Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Just sat down

OK so I played passively on the flop, now I'm heads up with a villian who could be quite weak. I feel like I need to make a play for this pot, what is my plan for the turn?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I don't think we can make a play at the pot here without a read.

edit: I'd usually lead the flop here, but I don't mind checking and planning to raise with enough callers.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I usually just lead this flop. If it's HU on the turn after that I lead into him again, unless he raised the flop. In that case I check fold and either check fold or check raise the river depending on whether I hit one of my draws.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I usually bet this flop.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

lead flop
lead turn

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I don't lead this flop.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't lead this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5 players and a fd+bdsd. why not?

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I lead the flop, and I'll c/c the turn w/o a read. People just don't fold all that much. If you want to try and fold him, I think a c/r is your best bet. You're not sad about getting a free card.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't lead this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5 players and a fd+bdsd. why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a 5.5SB pot, what, in all seriousness, does a bet into 4 opponents acheive?

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

You have fold equity. You can clean up Jack outs. It'd be nice to fold JTo instead of letting it check through. Also, you're getting value when they call. You're also making it correct to call your draw on later streets if you pick up some loose calls here on the flop.

I'm not sure if any of this is coming out right, but I'm pretty sure betting is much better than checking.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have fold equity. You can clean up Jack outs. It'd be nice to fold JTo instead of letting it check through. Also, you're getting value when they call. You're also making it correct to call your draw on later streets if you pick up some loose calls here on the flop.

I'm not sure if any of this is coming out right, but I'm pretty sure betting is much better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now there's a quite a few very good players in this thread advocating leading this flop but I'm willing to go out on a limb and buck the trend.


Here's my reasoning.

Is it going to fold everyone on the flop....not likely.
Fold equity is about zero donking into four opponents.

Is the bet for value? Well you're hoping for two calls.
If you're going to get two calls, you could have c/r for value and have cost yourself money.

I think when you get callers in a pot this small, your J outs are going to be dead a good amount of the time.

I also think that you would be very lucky to get just two CALLS.
ie. In an unraised small pot you are much more likely to be up against Qx, Jx etc. If you are going to get two callers, one of those callers has to be MP1, MP2, MP3. Getting only 6.5:1 on a flop call, it's likely that the first caller is likely to have Qx more than any other holding. Now, what do YOU do with Qx on this flop when the SB donks into you....you punish the poor fool and try to get it HU...and if he doesn't play back, you own him.

I think if you are serious about putting any aggression into this flop, and generating any real fold equity, I'd put some serious consideration into c/ring ANY number of callers.

For me, the preferred line is to c/r &gt;2 callers for value, c/c the turn.

Depending on villian, I'd c/r a LP bettor and semi bluff donk the turn.

I don't like leaving all my eggs in villian's basket, which is what donking this flop does.
By checking you get all the information you need to determine the best play. And if the worst thing that happens is this flop gets checked through, I'm a happy Hero.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

*grunch*
check-raise turn, lead the river. If "weak" means he won't bet the turn again as a bluff or with a rather weak holding, I'd b/c. You have 15 outs here for your draws and your J could even be good. I don't know if that lifts you up over 50% equity but the 4 makes a quite connected board so I think it is the right time to semi-bluff a weak player.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Call.

Results and thoughts
 

I bet the turn, Villian called, River was a blank and went check-check, Villian had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I agree with leading the flop, and I think it actually does have a shot at taking down the pot since the flop may have missed the other players (2 small cards, 1 big card)

On the turn I think my best play is the c/r...My equity on average is probably above 40% since my pair outs will often be good, so I don't lose much by having an extra BB go in but I potentially gain a lot by winning it right there.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

*grunching*

I check/call this turn. Had you been more aggressive on the flop, then I think you could bet out, but playing it that passively I feel induces you to keep playing passively. If you hit your flush on the river, and the CO had bet the turn, I may even go for the cr, since betting that out will scream "I finally hit my hand, WOOOHHOOOOO!" where a cr says the same thing, but you'll probably get a second bet out of him.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

