tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

folded to me on the button, I raise KQo. Small blind unknown 3 bets, bb who is 24/12/2.5 cold calls. I call.
Flop KJ6 rainbow. sb checks, bb bets, I raise. sb folds, bb calls.
Turn offsuit 7. check, bet, call.
River T and he checkraises me. I fold.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

i fold, tuff with top pair but wat does he call u with pf that u are ahead of?

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop...
That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river???
Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts...
I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down.
He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely.
Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board.
Good Luck

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop...
That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river???
Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts...
I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down.
He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely.
Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board.
Good Luck

[/ QUOTE ]

You really wan't him to miss his value bet on the river? That seems bad. As for whether or not to pay off the check raise... You need to be good 1 in 11, and although I do agree that he could be bluffing occasionally, I think there are far too many possibilities of hands that beat you. The only reason to call would be if you were willing to take a slight -EV hit to get a better understanding of how your opponent plays his cards. I think you might be good 1 in 20 here (random guess, I could calculate more exactly, but I think this is a fair guess), so if you are willing to pay somewhere around .5 BB, maybe a bit less, to get to know your opponent better, by all means do it. I think this is a fold though.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Good fold.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

The title of your post says tough fold or standard, I believe that the standard play should be to call this checkraise with your top pair hand getting 11.5-1. I also think this is especially true online. Many people in real life do not have the nerve to checkraise bluff the river so a checkraise on the river in a live game usually spells doom, but people checkraise bluff online all the time. Will your hand be good here more than 8% of the time in the virtual world? I think so, this is an autocall IMO when I'm online with no read on my opponent. By the way, what exactly is your opponent representing here? Looking at his stats, He cannot have AA,KK,JJ becuz he wouldve capped preflop, He cannot have 66,77 becuz he likely wouldve been more aggressive on an earlier street, He also may not be loose enough to have KT or JT nor dumb enough to have TT. So what hand is left here? Answer: AQ, thats basically the hand he is representing in my eyes. Does this hand make sense given the play of the hand? Sure it does, He CC'd preflop cuz its not good enough to cap in his opinion, he bet the flop cuz he might have the best hand and he also has a decent draw, and he check/called the turn cuz he felt he had 7-10 outs to beat your hand....But this is only one hand!! I cant find another hand that makes sense given how this hand played out. If there were many other hands this guy could have that beat my top pair hand I might be more apt to fold, but Im not gonna let one hand stop me from calling. But you know what? all this analysis is really just a waste of time becuz you dont need to think about things that deeply to make the right decision....This is what you should be thinking on the river. "I have top pair, excellent kicker, my opponent checks, I am going to bet for value, he checkraises, this is not a good sign, I am getting 11.5-1 to call, I have no read on my opponent,I know my hand will be good enough more than 8% of the time given the aggessive/tricky nature of many online players, Therefore I call, becuz this call will make me money in the long run and I like money."

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Nice post. Still a tough choice. I called in sim. sits. like this today 4 times and each of the 4 instances I caught a bluff.

Brian R

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

I think against any reasonable player this is a fold. But your average party 30 player isn't reasonable, so you should call.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

standard play might look like this: {7, 92, 1}

but I don't think he's check-raising often enough, so I'd try to take advantage of this by folding more: {20, 80, 0}

I don't think he's ever folding two pair, so a 3-bet from me would always be two pair or better and never a bluff. If he played better, he could take some tiny advantage of this, but he never will.

good luck.
eric

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop...
That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river???
Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts...
I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down.
He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely.
Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board.
Good Luck

[/ QUOTE ]
dude, this is an aggresive internet game... he is not "hoping you fold KJ" unless he is on crack...
the majority of the time, he has KT/JT here (AQ also possible), so i would fold, but it does put a knot in my stomach to TPGK for one bet on the river on party.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
bb who is 24/12/2.5 cold calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd call, 2.5 is a big number, pot is big, and it looks a little like he might have QT to me.

FWIW, I do like picking off river bluffs.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Lots of legit hands he could have; few bluff hands and very little hope of you folding. Fold, i don't think it's that close.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Who thinks I should just check the river? The only hands that it seems like he could have and pay me off with are QJ and AJ.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
it seems like he could have and pay me off with are QJ and AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
those are his two most likely hands for obvious reasons.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who thinks I should just check the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know him to be tricky I would check behind, otherwise bet. Against an unknown I think this is a bet.

I assume you call if he bets out on the river?

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who thinks I should just check the river? The only hands that it seems like he could have and pay me off with are QJ and AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

check if u hate money

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

I would bet the river and call the check/raise expecting to lose, but win enough times to make calling correct.

To those who say you should fold because your probably beat, this doesn't matter to me. If I bet any hand for value on the river and you raise me, I'm going to call every time unless I can specifically put you on a hand that got there. This is your reward for sucking out. But don't EVER think you're going to mouse me out of an 11 big bet pot with trickery.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

i think this is a routine fold.. as for checking the river...... i dont like it. he may even payoff with a PP or AT or some random trash

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river and call the check/raise expecting to lose, but win enough times to make calling correct.

