A Post on Variance
 

I'm thinking of writing a post on variance over Thanksgiving Break and hopefully some of the solid posters will help contribute. I feel like if people understand it (actually, truly get it), then they'll be able to roll with the punches more. It's so easy to get angry at some imaginary thing when you don't understand it and think you're the unluckiest person in the world. Does this sound like a good idea? Waste of time? It just seems like so many posters struggle with this (I, of course, used to too). If we sticky it er whatever you call it, then it could be a good go-to source for people.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

i dont see how this could be a BAD idea!

honestly with the knowledge on this board it could make for a very informative read.

i know it'll help the newer players who think that all the bad beats come their way, or that just because they're up during the past 2 weeks that they should go pro.

so i say post away!

Re: A Post on Variance
 

yes!

sounds like a great idea...

Re: A Post on Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking of writing a post on variance over Thanksgiving Break and hopefully some of the solid posters will help contribute. I feel like if people understand it (actually, truly get it), then they'll be able to roll with the punches more. It's so easy to get angry at some imaginary thing when you don't understand it and think you're the unluckiest person in the world. Does this sound like a good idea? Waste of time? It just seems like so many posters struggle with this (I, of course, used to too). If we sticky it er whatever you call it, then it could be a good go-to source for people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why people have such a hard time understanding the concept of variance.

I am not sure a dumbed down post is going to help anybody that doesn't get it already.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

I think it's a great idea.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking of writing a post on variance over Thanksgiving Break and hopefully some of the solid posters will help contribute. I feel like if people understand it (actually, truly get it), then they'll be able to roll with the punches more. It's so easy to get angry at some imaginary thing when you don't understand it and think you're the unluckiest person in the world. Does this sound like a good idea? Waste of time? It just seems like so many posters struggle with this (I, of course, used to too). If we sticky it er whatever you call it, then it could be a good go-to source for people.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do it. My understanding could probably use some flexibility and broadening at any rate. All I think now is: the long run is really long, so play well and don't get caught up in individual hand results.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

Cause its all based on mathematics and that involves work and understanding. We're all lazy here. So a post with some good examples would be helpful.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

It can be a good idea ... as long as you don't write it! OOoooooh, burned! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] GG NO RE -_-;;;;;;;;;;;

Your ass is mine in SC over break.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

I own you. BTW, are you gonna be in Vegas on my birthday (aka New Years Eve)? I gotta get the plane tickets soon if you are.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

Post sounds like a great idea!

Re: A Post on Variance
 

The lease on the apartment is up December 31st. Haven't decided yet what I am doing after that. I would come with you though if you wanted and I wasn't there. We would get hooked up at Wynn.

Re: A Post on Variance
 

Not a good idea because some players will always be lucky on every hand of every day for the rest of their lives and others will never get one lucky break and everything will always go against them. They will never draw out and all of their sets will get cracked.

I think a more important post would be to help players determine what stars they were born under so they can detemine whether they're destined to a life of good fortune or bad.

For the rest of us ignorant fools who don't believe in astrology or the like I think it would be great.

Thanks

Re: A Post on Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not a good idea because some players will always be lucky on every hand of every day for the rest of their lives and others will never get one lucky break and everything will always go against them. They will never draw out and all of their sets will get cracked.

I think a more important post would be to help players determine what stars they were born under so they can detemine whether they're destined to a life of good fortune or bad.

For the rest of us ignorant fools who don't believe in astrology or the like I think it would be great.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a joke...I think? It's gotta be...

Re: A Post on Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a good idea because some players will always be lucky on every hand of every day for the rest of their lives and others will never get one lucky break and everything will always go against them. They will never draw out and all of their sets will get cracked.

I think a more important post would be to help players determine what stars they were born under so they can detemine whether they're destined to a life of good fortune or bad.

For the rest of us ignorant fools who don't believe in astrology or the like I think it would be great.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a joke...I think? It's gotta be...

[/ QUOTE ]

it's pretty obvious that it is [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: A Post on Variance
 

So, what would be the some of the concepts? Obviously hand samples won't help much since if you always make good decisions (in theory) then your negative variance would be the result of "bad beats" where the less likely outcome from the time you got your money in turned out to actually occur.

What about these.

Mean win rate and standard deviation in terms of BB/100 and BB/hour. Some interesting observations might come from identifying if super-multi-tabling yields higher or lower variance between players with similar styles and win rates.

Risk of ruin calculations relative to blinds structure, max buy-in, a player's personal variance over some sample size of hands, and total bankroll.

I think some interesting stuff could come from getting 100K hands from a PT database of LAGs with an + win rate and a TAGs with a postitive win rate for the same sample size and compare variance between styles. One would expect a larger variance for the LAG, but maybe a few samples might find no significant difference in variance.

Perhaps some calculations on how many hands at a given level is long enough to conclude with some degree of certainty (say 90%) that a positive or negative BB/100 win rate is due to something other than random variance. Is it 10K? 100K? 1000K? How does the degree of certainty increase as sample size increases with the "game" constant being same on-line site and same blind/buy-in structure.

I'll try to think up some more.