niner, niner
 

odd hand from tonight -

MP (42/8 stats after ~40 hands) had been confusing me. i had been stealing blinds often, and he had called me on rag flops and bet turns when i checked. unfortunately i had like Q and J high, so i folded. one time i raised KK in the CO, he coldcalled A5o. flop was 552, turn 7, river T and he waited until the river to raise my bet.

SB was really really bad (60/0 after ~18 hands). one hand i played with him, he limped K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and called my pfr (i had QJ). he check called on a A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flop. i checked through a 6 turn, and we checked a 7 river.


Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, Hero says, "omg KK" and calls.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls and prays ...

Re: niner, niner
 

The reads you mentioned are not nearly convincing enough to keep me from 3-betting the turn here.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reads you mentioned are not nearly convincing enough to keep me from 3-betting the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, is your skirt too tight tonight?

Re: niner, niner
 

I dunno, guys. I might be biased because I've seen this play a fair amount recently, but I think this is pretty decent. I guess it might also be AK, but I don't know if it's AK often enough to 3bet here. Actually, hell, this could very easily be AQ (AJs?), but how often does an 8% PFR 3bet AQ preflop?

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, guys. I might be biased because I've seen this play a fair amount recently, but I think this is pretty decent. I guess it might also be AK, but I don't know if it's AK often enough to 3bet here. Actually, hell, this could very easily be AQ (AJs?), but how often does an 8% PFR 3bet AQ preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with SB padding, he has AK/AQ often enough to make a 3-bet worthwhile.

Re: niner, niner
 

That's a bad spot to be in on the river. The flop/turn play looks a lot like KK (or maybe AA), though it's not inconceivable that he does this with AK or possibly a worse Ace.

Bah. A raise behind us seems inevitable and I don't want to call it, but I don't think I can bring myself to fold to SBs river donk. I think I call planning for it to be the last money I put into the pot. Hopefully MP overcalls or it's 2 back to me and I don't have to deal with it.

Re: niner, niner
 

I don't have a problem with it. Checking a flopped top set is a pretty donk-standard slowplay.

A hand like AQ is possible, I guess, but would this player check that on the flop versus just two opponents? (I don't know. I'm really asking.)

Re: niner, niner
 

I think you need to 3 bet the turn to tap the SB for another bet.

The river card sucks.

Re: niner, niner
 

yeah I dunno - this could be AJ/AQ here too

but if he's only at raising 8% of the time, his 3-bet range will be pretty tight (AA-TT, AKs, AK)

I probably slow down as well on the turn

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
but if he's only at raising 8% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you guys really read this much into stats after 40 hands?

Re: niner, niner
 

This flop check really does smell. It reeks of KK, but AA and AK are also possibilites. Then again, TT, AQ, and AJ are also possible. After the turn, I'm tempted to limit it to AA, KK, and AK. The question is, will it be AK (or AQ, AJ) often enough to compensate for the times that KK and AA cap?

It's too late, and I'm too tired to run the numbers. Somebody run the numbers. I'll check back in the morning.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if he's only at raising 8% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you guys really read this much into stats after 40 hands?

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whoops haha no.... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

didn't even see the number of hands

Re: niner, niner
 

I've done this before too, I'm not sure if your read is strong enough here though. It is a really weird sort of a hand to play, and I really think this is much more of a judgement call and not something that can be analyzed.

I do think the ace falling on the turn opens up the possibilities of what he might have a bit more making me lean toward him three betting.

(If he's prone to slow playing he might have had AK, might have had AQ based on your statement that you had been stealing a lot of blinds. Players like that tend to get pissed easily at that, and will start playing back at you with hands they normally wouldn't.)

But really, if you felt the call was the right play, I wouldn't sweat it here. We all have these bursts of revelation from time to time.

Re: niner, niner
 

*grunch*

You hit your set on the flop and check it down?

Are you trying to hone that R-AG playing style?

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]

*grunch*

You hit your set on the flop and check it down?

Are you trying to hone that R-AG playing style?

[/ QUOTE ]
only a true newb fish would think i wanted the flop to check through. congrats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

and i agree about this hand being hard to analyze. i've simply seen this play so often at absolute that i weighted AA/KK more than AQ/AK here

turns out he had ATo and the SB had Q8o? absolute is nuts sometimes

Re: niner, niner
 

I just can't stop betting that turn, and the main read for me is the fact that he checked through on the flop. Apparently I'm the only one who finds this extremely rare.

Re: niner, niner
 

apparently at absolute, checking through the flop with a monster is standard

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

*grunch*

You hit your set on the flop and check it down?

Are you trying to hone that R-AG playing style?

[/ QUOTE ]
only a true newb fish would think i wanted the flop to check through. congrats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

and i agree about this hand being hard to analyze. i've simply seen this play so often at absolute that i weighted AA/KK more than AQ/AK here

turns out he had ATo and the SB had Q8o? absolute is nuts sometimes

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 3bet last night by AJo on Abso. (naturally I was raising AT. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]) Seems really rockish for a while then all of a sudden...