If you think your J outs are dead, C/R'ing a LP bettor is about the worst thing you can do. It's not a hand you want to isolate with. We want callers - and the PFR is on our right - so bet the flop.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think your J outs are dead, C/R'ing a LP bettor is about the worst thing you can do. It's not a hand you want to isolate with. We want callers - and the PFR is on our right - so bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

There was no PFR

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though? I think they are live more often than they are dead. All villian did was limp and then bet acting last on the flop, his range is very wide hre.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say 'dead' but they're not clean enough to weigh very much. The parlay of CO having nothing, none of the other passive donks having a Q or J, or no overcards like an A or K falling on the river to outdraw you when you do hit a J - all of these things don't make your J outs good "more often than not". It doesn't really matter though - either way a flop C/R is worst than C/C, which is worse than B/C.
You're playing this hand for the flush.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if there was a preflop raiser, I bet this all day everyday.

I'm pretty sure that HE4AP mentions something about the increased likelyhood of Qx, Jx top pairs in an unraised pot.

All I'm saying is this:

If you get one caller - your bet has no value. Are you going to now follow up on the turn?

If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

So the only value a bet on this flop has, is if there is a descent chance at picking up the pot.

I admit that this board is very condusive to picking up the pot (two little, one big) but expecting to pick up a pot with a single donk bet into 4 players is very, very rarely a wise play.

By making this play, I'm expecting to get snapped a lot. When this happens, the times when I have a good shot at picking up the pot on a semi bluff, I'm more likely to get called.

Aggression and semi bluffing are great (necessary) strategies. I think there are better places for them than this spot.


BTW. All I was saying with the c\r&gt;flop donk is:
If you wanted to seriously take this pot down without seeing the river - that would be the best way.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say 'dead' but they're not clean enough to weigh very much. The parlay of CO having nothing, none of the other passive donks having a Q or J, or no overcards like an A or K falling on the river to outdraw you when you do hit a J - all of these things don't make your J outs good "more often than not". It doesn't really matter though - either way a flop C/R is worst than C/C, which is worse than B/C.
You're playing this hand for the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Why are we putting a bunch of limpers on a Qx hand on a Qxx flop? Why would someone with Jx call you on this flop with no draw and no pair and an overcard out?

If the flop gets checked through, you shouldn't be too happy because you're putting yourself into a close decision on the turn where you might be only getting 3-1 to call a turn bet.

Also, why do you underestimate that people will fold in an unraised pot with a pretty drawless board?

I think checkraising is a bad plan since you can't count on anyone to bet. Also, checkraising and then check-calling the turn allows your opponent to play their hand perfectly.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

I bet this flop too, and to be honest I don't really care much what happens after I lead off.

If I get called by 2+ players, my bet was for value and I'm happy.

If I get called by only one player, I am leading any turn card and I fully expect to pick up this pot often enough to make this +EV.

If I get called by zero players, it's all good.

If I get raised, I can either call (most likely on this board) or reraise if I think I can get callers.

The only bad scenario for me is if the guy to my immediate left raises and drives everybody else out. Admittedly, that sucks, but every other possible scenario is good for me.

This hand is actually a good illustration of why I don't like checking these hands OOP. On a ragged board like this against passives, it's very predictable that it gets checked around to the bozo on the button who takes a stab at the pot, and now what can I do? I can't raise for value without driving everyone else out, and I have no fold equity. The only slim advantage here is the possibility of check-raising if I hit my draw, but I've already forfeited some value bets to get myself into this position.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - so check the turn. There's no rule that says you can't do that after betting the flop.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

[/ QUOTE ]
someone has to bet for this to happen. just because they call does not mean they will bet. however, if you bet, you'll likely get those callers.

there have been some threads lately where i've suggested checking a flopped flush draw or oesd. i remember specifically in the TJ on a KQx flop thread, i said if i were to act first in a 5-way field, i would bet that hand.

well here we are, 5-way, first to act with a draw of similar strength. in this hand there is even less chance of being raised on the flop, so betting looks even better.

you can't only bet made hands...

