Hand vs Lautzutao
 

Hello you guys,

Lau and I were at a 2/4 6max table. The other players were pretty terrible, Lau was playing OK up to this point. I was drunk. Here is the hand.

I raise it up UTG with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Lau reraises behind me. Everone folds, and I call.

Flop (7sb) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, Check.

Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, Check.

River T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Check, Check.

Like? No likes? What would you have done?

ps; Jacks and yoghurt is not a good drink.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

*grunch*

I'm thinking about leading the turn semi-bluff style. If he calls repeat on the river. If he raises, call and c/f the river UI.

The pot is too small to be more aggro .

p.s. I would love to see you and Lau play on the same table!

Edit: Jacks and yogurt - yikes!

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

You played it well, he played it like sh!t.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

I think this is fine. Semi-bluffing the turn wouldn't be wrong, and neither would taking a shot at the river. But it's not something you need to do every time you're in this situation.



[ QUOTE ]
ps; Jacks and yoghurt is not a good drink.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I needed to be told this...

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

Did you think KQ had showdown value?

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

I take a shot on the turn. we are getting 3.5:1 on a bluff with several outs to improve on the river.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
I take a shot on the turn. we are getting 3.5:1 on a bluff with several outs to improve on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but if he raised, I think I would have thrown up in my mouth.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I take a shot on the turn. we are getting 3.5:1 on a bluff with several outs to improve on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but if he raised, I think I would have thrown up in my mouth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he's capable of this play with anything less than KK, and even then I doubt he would give a free card to you. Him raising the turn only becomes problematic if he will do it with a wide range of hands (nearly all of which we will be behind to). I do not think he is capable of this.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I take a shot on the turn. we are getting 3.5:1 on a bluff with several outs to improve on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but if he raised, I think I would have thrown up in my mouth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he's capable of this play with anything less than KK, and even then I doubt he would give a free card to you. Him raising the turn only becomes problematic if he will do it with a wide range of hands (nearly all of which we will be behind to). I do not think he is capable of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, we were chatting on this table so we know who each other were. I at least was thinking what he thought that I thought he had. I was actually hoping he would bet the turn so I could checkraise him.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if he whiffed he folds here almost every time...can you run some numbers on this, comparing the c/r with the bet? I'd say his likely range is KK-AA, AQs, AKo, AKs. I think a lower pp bets the flop, and a worse Ax hand wouldn't 3bet pf. Feel free to make any assumptions you see fit

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if he whiffed he folds here almost every time...can you run some numbers on this, comparing the c/r with the bet? I'd say his likely range is KK-AA, AQs, AKo, AKs. I think a lower pp bets the flop, and a worse Ax hand wouldn't 3bet pf. Feel free to make any assumptions you see fit

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to, except for the fact that I can't run numbers. I have no idea. Is there some one out there that can run numbers? David? Aaron? Anybody??

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

KK: 3 combos, AA: 9 combos, AK: 12 combos, AQs: 3 combos

If we c/r turn: we win 4.5BB 11/27 times immediately (when he has AK, AQs with no heart)
we win 6BB 9/27*1/5 times when he has AA or KK with no heart and we river a flush
we lose 3BB 4/27 times when he has AK with Ah, or AQh
we lose 2BB 9/27*4/5 times when he has AA or KK with no heart and we do not river a flush
we lose 3.5BB 3/27 times when he has AA with a heart

= 1.8 + .4 - .4 - .5 - .4 = +.9BB on a turn c/r.

Above I assumed:

-we c/f river UI if he calls turn c/r
-he 3-bets AA with a heart on turn
-he folds to c/r with AK/AQs and no heart
-he does not 3-bet KK or AA on turn without a heart...if he does, this loses some value

Ok, there's the style, now somebody do a similar analysis for simply betting the turn.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

"grunching"

he should autobet the flop.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
"grunching"

he should autobet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah this is true most of the time. If I have KK or AA with a heart I will sometimes wait and try to get other guy to bet the turn so I can raise.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn?

