Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO (t6175)
Button (t8310)
Hero (t8460)
BB (t8051)
UTG (t8890)
UTG+1 (t5600)
MP1 (t9280)
MP2 (t3030)
MP3 (t5444)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t210) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t6085</font>, Hero ??


Don't know much about villain. What you guys think?

Villains comments after the hand in white:

<font color="white">
crankyman [observer]: the plague of idiots continues to plauge me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img](

crankyman [observer]: i was totall right, the moron had nothing


crankyman [observer]: his bet told me that he had nothing, which is exactly what he had
crankyman [observer]: well tiger, I do have an EPT final table, a WSOPC event win, and couple other sunday final tables so ...
</font>

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

Once you get here I think you have to call. You are calling around 4400 into around 8k.
Hand 1: 44.2414 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { AhJh }
Hand 2: 55.7586 % [ 00.56 00.00 ] { AA-77, 44, 22, A7s }

Even against the bad range:
Hand 1: 38.5842 % [ 00.38 00.00 ] { AhJh }
Hand 2: 61.4158 % [ 00.61 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, 77, 44, 22, A7s }

That said, maybe we should try not to get here. I happened to be browsing and wanted to reply, give me a few minutes to think about a better line.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

He sounds pretty dissapointed that you didn't call imho. You are either a slight dog / slight favorite vs an overpair, or 3:1 dog vs a set here. You are getting 1.7:1 on your money, and I certainly don't think he has the set here enough to warrant a fold. I make the call.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

Looks like he really doesn't want you drawing, so maybe A7s or 77, 44, 22, or an overpair. I'd probably call and hope to suck out.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

Why do I think Exit called?

Anyway, 10 clear cut outs (including the runner-runner str8 draw) makes Villain slightly better than 3:2 ... and you're getting 1.7:1, and there's always a fraction of a chance hitting an Ace might do it for you.

Clear call, though I can't tell if the double-semi-bluff is good play or overly aggressive.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I find whenever someone brags about how awesome they are they... aren't.

That said, you've got to call 4400 to win about 7800, give or take. I don't see you as 2:1 or worse against any range he could have.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

It's close, it really looks by the line that he has a set there, or an overpair. If the overpair is 88-TT, then a call is definitely right here, with a flush draw, 2 overs, and runner runner straight draw.

Then again, in his eyes, you don't likely have AA-QQ because those reraise pf, and JJ-88 would likely be worried of an overpair after his reraise on flop and would either call or fold, not reraise. A set might reraise there, but would likely flat call to try to get more money out of him, there are no made straights on the board, and a hand like A7 isn't likely to reraise either.

If I was villian, your range would either be flush draw, flush draw+pair of 2's, flush draw+straight draw (unlikely since you called raise though on both of those unless he had no reads on you) overpair that is not AA-QQ, and not much else (possibly set).

He either is bluffing huge here, or has you beat. I doubt you are getting odds on just the flush, and since you don't likely have overs as outs, its probably a good fold. Can't blame a call though. What did he have?

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

[ QUOTE ]
Clear call, though I can't tell if the double-semi-bluff is good play or overly aggressive.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I called, he had QT, and i held up. Then he flipped out on me.



I think it was good, i can't imagine that he plays a set this hard, and i'm favorite vs pairs &lt;JJ, and not in terrible shape vs other hands either.

And i bet out, so that i could 3 bet if he raised me, but maybe that wasnt the best.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

that dude is the idiot. he should not be bluffing with QT facing a reraise. you played it fine exit.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I don't like the re-raise one bit. Presumably, you re-raised to 1600 to take the pot from him right there, as there is really no value in putting in the raise. But if you think you can take the pot from him on the flop, why not just call his raise to 450, see a turn, and if you miss, try to check raise him there. You are leaving yourself with tough decisions by re-raising on the flop. If he folds, then great. But he could re-raise, which puts you in a very uncomfortable spot. But even worse, IMO, is if he just calls. Then the turn play becomes troublesome when you miss. I believe you have to fold for all his chips here though. Sure, you have 6 overcards, but they might not be good. I would consider them as 3 outs, plus all the flush cards, so not getting the odds to call.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I believe Hero reraised here willing to call a subsequent all in.

Calling the initial reraise leads to difficult decisions on the next street, should Hero not hit a card on the turn.

WHY NOT A SET?
 

I have read a few posts totally discounting the possibility that villian has a set. That seems ridiculous to me. With the flush draw out there, betting upfront with a set is pretty standard. Nothing wrong with 3x raise on flop, and then once you re-raise, he gets the impression that you want to roll 'em, so pushes all-in.