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you get one caller - your bet has no value. Are you going to now follow up on the turn?

If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

So the only value a bet on this flop has, is if there is a descent chance at picking up the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not as easy as: "I got 2 callers by betting, so I should've C/R'd and gotten 2 callers". You don't know where the bet is going to come from, or if anybody will bet. If the bet comes from your right and you C/R, you're just making it more likely to get it H/U on the turn than if you had just bet yourself.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - so check the turn. There's no rule that says you can't do that after betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the intention of calling or raising? The issue I'm getting at is this: I know where I'm at on the turn, but my opponent very likely doesn't know where he is at. I know I'm behind, and I know it very likely isn't by that much (in terms of equity). Isn't it worth it to risk a small mistake (putting in multiple bets on the turn as a slight underdog) to potentially induce a big mistake on my opponent's part? If I didn't pick up the OESD I would say that my equity is so low that I lose too much by putting in 2 (or possibly 3) bets on the turn, but I think the FE makes it worthwhile for me to try a c/r in this case.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we putting a bunch of limpers on a Qx hand on a Qxx flop? Why would someone with Jx call you on this flop with no draw and no pair and an overcard out?

[/ QUOTE ]

By saying this, are you agreeing with me that any callers have Hero in bad shape?

[ QUOTE ]

If the flop gets checked through, you shouldn't be too happy because you're putting yourself into a close decision on the turn where you might be only getting 3-1 to call a turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to be very happy. I don't know why you wouldn't be.

The only situation that would make me unhappy, is if had Hero bet, he gets 3 callers, followed by a LP raise, Hero 3bets and everyone calls.

EV of bet\3betting =
(.35*12) - 3 = 1.2

EV of being granted equity for free =
(.19*5.5) - 0 = 1.045

Even if this bet\3bet occurred - you may have missed an opportunity to c\r\cap.

I'm definitely not making a -EV bet on the flop to make calling the turn correct. If I don't have the odds to call...I'm not calling.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, why do you underestimate that people will fold in an unraised pot with a pretty drawless board?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the biggest sticking point for me. I must be severely underestimating the chance that everyone folds.

[ QUOTE ]

I think checkraising is a bad plan since you can't count on anyone to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, I'm not unhappy if nobody does.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, checkraising and then check-calling the turn allows your opponent to play their hand perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only advocate this line with &gt;2 villians. In which case, Hero plays his hand perfectly. It's one of the villians who is losing money (unless one has a higher flush draw).


I don't know if my EV calculations are correct, but they're on the right track (I'm still waiting for Yao's book).

If anyone can do the full EV calculations I think we'd all benefit. I also think that someone is going to be very surprised at the frequency we require all opponents to fold for this bet to be +EV.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

You get two callers and you're getting 2-1 on your money.

You get 1 caller, a bet on Turn may win pot.

You get no callers, you take home the bacon.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Is seems like every person advocating a bet is trying to have their cake and eat it too.

Is this a semi- bluff or a value bet?

Make up your mind.

I don't see this as a semi bluff. There needs to be a reasonable chance that everyone folds for this to be correct.
I've already admitted that I could be severely underestimating this frequency. But for me, a general rule of not trying to semibluff 4 villians has done me well.

If it's a value bet, you expect two callers.

What is someone calling this flop with?
This is what I don't understand....
You've already said that this is a good flop to bet because of the lack of legitimate calling hands.

Does middle pair call your bet, but not bet it?
Does top pair only call this bet and not raise?
Does bottom pair call your bet, but not someone elses?


I think the most likely outcomes after betting this flop, leave your bet with no or less value.
ie. one caller, one raiser or 2 villians you could have c\r anyway.

After checking, the most likely outcomes
checking through, c\r opportunity, or the situation that occurs in the OP.

I prefer the checking options.

<font color="blue">
It may seem after some of my recent posts on the subject that I never advocate betting a draw. This would be a mistake to assume.

