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-   -   Another A-A hand, overbet (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=384038)

LetYouDown 11-23-2005 01:58 PM

Another A-A hand, overbet
 
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP2 ($24.25)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($24.65)
Button ($15.28)
SB ($19.65)
BB ($39.90)
Hero ($23.35)
UTG+1 ($36.45)
UTG+2 ($14.80)
MP1 ($36.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Flop: ($3.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, MP1 calls $34.70 (All-In), Hero ????

Mercman572 11-23-2005 02:00 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
No read I fold, probably the best hand too. This is one of the times when I sacrafice some marginal EV when I know a loss will ruin my session due to tilt afterward

beavens 11-23-2005 02:00 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
insta-call forme.

wslee00 11-23-2005 02:05 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
flush draw, straight draw, straight+flush draw, or set
The two hands that you are beating are flush draw and straight draw, str8+flush draw you are slight dog, set - you are big dog

i didn't calculate the EV and stuff, but this looks like a break-even situation, so I pass.

LetYouDown 11-23-2005 02:08 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
You eliminate something marginal such as A-Q from his holdings?

Morrek 11-23-2005 02:10 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
I've seen air here quite a few times... hard to fold on this level

beavens 11-23-2005 02:13 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
i'm definitely thinking he's got Qx/xh, Qx/xx or xh/xh

Morrek 11-23-2005 02:21 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
[ QUOTE ]
i'm definitely thinking he's got Qx/xh, Qx/xx or xh/xh

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. sets are a small possibility too, maybe 20-25%? Maybe some random 2pair too like another 10%, but I really think you're ahead alot here and he just wants you out of the pot

beavens 11-23-2005 02:27 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm definitely thinking he's got Qx/xh, Qx/xx or xh/xh

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. sets are a small possibility too, maybe 20-25%? Maybe some random 2pair too like another 10%, but I really think you're ahead alot here and he just wants you out of the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed.. sets are a possibility.

if he's got a set - then i draw to my 2 outs and probably get stacked - nh.

LetYouDown 11-23-2005 02:30 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
[ QUOTE ]
he just wants you out of the pot

[/ QUOTE ]
The pot isn't exactly a monster. I dunno why he'd be willing to risk an entire buy-in to steal one medium pot.

AKQJ10 11-23-2005 02:38 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
With no read, fold. There certainly are small-stakes players who'll make the huge bluf raise, but they'll do it several times in a session so you'll get a read on them, and will do it enough that you'll make back any money you lose by getting the pot stolen.

OTOH, there are also small stakes players who don't know how to play when they hit a monster so they just shove the chips in. Incidentally Q7s or even Q4s is also a possibility for some bad players.

The worst case is that it's not a steal but a value raise out of ignorance with TPTK or (less ignorantly) KK. Then it will take longer for them to give the money back (because they do require at least a decent hand, unlike the compulsive bluffer) but they'll still give it back in the long term.

I play at Pacific and Absolute, mostly, so feel free to ignore the above if it's somehow inapplicable to Party.

11-23-2005 02:57 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
i know this a bad reason to call, but at nl25 i always considered everyone a donkey until proven otherwise. At higher limits this is a fold.

11-23-2005 03:07 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
25NL, instacall for me.

very few at this level would raise like this with a set. My feeling is he wants a fold not a call. Probably a flush draw.
AQ, KQ very possible as well.

AKQJ10 11-23-2005 03:09 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
[ QUOTE ]
i know this a bad reason to call, but at nl25 i always considered everyone a donkey until proven otherwise. At higher limits this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I try to remind myself that even donkeys get hands.

Certainly I agree with your main premise, but even a donkey must have a specific reason for a huge raise. Of course one such reason might be that this is a specific kind of donkey, a maniacal compulsive bluffer, but in my experience they usually show their colors pretty clearly at small stakes.

Bad players call with marginal hands and play passively when they shouldn't. Few bad players just toss in maniacal raises with bad hands -- those who do are fairly easy to spot, at least in my limited experience.

Riverman 11-23-2005 03:15 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
turbocalls

amoeba 11-23-2005 03:27 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
I call and I'm weaktight.

11-23-2005 06:25 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
I read this as overprotection of something - flopped topped pair / has KK / two pair / trips - he wants to stop any draws and settle for the pot. Is it better than AA? I don't think it's worth finding out.

Malachii 11-23-2005 06:27 PM

Re: Another A-A hand, overbet
 
Insta call baby.


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