Odds on NFC Champs
 

Based on some very rough calculations, I have the NFC Championship going to:

Seahawks - 64%
Giants - 30%
Somebody else - 6%

Comments?

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Alot of credit to the Seahawks not blowing up. I would say it is closer to:

Seattle 40%
Panthers 20%
Bears 15%
Cowboys 10%
Giants 7%
Falcons 5%
someone else 3%

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

I'll take your someone else for 16:1 odds

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

You realize that requires the Seahawks to win a playoff game, right?

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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I'll take your someone else for 16:1 odds

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Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Based on some great pot I was smoking, I have the NFC Championship going to:

Seahawks - 64%
Giants - 30%
Somebody else - 6%

Comments?

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fyp

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

I'm sorry guys, I worded this completely wrong. I meant Odds to get the #1 seed in the NFC. Please reconsider in light of my inability to say what I mean.

No way the 'Hawks are close to 2:1 to win the NFC championship.

FWIW, I think Dallas has a better chance of winning the NFC East than NY, but because Seattle has beaten Dallas (and NY could beat Seattle this week), NY has a much better chance of getting the #1 seed if they do win the division.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Oh yeah, and upon looking at the remaining schedules for Dallas, NY, Carolina, Tampa, and Chicago, I now give it:

Seattle - 70%
NY - 25%
Other - 5%

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Seems reasonable to me, just based on intuition.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

I'll take "NO" on the Giants for the limit please.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

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As a Bears fan, I'd certainly welcome a Hawks/Bears NFC Championship game, whether it would be in Chicago or Seattle.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Alot of credit to the Seahawks not blowing up

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The season is still very young my friend. Only beating San Fran by 2 points could be an omen to the near future.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

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Chicago loses to Tampa, Pitt, and ATL this yr, maybe MN

go in as the 4seed or miss if they lose to MN

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

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Chicago loses to Tampa, Pitt, and ATL this yr, maybe MN

go in as the 4seed or miss if they lose to MN

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Chicago is better than ATL and host them. They've already trounced MN 28-3 and Minnesota's god awful. They're better than Tampa.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

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Chicago loses to Tampa, Pitt, and ATL this yr, maybe MN

go in as the 4seed or miss if they lose to MN

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Chicago is better than ATL and host them. They've already trounced MN 28-3 and Minnesota's god awful. They're better than Tampa.

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I'll be at that game on Sunday night, and it will be very cold, which will give the Bears a big advantage. It depends on which Falcons team shows up to the game.

There's no way that the current MN team is going to beat the Bears in their last meeting of the season.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

The same Falcons team shows up every game, the only difference is that they haven't recovered fumbles lately.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Based on some very rough calculations, I have the NFC Championship going to:

Seahawks - 64%
Giants - 30%
Somebody else - 6%

Comments?

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And for the record, where are you from and what is your favorite football team?

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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And for the record, where are you from and what is your favorite football team?

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I live in Tacoma, WA. I am a diehard Seahawks fan.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Looks to me like it's very likely Chicago will get a bye. I doubt the Seahawks collapse, and Seattle will have home-field throughout the playoffs. New York will probably go on the road to either Seattle or Chicago, and lose. Seattle will beat Chicago at home, but it'd be a damned good game.

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Chicago loses to Tampa, Pitt, and ATL this yr, maybe MN

go in as the 4seed or miss if they lose to MN

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Chicago is better than ATL and host them. They've already trounced MN 28-3 and Minnesota's god awful. They're better than Tampa.

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um they almost lost to NO, and Det on the road, and did lose their other 2road games .. MN is better than both NO and Det

Tampa is at home, again look at how the bears have played on the road this yr ... their record is a by product of a favorable home/away ratio, with 2games against winning teams both at home, they aren't a 7-3 caliber team, more like a decent 6-4, 5-5team .. and not a bye team

one last thing the first MN game was after the boat incident, and you only managed 200ish yds offense .. scoring because of special teams and turnovers .. it was not exactly a superdominating performance, and MN is playing better now

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Yes, all three of their losses have come on the road. One, at Washington, a strong team - in Kyle Orton's first game as a rookie, and they lost by a matter of all of 2 points. Two, at Cincy - one of the best teams in the league. Three, at Cleveland - back when the team still gave a damn and played reasonably well. Orton's a rookie and makes mistakes, sometimes that'll lead to close games with bad opponents. Yes, they almost lost to NO in LSU. So? Carolina lost to NO in Carolina.

Let me tell you how impressed I am with Minnesota's upsurge. Whooo. Go Vikes, they've beaten two of the worst teams in the league and managed to beat New York without moving the ball.

Sure, Minnesota's better than Detroit and New Orleans. Color me impressed. I can use your logic, too: Chicago dominated Carolina. Carolina dominated Minnesota. Whoo. It's not about that in the NFL. You can't look at a team's worst games and say "look, these guys suck!" Because you can do that for every team.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

I am a Falcons fan, and it hurts me to say this, but they're really not that good. Chicago is clearly better, and they should win the game in Chicago.

Chicago is ranked significantly higher in DVOA and a little higher in Sagarin predictor. That's good enough for me.

Atlanta is sort of a fraud. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Because you can do that for every team.

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...but one.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

LOL, the ironic thing about this season is that as Washington and Atlanta play better and better, they lose games. Washington played like [censored] and went 3-0, then they started playing real well, they went 2-5. Now, as Michael Vick starts to become valuable, they go 2-2 because all of the sudden, nobody can pick up a bouncing oblong. ATL are a roughly average team that require the breaks to go their way to beat a lot of teams.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

"Two, at Cincy"

No. The Bears were at home.

-Michael

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

meh, I misread the schedule.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Chicago 13, Tampa 10

Does my gloating ever get old?

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Chicago 13, Tampa 10

Does my gloating ever get old?

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nice game there, I'm impressed, your bye talk is starting to get more likely

now would be time to choke against the Packers, you guys like doing that

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

I would not rank ATL as a great team, but their running game is still very strong. They still have a record of something like 43-25 with Vick at QB. They also looked at little better than Seattle in the game they lost by 3 points in Seattle.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

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Chicago 13, Tampa 10

Does my gloating ever get old?

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No.

Re: Odds on NFC Champs
 

Updated odds
Can't see a team that can give up 490 yards of offense, at home no less, winning an NFC Championship.

Bill