1. If there was one (preferably two) less villians in this case - I bet. (semi-bluff)
2. If there was a PFR is late position - I bet.(value)
3. If the board was more connected - I bet. (value)

I think you have to make a clear distinction between which you are trying to achieve. </font>

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
By saying this, are you agreeing with me that any callers have Hero in bad shape?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I'm not agreeing. You will be called by middle pairs, any pair on this flop, straight draws that don't include a J, etc. You will not be in terrible shape if called here, you'll probably have 12 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be very happy. I don't know why you wouldn't be.

The only situation that would make me unhappy, is if had Hero bet, he gets 3 callers, followed by a LP raise, Hero 3bets and everyone calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't play micro-limits, so I may be wrong here, but this seems like a fantasy flop action. On this board, what hands are calling 2-bets cold after all that raising? The check-raise cap oppurtunity seems completely ridiculous.

I don't quite understand why you're so happy if the flop gets checked through. Could you explain?

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]

you can't only bet made hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

See above in blue.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be very happy. I don't know why you wouldn't be.

The only situation that would make me unhappy, is if had Hero bet, he gets 3 callers, followed by a LP raise, Hero 3bets and everyone calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't play micro-limits, so I may be wrong here, but this seems like a fantasy flop action. On this board, what hands are calling 2-bets cold after all that raising? The check-raise cap oppurtunity seems completely ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, this is a fantasy situation. I was trying unsuccessfully to make a point.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't quite understand why you're so happy if the flop gets checked through. Could you explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

It goes back the EV equation from before.

The pot is 5.5sb. Hero is definitely behind at this point but Hero has ~35% (flop to river) equity, without a made hand.

If checked through, Hero is granted (by the current leading hand) his chance to make the best hand for free.

Hero will make his hand 19% by the turn.

19% of 5.5sb granted for free = .19*5.5 = 1.045sb.

Having this checked through is marvellous.

Now outside of callers and bettors the only other options are checking through or everyone folding to your bet.

Everyone folding to you bet wins 5.5sb.
Getting checked through wins 1.045sb.
So everyone needs to fold ~20% to have equal value.
I think in a field of 4 villians this is not likely.

Then, IMO, your betting and calling options are in favour of checking aswell.

Here's an excersize for everyone. I may be biased, so I'll leave it up to you.

List in order of %frequency of occurence, what you think happens after a bet and a check.

EG.

After a bet.
60% one caller.
15% one raiser
15% two callers
5% three callers
5% all folds

EDIT to say: I think it's the distribution of these percentages that makes the difference between betting and checking. These percentages will change between levels aswell but an interesting excersize nonetheless....
MAYBE EVEN WORTHY OF ITS OWN THREAD

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]

Everyone folding to you bet wins 5.5sb.
Getting checked through wins 1.045sb.
So everyone needs to fold ~20% to have equal value.
I think in a field of 4 villians this is not likely.



[/ QUOTE ]
This should actually read: ~31% to have equal value.

Hero is investing .65sb to win 5.5sb. Fold equity needs to be only ~11% but to have neutral EV, it needs to make another whole sb clear of neutral EV to have equal value.

BTW. if you estimate that there is a roughly 20% chance that everyone folds this flop. You should be making this play with ANY TWO CARDS. In fact, you should be more inclined to do it with any two cards than on draws because having the flop check through has no value for you.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Thank you for taking the time to do that analysis. You've made a convincing argument. I'm starting a thread on this in SS because you've made me doubt how standard a bet is and I'd like to hear more analysis on it.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for taking the time to do that analysis. You've made a convincing argument. I'm starting a thread on this in SS because you've made me doubt how standard a bet is and I'd like to hear more analysis on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thankyou. I appreciate a quality discussion. Always.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

This is a very good post. Hopefully it has challenged most of the board to think critically. It took me a while to think about it in order to come up with a good response. You have neglected one thing, however, and that's you're assuming there are always no bettors.

