Blind steal goes bad
 

Because of the loosness of most of the games where I play, I don't get a lot of practice stealing blinds and playing back at possible resteals. Sometimes I get it right, and sometimes I feel like I'm spewing. So . . . what would you do here?

Villan is 20/9/infinite, but only over about 30 hands. No blind-defense reads, and I haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

To agressive? SB and BB were reasonably tight, so I thought this had a decent chance of a successful steal.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero . . .

Raise here? Just call? Hard to see J high having much showdown value, so even assuming that both of my outs are clean, I am just barely getting odds to peel and see the turn. Fold?

Edited to reflect the fact that it is impossible for me to check raise on the flop.

Edited again -- I shouldn't post when I'm tired. I realize that (a) I have six outs if villan doesn't have a J or a T, and (b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Easy fold. No reason to assume he'll fold to a flop raise unless you've already seen him do things like that.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

I think you can justify a peel here getting 7.5:1. You'll have to fold the turn if it's not an 8,9,T or J.



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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat? Then if you spike a pair you are in an even worse spot. If he has been fairly tight, I would just throw this small pot away and wait for a better opportunity. You tried to steal, he has a real hand, just go away.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

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You're right. Man I must be tired if I can't properly multiply by two tonight.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

*grunch*

I don't mind a raise like this against tight blinds. You're going to get 3-bet once in a while, it happens.

After getting 3-bet and bet into on this flop, I fold it. I don't like my chances of drawing to a pair that could easily be no good anyway. You can't win UI, and your draw is either weak or crushed already.

If the pot was a million dollars, you'd be committed to trying for the lucky turn card, but say goodbye to this small pot and move on to the next one.

I think many aggro players know when to challenge the blinds, but get too attached to bad/dangerous flops. None of us like to wear the dress, but your steal raises won't ever be +EV if you're blowing those extra SBs.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

You can either fold it here, or smooth call zee flop and raise zee turn.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

I usually just fold the flop here

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Arg, this situation sucks, because we simply don't have enough information.

I think I would peel the flop for one. Few reasons:

1) Meta game, which doesnt matter much at this limit, but its still there. Let him know he aint taking shots.

2) I don't think he has a monster. Monsters are more likely to do a bit of slowplaying here.

3) Sometimes he'll check the turn, being scared of our smooth-call, so another free card.

But yeah, folding this isn't bad at all, considering blind wars isnt really part of this game.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Do you think villain have any reads on you. I cant tell you how many times I catch people trying to steal the blinds. They do it every freaking time the button and CO comes your way. Stealing the blinds is an excellent tool but you dont have to do it EVERY time. People will catch on and 3bet your crap hands and then a profitable play becomes an unprofitable on.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

A flop call is thin, but probably OK. I don't dislike a fold either, and just moving on. I probably call and re-evaluate (fold UI) on the turn.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat?

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You're going to get consistently run over in blind steal situations if you think this way.

(That's not to say that folding is terrible on this one particular hand. Personally I would peel, but folding is a good option too. The main thing is that you cannot fear that villain is looking at KK just because he 3-bet. Many villians will 3-bet any pair, any A, or any suited paint. You have your full complement of 6 outs against most of villain's holdings.)

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

However I fold in this situation. JT simply isnt strong enough to play against a tight player who 3-bet and without a good read I dont think players at these stakes are well versed in the blind resteal attempt, which means he is easily ahead of you.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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Do you think villain have any reads on you. I cant tell you how many times I catch people trying to steal the blinds. They do it every freaking time the button and CO comes your way. Stealing the blinds is an excellent tool but you dont have to do it EVERY time. People will catch on and 3bet your crap hands and then a profitable play becomes an unprofitable on.

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I play pretty agressively, but I'm reasonably sure that this was the first blind steal that villan saw me attempt.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

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I don't agree with this either. You have enough outs to justify a peel. You'll frequently win this hand if you spike a J or a T.

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he is easily ahead of you

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Yeah you're behind here basically 100% of the time, but you're getting the odds to take one off. Whether you want to try to push villain off his hand on the turn is a completely different decision. That decision depends on how often villain is able to find the fold button. The decision to call the flop can be viewed as just an everyday pot-odds decision.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Let's say hero peels (this is what i would do because i'm a LAG, but clearly folding is good too.)

Turn (4.25 BB): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hero...?

Are we raising the turn for value/a free showdown? This lets villain get away from an inferior hand.

Are we just calling, playing a sort of WA/WB? We hope he will either continue to bet with a worse hand or that we will lose the minimum if he has us crushed. This line risks allowing an overcard to fall on the river and beat us.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

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How important are those stats when your looking at a sample size of &lt;50 for the majority of your opponents?

Cant rely on HUD for everything.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

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How important are those stats when your looking at a sample size of &lt;50 for the majority of your opponents?

Cant rely on HUD for everything.

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um at .5/1 these stats aren't very useful, since the chances to steal/defend are low, so you need a large hand sample on a player before they are worthwhile

but as you move up, the game becomes much more about stealing/defending, and these stats become very helpful, and you get a decent idea of how they react over a much smaller sample size

kiemo: as for the idea of blindraising the turn if you call the flop .. thats a bad idea, it might be a solid play if you spike a pair, and maybe bluff a couple cards .. but to do it on all turn cards is certainly spewing .. and shows you approach these situations incorrectly

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Grunch:

I'm folding here 'cuz

1. The pot is too small
2. The flop missed both of us &amp; he bet (steal?) OOP
even though he is the BB, a single A, K, or Q all with an unpaired rag is favored over your JT off.
3. If you don't fold here, your likelihood of calling to the river is . . .?

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

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How important are those stats when your looking at a sample size of &lt;50 for the majority of your opponents?

Cant rely on HUD for everything.

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I use Partymine so I have hundreds to thousands of hands on my opponents, but as I understand it, blind stealing doesn't come into play much at these limits. Just a tip for as you move up.