River raise ?
 

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Pre flop OK ?
River raise ?

Thanks Paul.

Re: River raise ?
 

Clear fold PF. I'm not CC the flop. 3-bet or fold. I'm not sure which. You must raise/call the river.

Re: River raise ?
 

Preflop I think I fold, but I don't really know how to play in the blinds, so maybe this is a raise. I really don't think you can call though.

On the flop, BB could easily be betting a draw (the first time he bets), and CO could easily be auto-raising a lot of hands that you beat. You need to follow through with your check raise.

Turn is fine, you are probably behind, but have odds to draw.

River is a must check raise. It seems you almost definetly have CO beat, as he most probably has AA, KK, AQ, KQ. BB looks like he most probably has Q9 or 22. There are 6 combos of Q9, and 3 combos of 22. In a worst case scenario, this means that 2/3 of the time you will gain 1 extra BB, and 1/3 of the time you will lose 2 BB if he reraises. In this worst case scenario, your check raise is EV neutral, but given the fact that sometimes he won't reraise his 22, and given the fact that CO does call the check raise sometimes, you clearly have an edge, and should check raise.

Re: River raise ? *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Keepitsimple

Re: River raise ?
 

i'd be questioning the play on the earlier streets before id be questioning the play on the river.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see myself ever defending more hands should I start folding this. I defend only 60% currently and I call here vs my standard opponent.

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You defend 60% of your hands in the SB against a steal? I don't think that is possible. Maybe you mean you fold SB to steal 60% of the time? Even that seems like you are playing a few too many hands from the SB against a steal. My fold SB to steal is at 85%, which I know means I am too tight from the SB, but I think 60% might be too loose, unless perhaps you are one of the best blind defeneders out there (and even then, that number seems too loose).

The top 40% of hands, according to Pokerstove are...

44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o

Plenty of those hands seem unplayable to me.

Re: River raise ?
 

OOUPS. I thought we were in the BB. I am deleting my post.

Re: River raise ?
 

3 bet PF(unless hes passive). 3 bet the flop(unless hes passive, then fold). Otherwise fold the turn. Raise the river.

Re: River raise ?
 

Thanks for the input, seems i butchered almost every street.

My thoughts are below:

PF i think this is definitely a raise to a probable steal from the CO. Not sure why i didnt 3 bet this.

Flop the initial plan was to check raise but given the action in front of me i felt i was behind to probable overpair from CO. At this point i couldnt really narrow down BB's holding and felt it could be anything from a flush draw to a set to TP.

Turn Well BB comes out firing again, im now getting a bit lost in this hand and decide i need to improve to win, hence the call

River Again i planned to check raise but didnt follow through for some reason, i had a nagging feeling that BB had a set, thanks Spicymoose for the analysis of this. The river is clearly a checkraise.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

PF i think this is definitely a raise to a probable steal from the CO. Not sure why i didnt 3 bet this.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say it is a probable steal? You did not include any reads but how probable it is depends a lot on his steal%. Also QJo is not that great HU out of position unless CO folds too easily. If he does not steal too much he is quite likely to hold an ace or a king or a PP meaning you pay 3SB to play the worst hand out of position. I think PF is a clear fold against most players.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Flop the initial plan was to check raise but given the action in front of me i felt i was behind to probable overpair from CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot just name some hands you are scared of, you have to think of what possible hands he could be holding. That means all of them; the ones you are ahead of, the ones you are behind. Yes, he could have an overpair (AA, KK), but there are not that many combos of overpairs (12). You are also behind to his possible AQ (8), and KQ (8), which hands that are far worse for you than if he had an overpair. Alternatively, he could have A9 (12), QT (8), AK (16), AcJc(1), JJ (3), TT(6). So, there are 24 hands or so that you are behind, but 46 hands you are ahead of! If you disagree with my range, that is fine, but at least come up with your own reasonable range, rather than saying something such as "I was behind to probably overpair from CO".

Re: River raise ?
 

PF-raise.
flop-raise.
turn-raise.
river-ezezraise.

no, im not kidding.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

turn-raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Please explain yourself.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

turn-raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Please explain yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]
there are lots of draws, BB can easily have the worst Q (not too mention the obvious 9, PP, BS), noone will threebet unless u are drawing dead.

value baby. u must seize it!

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

turn-raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Please explain yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]
there are lots of draws, BB can easily have the worst Q (not too mention the obvious 9, PP, BS), noone will threebet unless u are drawing dead.

value baby. u must seize it!

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think BB COULD have a worse Q, I don't think it is all that likely. He 3-bet the flop, and led into the preflop raiser/flop capper on the turn, even with you still in the pot. A 9 is less likely, a PP is even less likely, and there is almost no way he has nothing. Far more often he has us beat, and if you are suggesting that noone will 3-bet unless we are drawing dead, you are wrong. Q9, which seems like a reasonable holding might 3-bet, and the pot is getting huge, so folding to that extra bet would be wrong.

I think if you draw out a likely range for their holdings, rather than just some random cards we could be beating, I think you will see that we don't have enough equity to value-raise this turn.

Re: River raise ?
 

Ok, i dug out the stats,

CO is 41\22\1.25 attsb 77% this is only over 48 hands so doesnt mean a whole lot, although he is obviously somewhat aggro

BB is 49\4\.51 over 95 hands

Co's range must be fairly wide j10+ q10+ k8+ all aces and all pp

PF BBs range is also fairly wide and would be similar to CO

Once we get to the flop and turn action i think BB's range shrinks considerably, he is very passive and seems to like his hand a lot, so qj+, 99, 22 or kk,aa

CO could still have a wide range at this stage

Taking BBs action and stats (sorry should have posted these at the beginning) into consideration i dont think we can raise turn

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Taking BBs action and stats (sorry should have posted these at the beginning) into consideration i dont think we can raise turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads are always great, and help a lot, but I don't even think we can raise this turn against unknowns. In fact, I think there are very few reads that would allow us to check raise this turn.

I respect flawless_victory's posts, but I really don't understand how he advocates a turn raise here.

Re: River raise ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there are very few reads that would allow us to check raise this turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, previous action strongly suggests one of these players has TP beaten.

Re: River raise ?
 

(grunch) I 3-bet in SB to defend a steal. QJo plays OK multiway, so having the BB in isn't too bad, tho. I probably would have check-raised the flop, then called down a 3-bet, or bet out if he just calls. Raise the river. Two pair against a possible steal is huge.

Edit: note it plays differently if you 3-bet PF, but as played, I probably would've check-raised the flop anyway, then folded once it was two bets back to me. I don't like being in the middle of a raising war when I'm almost certaintly outkicked, drawing to probably 3 outs.