See, our EV from betting out is not just the chance that we fold everyone. We have our fold equity PLUS our current equity in the pot. In this case, the pot is 5.5 SB. If it gets checked through, our EV (to showdown, with no furhter betting) is 35% of 5.5 SB, or 1.925 SB. If we bet out, our EV is, instead:

P(no callers) * (5.5 SB) + P(1 caller)*(0.35*(7.5 SB)-1) + P(2 callers)*(0.35*(8.5 SB)-1) + ... + P(HU raised pot)*(0.35*(9.5 SB)-2) + P(3 way raised pot)*(0.35*(11.5 SB)-2) + ... + P(3-way, 3-bet pot)*(0.35*(14.5 SB)-3) + ...

A similarly more rigorous calculation of our EV for checking would be:

P(0 bettors)*0.35*(5.5 SB) + P(1 bettor HU)*(0.35*(7.5 SB)-1) + P(1 bettor, 3-way)*(0.35*(8.5 SB)-1) + ... + P(3 way raised)*(0.35*(11.5 SB)-2) + ...

Now, working further from this is difficult, and it's going to require some approximations. Let's assume that this is a loose, passive game, and all the players are the same. This implies that, for any given player P(call) &gt; P(bet) &gt; P(raise). This is a little disjoint. I might use it later, but I typed it out, and I'm going to leave it here in case I do. I see now that it's not all particularly relevant to what I'm going to say next.

Thus, P(no callers) &lt; P(no bettors). However, P(no callers) needn't be greater than or equal to 0.35 (0.19 in your example) for checking to come out ahead when comparing these two terms in the sum. Instead P(no callers) must be greater than or equal to 0.35*P(no bettors). In my estimation, I think that this condition is pretty much a wash, or perhaps slightly in favor of betting out. In a 5 way pot, usually someone will have caught a piece they like enough to bet out, or else as a late position bluff.

Now, the discussion may still be interesting when we estimate the relative sizes of the other terms. For example, it's safe to say, that P(3-way raised pot) if we check will typically be greater than P(3-way raised pot) if we bet out. OTOH, P(3-way, 3-bet) pot is greater if we bet than if we check. We also get to set the least desirable outcome, P(HU raised pot), to zero if we check, whereas it's non-zero if we bet. And yet we get to have P(fold the one remaining player on the turn) be greater if we bet than if we check. I'm undecided of yet.

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Holey crapola Wookie.

Awesome effort.

I think there's too many factors to make a feasible EV calculation possible. Which is what makes poker so great.

I also understand the points you make about the comparisons I make in my equations. If I could have come up with the rest, I would have tried.

FWIW. Shant has started his thread in Small Stakes and it's already produced this beautiful thread from the Qtip archives.
<a href="http://
<a href="http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=smallholdem&amp;Numbe r=2878462&amp;Searchpage=1&amp;Main=2878462&amp;Wo rds=%26quot%3Bsick%26quot%3B+QTip&amp;topic=&amp;S earch=true#Post2878462" target="_blank">
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=smallholdem&amp;Numbe r=2878462&amp;Searchpage=1&amp;Main=2878462&amp;Wo rds=%26quot%3Bsick%26quot%3B+QTip&amp;topic=&amp;S earch=true#Post2878462[/url]

Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
 

Though I'm not one who frequently uses the "1/2 players are idiots" rationale - you are severely overestimating your opponents IMO. People will call on a Q75 flop with any pair, gutshots, overcards, backdoor straight draws, lots of things.
If you have a LAG read on somebody to your left, then I can see checking. Without any reads, your estimation that you will get EXACTLY 1 caller 60% of the time on a bet is just absurd.

[ QUOTE ]

Does middle pair call your bet, but not bet it?
Does top pair only call this bet and not raise?
Does bottom pair call your bet, but not someone elses?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm quoting these questions not to short-change your POV, but because - correct me if I'm wrong - it is the main crux of your argument.
My answers would be:
Yes, especially if middle pair is in early position.
Yes, you should know this if you've played 1,000 hands or more of microlimit poker.
They'll probably call either, but not for 2 cold - and it will be 2 cold if you decide to C/R a LP bet.