How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Hi,
I come from a blackjack card counting background orinially but I've played poker on and off casually for a couple of years with mixed results. There are a couple of concepts that have always eluded me and I'm interested to hear what people think.

The first thing is how do I calculate the cost of a mistake and how do I define a mistake ?

A bad beat where I go all in heads up with AA and the other players junk wins on the river is clearly a bad beat for example.
But what if I play AK and make AAs on the flop and the guy played junk and got bottom two pair and gos all in.
Lets say hes loose so I decide on average its worth the risk
but then discover I was wrong. I lose my whole stack.

Was that a mistake ? and if so do I sit there saying well I normally make $50 per hour so that just cancelled out 6 hours work ?

Or do I use the logic ... well 3 out of 4 times that guy would have allined with a smaller hand than AA so my call was ok and I should just play on.

What about nasty traps where I flop a pretty good hand like say top trips but I'm up against somebody elses house.
I don't know the other player well enough to know any info other than hes pleased and believes he had a good hand.
i bet out aggressivly to drive out draws he raises I call things work out badly for me.

Should I withdraw from the game and consider myself unworthy. Is that a mistake that a pro wouldn't make ?

In no limit the result of a days play often hinges on a single event. Lets say I start with $200 in front of me play for 4 hours. In senario 1 lets say I play a great game and now I've got $700 and in senario 2 its the same game with the same hands but I don't play very well and there is now onlt $150 left in front of me but at the 4 hour mark a nasty trap hand comes up mabey I get dealt KK and somebody else with a big stack gets AA and goes all in. Either way im all in so my four hours worth of previous play becomes irrelevant unless I bad beat the other guy with a king of course.

With poker I find it hard to really define whats going on. I can look at my records and say I'm making $X per hour for 100 hours play but alot of the results are heavily derived from a hand full of events so am I really ?

When I really do get out played by other players I need to be able to recognise it and change games but it often hard to say.

So how can I tell for sure if I've just made a mistake and got outplayed and is there a good way of estimating how much my mistake just cost me in the long run ?

Mark.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

post qusetionable hands on 2+2

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So how can I tell for sure if I've just made a mistake and got outplayed and is there a good way of estimating how much my mistake just cost me in the long run ?

[/ QUOTE ]

1- Learn how to determine if you got your money in with the best of it.

2- Post hands in the small stakes forum.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Thats not going to answer my question. This is part of the reason poker annoys me.
Is hard to get discussion on highlevel concepts. People will ask how many people in the game was there a tight aggressive dawarf with a wooden left in mid position. Oh well I would suggest check raising but if he was if late position well thats a whole different story.

I understand pot odds I also understand that every situation is unique in some way. But im not after a detailed disscussion about a few particular hands.

The two forms of poker I have always made money from of the last couple years are live NL holdem and holdem tournaments, Internet+Live.

What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

Sometimes the pot is big and calling is a nobrainer. Othertimes I might have enough outs to justify calling.

The frustrating situations are where I have to decide right then and there if im believe Im ahead. If I think yes but the answer is no then its a huge screw up.
SO did I just make a bad play by calling or do I apply the logic .. I was wrong this time but based on this players play history I usually would have been right in this situation
so my call was ok even though went I called I had no pot odds and was a massive underdog.

Thats the concept im trying to get discussion on.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

If poker were a game of absolutes, then the fish would disappear and the math geeks would rule the game. Not good.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
how do I define a mistake ?

[/ QUOTE ]

read about sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats not going to answer my question. This is part of the reason poker annoys me.
Is hard to get discussion on highlevel concepts. People will ask how many people in the game was there a tight aggressive dawarf with a wooden left in mid position. Oh well I would suggest check raising but if he was if late position well thats a whole different story.

I understand pot odds I also understand that every situation is unique in some way. But im not after a detailed disscussion about a few particular hands.

The two forms of poker I have always made money from of the last couple years are live NL holdem and holdem tournaments, Internet+Live.

What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

Sometimes the pot is big and calling is a nobrainer. Othertimes I might have enough outs to justify calling.

The frustrating situations are where I have to decide right then and there if im believe Im ahead. If I think yes but the answer is no then its a huge screw up.
SO did I just make a bad play by calling or do I apply the logic .. I was wrong this time but based on this players play history I usually would have been right in this situation
so my call was ok even though went I called I had no pot odds and was a massive underdog.

Thats the concept im trying to get discussion on.

[/ QUOTE ]

feel free to completly disregard my opinion, but:

Poker doesn't look like the game for you. What annoys you about poker is what the rest of us love

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

I think the most important thing to understand is poker is a game with alot of complex variables.

Blackjack is a game which is ruled by math.

There are no absolutes in poker and because of that you will be stuck with difficult decisions where the varialbes are always changing.

Sorry for not giving you the answer you were looking for.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

One more thing - does anyone else find it amazing that there are so many people who get pissed off at variance and short-term unpredictability, which is responsible, over the long term, for a major part of why poker is profitable for nearly anyone not of a world class caliber?

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

I followed you until the last comment, what does world class player have to do with your statement? I would include them as well.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Basically, I meant to say that world class players are better than anyone else, and in theory, they should be able to make money whether the fish show up.

I was trying to make the point that its always best to play people worse than you, but now that I think about it, world class players get the same benefit.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome to poker.

Become good at making the right decision in that situation as well as deciding on the alternatives to calling as well as understanding and controlling what led you to be in the spot where you had to make the decision and you will be on your way to earning a lot at the game.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome to poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

And while we're on this, what strategy game against another thinking person doesn't?