Also, the fact that his comments to Exit say crankyman [observer] should indicate that he busted on the hand. So don't know why people assumed Exit folded.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I disagree. I think the turn play is easier with the pot fairly small and stacks pretty deep. I think Hero got lucky here that the villain was drawing really thin. But throw in one or two hands where villain makes this play with air, and i don't think he's getting the right odds against the range.

However, since this is probably a rebuy tourney, it may change the play a little, as losing this hand doesnt cripple you for the rest of the tourney and the villain may make this play with air with more than 2 hands.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

[ QUOTE ]

And i bet out, so that i could 3 bet if he raised me, but maybe that wasnt the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's fine in general, but you should set up your bets such that you're the one pushing (and thus can fold out hands that are ahead or 50/50 against you). Since it's pretty much impossible to do that with these stacks, I think there are better lines.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I think the turn play is easier with the pot fairly small and stacks pretty deep. I think Hero got lucky here that the villain was drawing really thin. But throw in one or two hands where villain makes this play with air, and i don't think he's getting the right odds against the range.

However, since this is probably a rebuy tourney, it may change the play a little, as losing this hand doesnt cripple you for the rest of the tourney and the villain may make this play with air with more than 2 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured it for a deep stack tourney with everyones stack being above 5K...

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I'm glad 3498573475 people agreed with my simple calculations to call the shove. I don't think this tells us how to play the hand optimally. After all hero could have 32o and 5k chips, hero bets 4999 chips, should hero call a shove? Your answer doesn't tell us much about whether hero should have bet!

[note: I am ignoring the results here, I still think my original ranges are fine once the action progresses as it did and my range for when the flop hits is certain to not include q10]

You are putting money in as a dog to villain's range and with no fold equity. This may be unavoidable and acceptable to due odds but let's look at the entire line. I suspect it will come down to the 3-bet.

Betting the flop seems right. Villain is likely to fold aq and ak right there. We may get a free turn card. We may get money in the pot while we have an equity edge.

Once villain raises though I'm not sure I like 3-betting. What are you going to do if the villain cold calls and the turn blanks? If he's smart and you check the turn he will pot it. What if an ace or jack comes? You are deep and your pot equity is not overwhelming. Neither is your folding equity once you get raised.

I think the key here is that if you just call you have a lot of implied odds. The pot is small relative to your stacks and the villain has a hand he can't get away from easily. He will probably be forced to call block-ish bets if you pair (or raise them, allowing you to fold vs a set or a7 that became aces up). If you make a flush at some point he is going to be forced to pay off at least one value bet.

So anyway I bet/call the flop reluctantly. I am not at all sure about this and hopefully a really great player can post a detailed response because I've been mishandling big draws with deep stacks recently. (See my post the other day where I made a questionable turn semibluff.)

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

I realized this after I posted.

If it's a deep stack, then i think you lean even more towards folding, as you don't need to be making these types of plays in marginal spots. Especially not with 15/30 blinds.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

[ QUOTE ]

If it's a deep stack, then i think you lean even more towards folding, as you don't need to be making these types of plays in marginal spots. Especially not with 15/30 blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

People need to stop making this argument. We play each hand to squeeze EV out of it. We don't play each hand waiting for the best +EV situation possible.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

So if you were given the option to put all of your chips in the pot as a 51% favorite on every hand of the tournament, you would do so?

Even if calling here is +EV, it is only by a slight margin, and given it's a deep stack tourney, your $EV may go down slightly, but your variance will go down so significantly that it is in your best interest to wait for a better spot.

That's assuming its +EV. I think its -EV to call.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

really? what range are you putting this guuy on?

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

GO MAKE YOUR OWN THREAD ABOUT THIS CRAP. And maybe in the beginner forum or poker theory or reply to the recent ones here relating to that cardplayer article. Basically you are very wrong and even if you were right about better opportunities and all that you'd still be wrong because a tournament starts every 15 minutes on pokerstars. You can "reload" like in a cash game by joining a new one and use your supposedly better than a standard edge skills in another tournament.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

Disregard the weak/tight gentleman. It is a MUST CALL. There are only half a dozen players on pokerstars I'd put on {77, 44, 22} here. Against other possible hands you have the right price.

Re: Overcards + Flush draw Hmmmmm
 

[ QUOTE ]
So if you were given the option to put all of your chips in the pot as a 51% favorite on every hand of the tournament, you would do so?

Even if calling here is +EV, it is only by a slight margin, and given it's a deep stack tourney, your $EV may go down slightly, but your variance will go down so significantly that it is in your best interest to wait for a better spot.

That's assuming its +EV. I think its -EV to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you realize hero is getting 1.7:1 on his money? He doesnt need to be a favorite to win to make the play profitable, or +EV. This is a pretty clear call once we are put in that spot.