Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Villain is 28/5/1.3. Seems straightforward and decent, and when he checks behind on the turn I'm pretty confident that means he wants to play a small pot. I haven't been at the table very long, but villain has probably picked up on me being very loose (40/30 or so during the hands I've had at the table.) So he probably thinks I suck.

Just plain stupid? :

Hero ($407.70)
BB ($83.20)
UTG ($550.04)
MP ($353.60)
CO :#A500AF(villain)/ ($713.62)
Button ($367.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO :#A500AF(villain)/ raises to $15</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $13, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $50</font>, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($134) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, villain checks.

River: ($134) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $342.7 (all-in)</font>

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

Why not just pot it? If you bet 130, this has to work slightly better than 50% of the time. By betting 340, this has to work at least 75%.

Honestly, I don't see any hands folding to the overbet that call a PSB.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

I don't like it AT ALL. I see Villain as having a strong 8 50% of the time, a flush 20% of the time, and something else the rest of the time... not the odds you need.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

I actually like the bet more than a PSB. A 40/30 player(I imagine your post-flop-agg is ridicoulus aswell) will bet that river almost w/ any 2 after that action, and I for one would be very loose with my calling standards. But the over bet is very scary and alot of players freeze up when faced with it, atleast decent ones. I think villian will fold way above 50% of the time here, however I don't he'll fold as often as he needs to.

I c/f river.

Also, I'd wait for this spot until I have a hand that has absolutely no chance of winning a show down. If the river is checked through, your 8 might very well be best. So checking is +EV. Which means your bluff does not only have to be +EV, but more +EV than checking is for it to be correct.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

5% pfr, and he has a strong 8 50% of the time? wtf. And why would he check behind on the turn with a flush? I think you need to do some serious thinking about how you read hands. It should be fairly obvious that overpairs are villains most likely holdings (including JJ of course). And missed overs. Or overs that hit the jack on the river.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

How do you feel about a bet of 250? Still looks scary, and you have to succeed a lot less.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

I didn't consider that. I think that sounds like a good idea. (Or better idea than my bet anyway.)

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

This is a spot where I would at least seriously consider a bluff. His hand is well defined, and it's obvious he's uncomfortable as well, like you wrote. With your image he'd probably look you up for pot size, with a more reasonable image a pot size bet might be better. So if you're gonna bluff I think you need to overbet.

Some players tend to be calling stations even with tight stats.

Hmm, I don't know.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

If he thinks you are bad, he's not gonna put you on the 6 or the flush the way you played the hand.

Also, have you gone allin yet with villian present at the table? This move might work very often if you have never done anything like this. Otherwise he might get wise.

J river might give him the boat too.

However, his vpip is 28 and he is in the CO, so his range is probably pretty wide. Any pair, any SC, any 1gapper, any 2 big cards.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he thinks you are bad, he's not gonna put you on the 6 or the flush the way you played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ] Or the boat. Why not? I wiffed my turn cr damnit. It would sure be a bad play if I had it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, have you gone allin yet with villian present at the table?

[/ QUOTE ] No.

[ QUOTE ]
J river might give him the boat too.

[/ QUOTE ] Yes, it might. It might also give him a pair though.

[ QUOTE ]
However, his vpip is 28 and he is in the CO, so his range is probably pretty wide. Any pair, any SC, any 1gapper, any 2 big cards.

[/ QUOTE ] His pfr is 5, so I doubt it's that wide.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

If you think you need to make a big bluff on the river to win the pot, then why bother calling the flop raise?

If you want to overbet bluff the river, $200 would work just as well as $340, but it has to work much less often. $200 is still a significant overbet and most decent players will be very picky about what they call it with.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you need to make a big bluff on the river to win the pot, then why bother calling the flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ] I figured there was a decent enough chance he was on overcards to justify the call. Since I expected him to shut down on the turn and probably not bet the river either, if he didn't have anything. (I'm not sure I'm behind when I make the river push though, but I feel the only hand in his hand range that can call me is JJ (and just maybe 88 is in there, but I doubt it). And no more money is going into a pot I win at showdown. (I can't value bet, and I can't check call.)

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to overbet bluff the river, $200 would work just as well as $340, but it has to work much less often. $200 is still a significant overbet and most decent players will be very picky about what they call it with.

[/ QUOTE ] I think this is correct. About 2xpot will work close to as often as the push.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

If you think you're ahead at the river then why bluff?

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

I don't think I am ahead. I think I might very well be ahead. Like maybe 25% of the time.

edit: Probably a bit less than 25% given the jack might've hit him.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

Well, it still brings me back to my first question -- why do you call the flop raise if you feel you must bluff to win? You can't call the flop raise because you think you're ahead and then get to the river and decide you must bluff. That just doesn't make any sense.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

Not a bad play, prob bet less on river as others have said.

Also, something to think about. If you're a 40/30 player, you're much more likely to get called here than a straightforward player. You're going to maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it still brings me back to my first question -- why do you call the flop raise if you feel you must bluff to win? You can't call the flop raise because you think you're ahead and then get to the river and decide you must bluff. That just doesn't make any sense.

[/ QUOTE ] I don't have to think I'm ahead to call the flop raise. It lays me better odds than 1 to 1. And as I stated earlier, I didn't estimate the reverse implied odds (or in this case, the chance I get blown off my hand by a worse hand, since I'm folding to another bet), to be very high. Folding to the flop raise might very well be correct since this guy is a bit passive, and there is of course always a chance he'll bet again with a worse hand (+ he'll have outs when he is behind, I won't), but I didn't think it was at the time.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

For this reason, I like the push better than potting it. Not bad hand at all. If i were him, maybe I woulda folded a flush, which im guessing he called you with.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

Well imagine from his point of view. Why would you bet into the PF raiser with trips? The most common play is a check call or check raise.

He raised you, you just called. A bad player isn't smart enough to betcall, checkraise turn.

Maybe you aren't as good of a player as you think. Calling a raise with 89s out of position against a solid player is probably not very good poker. I mean, you even admit his PFR is only 5% so his range is something like, JJ-AA, AK-AQ.

He has an overpair or maybe the nutflush draw, or hes an idiot and he thinks his AK is good.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

[ QUOTE ]
He raised you, you just called. A bad player isn't smart enough to betcall, checkraise turn.

[/ QUOTE ] This is not a very clever play. Bad players do it all the time. And especially faced with a min-raise from this type of oponent, it would be far from smart.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you aren't as good of a player as you think.

[/ QUOTE ] Probably correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling a raise with 89s out of position against a solid player is probably not very good poker. I mean, you even admit his PFR is only 5% so his range is something like, JJ-AA, AK-AQ.

[/ QUOTE ] It's a bit wider than that given that he opened in the CO. But if that was the range, calling with 89s would be a good thing normaly.

Results
 

Villain paused for 15 seconds or so, and folded. I try to not show my hand unless I have to, but I think I was right to show this one.

Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
 

This is a great image play whether or not he calls and the EV isn't terrible.