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

damn, mark, so many responses and no one gave you a good answer (well, except for thabadguy).

You are asking a few different questions here.

The simplest one is the cost of a given mistake. Looking at this from a Fundemental Theorem of Poker perspective (if you don't know what this is, read Theory of Poker), you can look at the cost of a mistake by comparing your equity when you put $ in to how much you put in.

So, you get your KK all in preflop with his AA for $500 apiece. You win around 18% of the time.

Your equity here is .18($1000) = $180. You put in $500, so you just made a $320 mistake.

Now you might object, I couldn't know he had AA. Similarly, in any situation where you call on the river and lose, this sort of calculation would say you made a mistake, as your equity is 0.

The answer is that you can make the same calculation using hand ranges. So, in the KK example, say you think his range is AA-QQ. Here, your equity is around $500. You chop with KK, and get from QQ about what you lose to AA. Note that he can have QQ and AA equally often. If we throw AK in, your call is +EV... and so on.

The skill in all this is trying to make your estimate of his hand range as accurate as possible. So, perhaps you think he can have AA-QQ or AK, making your call with KK a winner, whereas he actually would only go all in with AA (making you a $320 loser).

As you get to know your opposition better, and as you improve as a player in general, your estimates will be closer to their actual holdings, allowing you to make fewer mistakes.

That should about cover it.

-muz

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

All I'm going to add to Muzungu's excellent advice is that there are various places that will run poker calculations for you

twodimes.net (web site)
pokerstove.com (download)

are both places to go to calculate the probabilities of various hands winning after seeing a flop or turn, which will let you calculate exactly how big a mistake you make by calling with an overpair vs. bottom two.

Also, pokerstove allows you to enter a hand range for an opponent, so you can get a little more sophisticated in your analysis.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So how can I tell for sure if I've just made a mistake and got outplayed and is there a good way of estimating how much my mistake just cost me in the long run ?

Mark.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you go back after your game is over and analyze the situation, you may be able to discern whether you made a mistake or not. Asking about it on here could help as well. Also, the advice about using pokerstove to see the actual numbers using hand ranges is quite useful. It's a good way to learn about % favorites in certain situations and helps you think about putting your opponent on a range of hands. As far as long term costs go, I can't give you much concrete advice other than to say that if you continue to make a similar mistake repeatedly, you're costing yourself a lot of money.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker

[/ QUOTE ]

This wont help you to determine the cost of mistake or even if given play was a mistake or not.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are no absolutes in poker

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh there are a few. Dont forget that's its math game and we dont know much about it now because its hard to analyze. It may change though.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Well, poker "can be" a game of absolutes, lets say, a tell for instance, that someone only bets with there left hand with red aces. So you "could" for 100% know, and sometimes tells like that are true, like, someone only goes all in pf with AA, like some SUPER TIGHT players, but overall poker is a game of "clues" that lead you to the "best guess." To be a winning player you have to "guess better" than your opponets. AND poker is about hand "ranges" not I know he has me beat, but rather I think he has me beat 70-80% of the time.

That exact "guessing," what you hate, is why fishies play, cause sometimes they "guess correct" and get lucky, the thing is overall odds average out, and the best player wins the money. If poker plays won EVERYDAY and fishies lost EVERYDAY then VERY FEW fishies would play. They'd go play a game they at least had a "chance."

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Putting a $/hour rate on your play is, I think, only a bad thing for your head to mess with you. Its past performance , and does not mean you can repeat it. If the world worked this way we could look at a financial share-graph for a company and predict its future based on that. As others have said its better to concentrate one hand at a time, each hand is statistically (maybe not psychologically) independent from the next.

I think having a benchmark in your head while you're playing is a very risky thing, because the moment you exceed it you'll get complacent or afraid to lose it, and when you underperform you're running a risk of going on tilt.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

Who else thinks OP should be playing limit? That game is more mechanical.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats not going to answer my question. This is part of the reason poker annoys me.
Is hard to get discussion on highlevel concepts. People will ask how many people in the game was there a tight aggressive dawarf with a wooden left in mid position. Oh well I would suggest check raising but if he was if late position well thats a whole different story.

I understand pot odds I also understand that every situation is unique in some way. But im not after a detailed disscussion about a few particular hands.

The two forms of poker I have always made money from of the last couple years are live NL holdem and holdem tournaments, Internet+Live.

What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

Sometimes the pot is big and calling is a nobrainer. Othertimes I might have enough outs to justify calling.

The frustrating situations are where I have to decide right then and there if im believe Im ahead. If I think yes but the answer is no then its a huge screw up.
SO did I just make a bad play by calling or do I apply the logic .. I was wrong this time but based on this players play history I usually would have been right in this situation
so my call was ok even though went I called I had no pot odds and was a massive underdog.

Thats the concept im trying to get discussion on.

[/ QUOTE ]

One caveat I am the dumbest guy on this board, but individual hand analysis is the key. Are you ahead most hands when the money goes in? Then you are a winning player. In Blackjack often the deck swings heavily positive and you may be doubling down with multiple hands with big bets and lose your ass. Same in poker.

One thing that helps me with suck outs is realizing that when I win when I am ahead I am winning more than I should. For instance if I am all in with AA vs KK for a $1,000 pot I am an 80% favorite, but I win $1,000 or $200 more than my EV. I put that amount in a mental bank to pay for my bad beats.

Sometimes your money will be in with the worst of it, as long as that is the exception rather than the rule you are OK. Poker is a lot like golf, the guy who hits the best worst shots is usually the better player.

Re: How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?
 

dude, read theory of poker