Totals analysis MNF
 

I placed 2 wagers a few mins ago:

Over 40.5 $100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
Under 41 $107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits. 41, I believe, is a fairly common number. However, I don't know how often it hits when the wagerable total is in the vicinity of 41. Are the chances at or higher than my risk here of 2.62%? I gathered from Pinny's buy/sell line prices that it's significantly higher than this.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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I placed 2 wagers a few mins ago:

Over 40.5 $100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
Under 41 $107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits. 41, I believe, is a fairly common number. However, I don't know how often it hits when the wagerable total is in the vicinity of 41. Are the chances at or higher than my risk here of 2.62%? I gathered from Pinny's buy/sell line prices that it's significantly higher than this.

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Am I wrong, but isn't your bet on the Under 41 a push if it comes out 41?

edit.. reread and realized i'm an idiot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] gl on the bet

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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I placed 2 wagers a few mins ago:

Over 40.5 $100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
Under 41 $107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits. 41, I believe, is a fairly common number. However, I don't know how often it hits when the wagerable total is in the vicinity of 41. Are the chances at or higher than my risk here of 2.62%? I gathered from Pinny's buy/sell line prices that it's significantly higher than this.

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Am I wrong, but isn't your bet on the Under 41 a push if it comes out 41?

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It's a soft middle. I win $104.25, not $201.52.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

just increased it to

200 to win 208.25 Over 40.5
213.85 to win 194.41 Under 41

Risking 5.59 to win 208.25 (2.68%)

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

Hope 41 comes up for you.. that's a nice payday for a $5 wager. I'd do the same if I had the cash and accounts on the sportsbooks.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Hope 41 comes up for you.. that's a nice payday for a $5 wager. I'd do the same if I had the cash and accounts on the sportsbooks.

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Thanks. I don't ordinarily do this because it ties up my NFL wagering money. The difference is the payout comes back before I even start betting wk 11.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Hope 41 comes up for you.. that's a nice payday for a $5 wager. I'd do the same if I had the cash and accounts on the sportsbooks.

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Thanks. I don't ordinarily do this because it ties up my NFL wagering money. The difference is the payout comes back before I even start betting wk 11.

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24-17 here we come

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Hope 41 comes up for you.. that's a nice payday for a $5 wager. I'd do the same if I had the cash and accounts on the sportsbooks.

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Thanks. I don't ordinarily do this because it ties up my NFL wagering money. The difference is the payout comes back before I even start betting wk 11.

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24-17 here we come

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i smell 41

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

21-20 !!!

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

Holy farking crap. I am having an awful night, but have been telling myself "at least I'll hit the under" (41).

Not.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

Got my fingers crossed for you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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21-20 !!!

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hold'em dallas... i got the dallas moneyline too

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

you have a chance here

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

When that interception happened I thought of this thread. Good thing McNabb is terrible now

edit

you are lucky Cortez is the Eagle's kicker. He will miss it

edit

oh its Aikers (sp?)

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Holy farking crap. I am having an awful month

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[censored] McNabb.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

I just slept through the last half-hour. Wow. This Akers FG attempt kills the $200 win and doesn't help me cover -3 either.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

Wow great bet. Congrats man

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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I just slept through the last half-hour. Wow. This Akers FG attempt kills the $200 win and doesn't help me cover -3 either.

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lucky farker

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Wow great bet. Congrats man

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Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Got my fingers crossed for you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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and there we go! Wow.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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I just slept through the last half-hour. Wow. This Akers FG attempt kills the $200 win and doesn't help me cover -3 either.

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Congratulations. This was a good middle (41 occurs about 4% of the time).

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Wow great bet. Congrats man

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Thanks y'all. If it makes you feel better, I lost $85 on Philly -3.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits.

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vnh, sir...

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Wow great bet. Congrats man

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Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

funny... i had eagles -3

But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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funny... i had eagles -3

But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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Thanks. The odds were slim that it would hit, I just got lucky.

\"Soft Middle\"
 

Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable.

Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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Thanks...I estimated the ~2.6% cost was lower than the odds of 41 hitting so I took it.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable.

Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other.

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So "common totals" also apply to point spreads like 3 and 7 (and 10) right? I can soft middle a game with a spread of 3 and 2.5 for example? And where can I find common totals that should be middled?

If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through.

Anyways, to summarize what I think you said, look for middle or soft middle opportunities if it lands on common numbers.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through.

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You might not be sure which side is the better side even though one must be. The EV difference might be almost zero anyway.

He made the bet simply because the bet was +EV; it's like calling the river with a weak hand in a sufficiently big pot. Usually you lose, but sometimes, woohoo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And there are enough woohoos to make up for the "of course I was beat"s.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through.

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You might not be sure which side is the better side even though one must be. The EV difference might be almost zero anyway.

He made the bet simply because the bet was +EV; it's like calling the river with a weak hand in a sufficiently big pot. Usually you lose, but sometimes, woohoo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And there are enough woohoos to make up for the "of course I was beat"s.

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Yeah for the record this was no genius bet. I had no special insight that the game would hit 41. I simply knew I had a +EV wager on my hands and luckily it hit.

Edit: On the other hand, my system did not generate an over or under play on the game...this is not special insight that the total would hit 41, of course, but I might've been less likely to try the middle had I liked one side strongly over the other.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

played another soft middle tonight:

Cleveland -6.5 110/100 (Bowmans)
Washington +7 103.45/106.55 (Matchbook)

Risking 3.45 to win 100. I think 7 has a better than ~3.4% chance of hitting.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

Well, it didn't hit, but your analysis was correct. I remember reading that 7 is the most common point differential in the NBA (something like 6.5% of games)

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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Well, it didn't hit, but your analysis was correct. I remember reading that 7 is the most common point differential in the NBA (something like 6.5% of games)

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I also played a 3.45 to win 100.00 on the Celts-Pistons game hitting 9. The Pistons actually blew right past that number during their 2nd half romp.