break even in the event. If this was a $100 tournament with this same payout structure everybody would be saying push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, perhaps everybody-1. That's why I've been so careful to phrase my responses in terms of winning 1.1 buyins. For me, the logic holds regardless of the actual amounts we are talking about.

I guess the situation is screaming for a structrured hand analysis. I'll take a stab at it later tonight.

-Oz-

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Fold. That payout structure is insanely linear.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Whether I am a billionaire or in my current financial status (dirt poor), if I have the option of winning $11,000 nearly 100% of the time vs. MAYBE picking up AA twice in row and doubling my chips twice, I'll take the $11,000. AA might potentially win me more, but just by folding I win money. If the short stack was at M=2 or something though, it's a different story. 2 antes is so ridiculously short stacked that it's not even a close decision for me whether to wait or not.

-Gross

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I am playing one hand in this spot and it aint JJ.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

wtf. Seriously, wtf? Whoever above me said fold so you can sneak into the money...that's soooooo weak. Hidiously so.

So just take the 11g's and surrender? Or push, hope to get only the blinds but if you get called you have more than doubled your stack and are one pot away from being right back in the thick of things.

Guys, the payout structure is flat as a board. You need chips NOW to get to the real money. $11,000? That's chump change in this tourny and there are only 120 players left.

Doing anything aside from pushing is Weeeaakkkk.

HEK

btw sheets...congrats on 13th. Didn't we agree as part of the chop that I get 10% [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I didn't realize 1st was worth $2mil and 2nd was $1mil.

Thinking.......................................... ....

Ok, it's an easy push.

-Gross

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Problem is even if you double up now, and you double up a couple of more times you're still below average. So you need to double up three times after this to have an above average stack, and even then it's not at all given that you will get more than the 11k.

Cut the macho [censored] with "playing for first", and start making the play that will earn you the most money. This forum has some serious hang up with "I'm playing for first, not to get ITM". Sometimes playing to get in the money is the only right thing to do.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I bet out 3K hoping to take it down preflop. If someone comes over-the-top, you still have options. Against tight big stacks, you can fold and still have enough to get through the blinds and limp into the money. Of course you can also decide to gamble...

I know most people cringe at the thought of putting in 1/3 stack and then having to fold, but folding would be read dependent, and you do have a legit shot at taking it down...

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I haven't played on of these, but I would imagine that you have a bout 0% chance of not being called or reraised. Everyone else knows we are on the bubble as well, and that there is a shortie with 2xante.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]

Cut the macho [censored] with "playing for first", and start making the play that will earn you the most money. This forum has some serious hang up with "I'm playing for first, not to get ITM". Sometimes playing to get in the money is the only right thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said that I'm solely playing for first, but when the payout for squeeking into the money is 1.1 buyins, its pretty crazy to fold when you have JJ UTG. Stop letting the fact that its 11k cloud your judgement. Knock off 2 or 3 zeros from all the payouts/buyin and then tell me what you think the best option is.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

I knock out all the zeros and still fold. It is all about making the most +EV decision. And here it is a fold. Stop looking at the top payouts, you are not getting there anyway. Double up here and you still have a microstack. If doubling up here put me back in the middle of the field it would be an entirely different matter. But doubling up here really doesn't improve my situation all that much.

Look at sirios latest post.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

Everything is in terms ROI. If i Play for 3-4 hrs and only make 1/10 my buyin in profit, then Im gonna be pissed. The problem is, 10k is a lot of money to low stakes players, but when you buy into the tournament, it is obviously not that much money to you. These players might be playing with a role of 300-400k, and could care less about squeeking into the money. Stop being weak tight.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
Everything is in terms ROI. If i Play for 3-4 hrs and only make 1/10 my buyin in profit, then Im gonna be pissed.

[/ QUOTE ]
You must either make an insane amount of money or be pissed off a lot.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an 11k jump in prize money. The next 11k jump is from 10th to 9th place. $EV and chipEV have fully diverged in this spot. It's not even all that clear that this is very highly chipEV. If you must raise, I would rather put in an amount that of like 4k or so assuming people will think I'm PC'd and fold to a reraise. It's silly, but this is a silly situation.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
It wasnt mine, but someone who is very good....

121 players left...120 get paid...71-120 get 11,000$....41-70 get 12k..

Chip Jett is at another table with 2 antes in his stack.

Blinds 600/1200 200 ante.

Hero has more chips than apporximately 12 people, and is UTG with 9600 chips and JJ. Many at the table have big stacks including the bb.

Hero?



sheets

[/ QUOTE ]

If the hero wants to do more than make the money then the hero needs to push.

At almost this exact same time as the example above I pushed about 15K all in with 88. No one called me. I was all in a few times as we got close to the bubble. I wanted chips or I wanted to go home.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
At almost this exact same time as the example above I pushed about 15K all in with 88. No one called me. I was all in a few times as we got close to the bubble. I wanted chips or I wanted to go home.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody called, you say?

then clearly it's a push.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet out 3K hoping to take it down preflop. If someone comes over-the-top, you still have options. Against tight big stacks, you can fold and still have enough to get through the blinds and limp into the money. Of course you can also decide to gamble...

I know most people cringe at the thought of putting in 1/3 stack and then having to fold, but folding would be read dependent, and you do have a legit shot at taking it down...

[/ QUOTE ]

There was a guy at my table that tried to raise three times when we were 1 or 2 from the bubble. He was re-raised off his hand everytime. I wanted to jump up and tell him to quit putting money into a pot that he will not defend. The poor kid got run over because he didn't want to go broke on the bubble. He would have been better served never even looking at his cards but instead just tossing them in the muck until we made the money.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount

[/ QUOTE ]

if you push and BB holds AQ, you desperately want him to fold. i haven't looked at numbers, but i'm getting you'd slightly prefer junk like K8s fold to push rather than call. the reason that you want to make this play is to pick up the blinds and increase your stack from 9600 to 9600+2800, not to get called and try to double up.

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

[ QUOTE ]
This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. You made about the most pessimistic assumptions possible, btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
 

This is bad timing for a blind steal, in my opinion. As I pointed out, the blinds do barely anything for you $EV wise, so you're risking substantially for not much gain. If all we're interested in is the blinds, why not wait until we have 72 on the button, which would probably be a higher EV play?

I guess my point is that JJ just isn't dominant enough to make this a substantial money winner, from what I've looked at so far. I must admit, I was expecting it to be an easy, easy fold; the numbers are closer to neutral than I would have guessed.