To those who say you should fold because your probably beat, this doesn't matter to me. If I bet any hand for value on the river and you raise me, I'm going to call every time unless I can specifically put you on a hand that got there. This is your reward for sucking out. But don't EVER think you're going to mouse me out of an 11 big bet pot with trickery.

[/ QUOTE ]

In hands like these your thoughts of 'some of the posters here are so scared of getting outplayed that they wont fold any hands that have the slightest chance of winning' echo in my head.

Even if this was a player who is good enough to consider a river checkraise this is not a good place to do it. We pretty much have the bottom hand of our shania and half the posters here don't want to fold that. THEN in to add to that, he has a lot of legit hands, KT AQ TJ, protecting his bluff, and continuing, some of his hands, KQ, have showdown value and very very very rarely do hands with showdown value bluff rather that simply and easily call. So, there's KT AQ JT that are legit, KQ that has showdown value, leaving only QT as the bluff hand (about 1/5 of his range) of which 1) he probably isn't a player to bluff raise (as most aren't) and 2) even if he is a player with bluff river raise in his poker skills this probably isn't a place for the play.

So if he has QT say you run into a player who will bluff raise this hand 1/10 against his total range you will be good roughly 1/40.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

This particular river card is so bad for you (when he check raises) that this fold is neccessary. J10, AQ, K10, etc. not to mention all the hands that had you beat before.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

i would fold here. that is KT or JT like every time.

fwiw i value bet this river and hope to get called by AJ, QJ or maybe some type of donktastic hand like Kx, Jx.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

This is a really lousy board to bluff raise the river on, right? This just isn't a spot where I expect people to make that play.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

This fold is standard IMO, but that doesn't mean it's easy to fold TPGK for 1 bet on the river. That said, with the action here, you are ahead about never.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

I've seen this "shania" thing mentioned a couple of times and I'm still not quite sure what it means. Someone referenced a link once, but I never got around to looking it up. I'd like to learn more about it. Can you point me to a link/book on it?



<font color="blue">Even if this was a player who is good enough to consider a river checkraise this is not a good place to do it. </font>

Isn't this a bit of circular reasoning? A player who is good enough to c/r, is good enough to realize this is not a good spot for it, is good enough to c/r!!

I won't argue too hard, because what you're saying makes all the sense in the world, and what I'm saying might not. But it's just my game. When I bet the river last to act, I am doing so because I think the value of my hand warrants a bet. When check/raised, the value of my hand goes down to be sure, but not so much as to cause me to fold without very good reason. That he isn't likely to c/r a worse hand is NOT a good enough reason ESPECIALLY on Party Poker and/or against someone I don't know. I think we've all seen too many weird plays on Party to comfortably lay down an 11 big bet pot for one more.

Calling costs only a bet and he is entitled to it for haning in there and sucking out. But I also want to make that bet the next time, and the time after that. And I want to do so without fear of being check/raised or worrying about whether I might a tight fold the last time, etc.

But please tell me more about this Shania.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

I think the pot is big enough to call. I have called in similar situations before thinking for sure he got there and it was a pure bluff. Also (and maybe most important), I don't think you want others taking note that you can be pushed out of a big pot heads up on the river.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the pot is big enough to call. I have called in similar situations before thinking for sure he got there and it was a pure bluff. Also (and maybe most important), I don't think you want others taking note that you can be pushed out of a big pot heads up on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too worried about this. Nobody is paying attention, and I rarely fold anyway. It is probably better for me if they take shots on the river.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

2.5 AF is pretty high. Do you have in information on his c/r %, and how often he wins a showdown after he does this? I'd have to weigh that heavily into the decision here, if it were available. Also, I'm a weak river nittling, but if I can't call a c/r against a 2.5 AF guy, i'm not betting the river.

lf

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
This fold is standard IMO, but that doesn't mean it's easy to fold TPGK for 1 bet on the river. That said, with the action here, you are ahead about never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river and call the check/raise expecting to lose, but win enough times to make calling correct.

To those who say you should fold because your probably beat, this doesn't matter to me. If I bet any hand for value on the river and you raise me, I'm going to call every time unless I can specifically put you on a hand that got there. This is your reward for sucking out. But don't EVER think you're going to mouse me out of an 11 big bet pot with trickery.

[/ QUOTE ]
This quote is basically the attitude I take when Im in an 11BB pot, playing online against an unknown. I will never fold in this situation since I am too convinced that a call will make me money in the long run.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

After reading through the thread, I still think my fold was the better play.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

You are probably right, but I also think it depends what you make of his flop bet. There's some players that are much more likely to bet a draw than a made hand in this situation on the flop.

Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
 

Very good point Lestat. This hand was correctly betted for value and i thing once in 11 times you will be ahead here. Still don't see any value in calling?