I don't mind the way you played the hand at all, because I think you're right. Generally the only time I see anyone slow down like that after 3betting preflop, they have a monster and they're trying to suck someone in. Hope you made a note on this guy.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
absolute is nuts every minute

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: niner, niner
 

The more I think about this, I dislike the monsters under the bed on the turn more and more and think it may have cost us several BB. Have we considered the fact that SB appears to be hanging around? I'm probably more than 50% sure we are ahead on the turn, and if not, I'm definitely more than 30% sure.
More importantly, there are ten bets in the pot on the flop. That's a big pot that I don't think many donks at all would check through.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't stop betting that turn, and the main read for me is the fact that he checked through on the flop. Apparently I'm the only one who finds this extremely rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not at all uncommon. If it was HU, I think Miles's line is correct. By taking this line, we at most miss out on one BB when he has AQ and calls us down. If we 3bet, we run the risk of losing two BB when he caps us and we call down. Going any more bets than that is burning money. The problem here is SB. With him padding the pot, 3betting that turn is looking more correct. I'm not convinced yet, though.

Re: niner, niner
 

Even though his pfr is 8%, his range could easily include AK--there are 9 of them vs 1 AA and 1 KK. I think this table has turned you w/t, Miles. The J on the river could suck if he had JJ.

Re: niner, niner
 

I don't know about you, but I count 3 AA, 3 KK, 9 AK, and 12 (max) AQ. I also think AK should be discounted by checking that flop. Very few players check AK here. Not all that many players 3bet AQ, either. If I was giving weights to the relative probabilities of each hand, I'd go with something like 10 KK, 1 AA, 2 AK, and 3 AQ based on how much (and how little) we know about the player.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about you, but I count 3 AA, 3 KK, 9 AK, and 12 (max) AQ. I also think AK should be discounted by checking that flop. Very few players check AK here. Not all that many players 3bet AQ, either. If I was giving weights to the relative probabilities of each hand, I'd go with something like 10 KK, 1 AA, 2 AK, and 3 AQ based on how much (and how little) we know about the player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah right. I'm stoned again--3 AA, 3 KK. That is a good point about checking the flop as last to act with AK. That does lower AK a bit. AQ could be played that way, but we go back to the unlikely 3-betting pre-flop with it. Herm.

Re: niner, niner
 

Sets over sets are rare, but when they happen you can make/lose a lot of bets on them. That's when reads and taking into consideration the table conditions and even the site conditions can be very helpful. It's looking at a certain situation with certain information available and coming to a rational conclusion without letting your ego get in the way. I play at Absolute as well and I'm fully with Miles on this play. I think that he played it very well.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
More importantly, there are ten bets in the pot on the flop. That's a big pot that I don't think many donks at all would check through.

[/ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this means anything.

and buzz - he wouldn't possibly pull a turn raise with JJ, so that river didn't change his hand. and yeah, AK bets the flop, i didnt suspect him to 3-bet me preflop with AQ, so i really expected seeing KK a majority of the time here.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]

and buzz - he wouldn't possibly pull a turn raise with JJ, so that river didn't change his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

possible JJ or straight for SB. His 0 pfr and cold-calling 2.5 pre-flop, coldcalling on the turn and leading the river. He could easily have a weak ace tho too.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
only a true newb fish would think i wanted the flop to check through. congrats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

Do a win a t-shirt or something? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: niner, niner
 

Grunch.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, Hero says, "omg <font color="red">there's a monster under my bed</font>" and calls.


[/ QUOTE ]
FYP. I would 3-bet that turn. You are ahead of lots of hands here that play the same as KK -- slowplayed AK, AQ, maybe AJs. If he caps, then WA/WB time.

[edited to town my post down a bit.]

Re: niner, niner
 

If he caps, it's not WA/WB time. Sure, hero is likely either way ahead or way behind, but that's not just what that acronym means. It means that hero is just about as likely to be WA as he is to be WB. If villain caps, it's more like wa/WB, in which case hero just calls down, rather than doing something like betting the river to prevent villain from checking behind.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.


[/ QUOTE ]

What? No way. The SB check called with no pair no draw no overs. BET BET BET.

Edit to add that I initially overlooked positional implications in my frenzy. However, I think SB is donktastic enough to call the two cold as well after PFR raises you. That K7 hand tells more than any numbers can.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he caps, it's not WA/WB time. Sure, hero is likely either way ahead or way behind, but that's not just what that acronym means. It means that hero is just about as likely to be WA as he is to be WB. If villain caps, it's more like wa/WB, in which case hero just calls down, rather than doing something like betting the river to prevent villain from checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right. I meant to say that I would call down if capped. And not like it very much.