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
"grunching"

he should autobet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you don't mean me.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really suck at math. I mean really. So I greatly appreciate your effort with the c/r on the turn. Less than 1BB. It seems really slim looking at it that way, doesn't it?

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"grunching"

he should autobet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you don't mean me.

[/ QUOTE ]

he doesn't.

but I did:

[ QUOTE ]
so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn?



[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"grunching"

he should autobet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you don't mean me.

[/ QUOTE ]

he doesn't.

but I did:

[ QUOTE ]
so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn?



[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

See my above post. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

All right, I tried, I really did. I started writing down the numbers and then I started to get this sudden urge to drink. I even got out King Yaos book but I couldn't go through with it.

I will say this. If I was in his position, and my opponent bet out the turn, and I had AK or a similar hand, I would raise.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]

I will say this. If I was in his position, and my opponent bet out the turn, and I had AK or a similar hand, I would raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

and you would probably be right to do so, but I don't think most micro players (even 2+2ers) would think to make that play.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

checking through this flop with AK is so crappy that you should never be in a spot to raise a turn bet with it, anyway

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
he should autobet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
checking through this flop with AK is so crappy that you should never be in a spot to raise a turn bet with it, anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

so just to clarify, you want us to bet the flop? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

mebbe bet the river. He'd probably call with A-high tho.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
KK: 3 combos, AA: 9 combos, AK: 12 combos, AQs: 3 combos

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that really all he's 3-betting preflop? Am I missing something?

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
mebbe bet the river. He'd probably call with A-high tho.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, he's calling with A high. we raised UTG, and so the T is very unlikely to have helped us.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he should autobet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
checking through this flop with AK is so crappy that you should never be in a spot to raise a turn bet with it, anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

so just to clarify, you want us to bet the flop? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
i'm saying lau should have bet the flop with AK. and since you and adsman are talking about lau raising the turn with AK, i'm saying you should never be in that spot (as lau) because you would bet AK on this flop.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he should autobet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
checking through this flop with AK is so crappy that you should never be in a spot to raise a turn bet with it, anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

so just to clarify, you want us to bet the flop? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
i'm saying lau should have bet the flop with AK. and since you and adsman are talking about lau raising the turn with AK, i'm saying you should never be in that spot (as lau) because you would bet AK on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I knew that. Way to go jaxUp. Make a smart ass reply, and don't articulate it well enough to make it understandable. Nice.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KK: 3 combos, AA: 9 combos, AK: 12 combos, AQs: 3 combos

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that really all he's 3-betting preflop? Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was wondering about that too... QQ-99 seem possibilities here. KQs and AJs maybe as well.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KK: 3 combos, AA: 9 combos, AK: 12 combos, AQs: 3 combos

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that really all he's 3-betting preflop? Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was wondering about that too... QQ-99 seem possibilities here. KQs and AJs maybe as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only considered these because I think that's all he checks the flop with. No way he risks a free card with <QQ. he *might* check AJs, but I don't think he would do that either on a 2 flush flop.

He certainly 3-bets more hands preflop, but given the flop check, I think that smaller range is accurate.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

well you're ahead of 0 3-betting hands that Lau could have, and are tied with KQ - i.e. he's not folding anything he has for a bet anywhere

I have NO idea what Lau has here - A9s? KQ?

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

[ QUOTE ]
well you're ahead of 0 3-betting hands that Lau could have, and are tied with KQ - i.e. he's not folding anything he has for a bet anywhere

I have NO idea what Lau has here - A9s? KQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I think the consensus is that lau played his hand wrong no matter what he has. We may not be ahead of any hands, but with our fold equity a turn c/r is profitable. How about you try and find the EV of simply betting the turn. You can model it after my post above.

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

I'm just gonna delete this because there's no defense for not betting this hand anywhere...

Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
 

what did you have lau?