3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

MP: 64/9/1.65/48 over 350 datamined hands

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.17 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.17 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.17 BB.

Does anyone raise somewhere like the turn? Does anyone fold somewhere like the river?

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

If you disrespect this guy enough to call him all the way down I'd start disrespecting him earlier and just raise the flop and see what happens.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

Do you have any specific reads on this guy? Is he addicted to donk?

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any specific reads on this guy? Is he addicted to donk?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing really. I was 6 tabling at the time.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

I think it's pretty likely that if you raise anywhere, this type of player will just donk the next street anyways, possibly with a worse hand. I would call flop, call turn, and look at his WtSD/W$SD and river AF for a guess at the river (I think fold as default).

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's pretty likely that if you raise anywhere, this type of player will just donk the next street anyways, possibly with a worse hand. I would call flop, call turn, and look at his WtSD/W$SD and river AF for a guess at the river (I think fold as default).

[/ QUOTE ]

River AF takes a long time to converge I would think, more then 350 hands. WtSD/W$SD 48/41

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

Looks ok to me.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

[ QUOTE ]
River AF takes a long time to converge I would think, more then 350 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but if it was really high it would be a good indication that he was aggressive on the river, and if it was pretty low it would give you a reasonable guess that he was not extremely aggressive on the river. Just because it is not statistically significant for some arbitrary bounds of convergence, does not mean that it cannot aid us in a guess.

[ QUOTE ]
WtSD/W$SD 48/41

[/ QUOTE ]

I would make a probably slightly -EV call, and make a note for him playing whatever he had the way he did.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

[ QUOTE ]
make a note for him playing whatever he had the way he did.

[/ QUOTE ]

87 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

You don't have good reads as per the donk bet so fold the turn. If you call the turn then you shouldn't fold the river. (I keep a note of players who raise PF, call flop &amp; turn and then fold the river UI and I bet them with any 2.)

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

I would raise the flop in hopes of a free turn card with the intention of folding the river UI or debating a crying call on the river.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you?

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you?

[/ QUOTE ]
You assume too much. Villain could be either bluffing or playing trips here. A pair may be most likely but it isn't nearly guarenteed.

Villain is not folding a better hand so you are at best pushing him off a bluff with outs instead of collecting a bluff bet on the river. Small gain at best and often a small loss.

You could easily be 3-bet by a king in which case you lose nearly an entire BB (compared to calling down) whether you call or fold.

It's also possible Villain won't bet a small pair on the river, especially if the third club comes or another card drops into the T7 split. It sucks to buy a losing showdown that would have been free.

A good compromise play is to call the turn and then look at the river. If you catch a counterfeiting card like T or 7 then definitely call. If you catch a scary card like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he bets anyway then give up. If it comes down somewhere in the middle use your judgment.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

Raise the flop and he will call then see what he does on the turn. If he checks to you which he probably will whether he has a King or not bet, and he will either fold or raise. And if he calls you are beat then.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

I don't like raising the flop in hopes that this guy will check the turn. He just donked the flop into a PFR and 3-bet.

Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
 

this is a very good post, but I disagree with you that villain will check all the rivers you mentioned.

I think the players donking after this preflop action will donk any draw scare card at least.

FWIW, I saw a player in the exact same situation (holding mid flop pair) donking the river after I bluffraised the turn with a lot of outs.