Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

2/4 6-max

Very aggressive solid player open-raises to $15 on the button. He could have any sort of playable hand here (76s etc) and will play well postflop. I have KK in the SB. I reraise to $45. I don't think I've reraised from the blinds previously in this session, although I think I've reraised preflop with position a couple times. BB folds. Button reraises to $90. This guy doesn't use the "Call" button too much. He's sort of a "raise or fold" type of guy. I call. Flop is Txx. I check, he bets $100, I go all-in for $321.

If he has QQ, JJ, or AK then I win about $200 on this hand. If he has AA or TT, I lose $400.

Different table...

Donk minraises to $8. I just call with KK because me and the donk have this thing going where he will minraise preflop, I'll call with something, and postflop he will simply grant me access to his bank account and make direct transfers to me... so why scare him off preflop when he is willing to check-call the flop with nine-high and no draw on a flop of overcards? SB with $200 reraises to $30 or so. Donk reraises to $65. Donk typically isn't very aggressive so this worries me. However, just a few hands ago donk slowplayed AA preflop (just calling a minraise) and doubled up a shortstack. I'm not quite sure how the rest of that hand went down. So donk might be tilting a bit, or maybe just doesn't want to slowplay and get stacked again. I don't know.

If I just call the $65 I give two people the chance to outflop me, if I reraise it's hard to get action unless I'm behind, so I either win $100 or lose $400.

Maybe I should have called this thread "reverse implied odds" or something. Because the point I'm illustrating is that it's not just a matter of whether you have the best hand, you have to consider how much you win when it is good compared to how much you lose when it's not good.

It just feels like there must be some major leaks in my game if I am, (to misquote David Sklansky) turning my KK into 72o.

It feels sick to shove your stack in the pot when you're drawing very thin each time you're called... normally this is avoided by not playing marginal hands (AJ etc) but KK isn't a hand I intend to give up easily, nor should it be played for set value. In the past I once posted a hand very similar to the first one here against a similar opponent... I just called on the flop, turn got checked through, and his AK sucked out on the river. So failing to protect my hand on the flop gives my opponent two chances to suckout in a monster pot. And if I call the flop, then on the turn he may still bet QQ... but not AK, maybe not JJ, maybe not QQ... so I'll be getting 5:2 to call a push and I may sometimes have the best hand... it's just sick.

I think the moral of this thread is that I'm going to start putting a lot more pressure on TAGs with position, because these situations suck. =/

PS. This also applies to situations like I raise preflop with a big pair or AK or something, I flop my TPTK/overpair and there are some draws on the board, and I get one caller. When the turn bricks, I either risk giving a free card to a draw, or I make a bet that will only get called by hands that crush me. Is it too late for me to convert to limit hold'em?

End rant.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

I think you're VASTLY over-rating your opponents. You aren't turning your KK into 72o because in all of these examples you will be able to get all your money in against QQ and WAY worse hands much of the time. You are just wrong if you think people will obviously fold QQ in these situations. I personally will essentially never fold QQ preflop at 2/4 6max. Guys are just too crazy preflop with way worse.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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I think you're VASTLY over-rating your opponents.

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agreed - perhaps you are thinking just a little too much here.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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Is it too late for me to convert to limit hold'em?


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Yes, unfortunately, once you convert to the dark side there is no turning back.

What I do after I get KK hammered a couple of times is look at my PT stats and see that I am winning a large percentage of the time and I remind myself that variance takes many forms. Also, check for monsters behind your monitor before you play and then you will not see them during your sessions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (BTW - Nice rant.)

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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I think you're VASTLY over-rating your opponents.

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Just because I chose to illustrate my point with an example against a solid TAG does not mean that the underlying principle is not present against all players. At some point there exists a hand which your opponent will not make mistakes against you. How would you handle QQ or JJ given the action in those hands?

I raise with AK to $14, the player behind me reraises to $40 or something. I call. Flop is Kxx rainbow. I check/call the flop, check/call the turn, check/fold to a push on the river. Yuck. Maybe I played it okay but I feel like my hands are tied. If I show much aggression QQ/JJ/etc are folding. If I don't show aggression then I let my opponent decide exactly how big the pot will be. So neither way do I get my opponents to make any significant mistakes.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]

PS. This also applies to situations like I raise preflop with a big pair or AK or something, I flop my TPTK/overpair and there are some draws on the board, and I get one caller. When the turn bricks, I either risk giving a free card to a draw, or I make a bet that will only get called by hands that crush me.

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That damn spot routinely comes around, too.
It mostly has to come down to reads, or likely range for given opponent. So I might give a free card to a noticeably tight player or nut-peddler, but I will certainly risk betting into the occasional set when my opponent is either a station, a gazilion% VPIP, or both (yum).

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

If your flop call is correct for his hand range on the flop and your turn call is correct for his hand range on the turn and your river fold is correct for your hand range on the turn then I don't see what your problem is? You played it fine, you got maximal EV against his preflop hand range, you will win money in the long run taking that line, yada yada. Save making him make mistakes for when YOU have position and then you can deceive him into thinking you are weaker than you are and you can get him to put in money with a worse hand or fold a better hand. When you are out of position just focus on pot control and winning your fair share. It is too hard to outplay good opponents out of position.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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It is too hard to outplay good opponents out of position.

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I'm taping that to my monitor tonight.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

UTG limps. Two folds. I raise to $18 on the button with AKo. One blind and UTG call. Flop 655 with two diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me. I have not raised preflop much recently and I can't remember raising a limper preflop at this table (I've not been around for terribly long). I don't know if they'll give me enough respect to lay down a pocket pair here, but I think my chances are good enough for a bet to be +EV. So I bet $40. They both call...! The turn is an offsuit king. Checked to me again. They each have 80-90% of a pot-sized bet left in their stacks. No specific reads but they aren't donks.

Another table...

Two limpers, I raise to $25 in the BB with AA. Two players call. Flop is low cards with a flush draw and perhaps some sort of straight draws. I bet $50, one player folds, the next player calls. Turn is a brick. He has just over $100 remaining. My only read on this guy is that recently UTG had raised to $15, I had called, and he called from the BB with QJo, flopped an OESD and won a big pot when he hit on the turn. (And now that I think about it, he must have been involved with another large pot recently to account for his diminished stack size here, but I don't have any idea what happened.)

Should both of these be routine pushes? I just feel like I'm losing money no matter what I do...

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG limps. Two folds. I raise to $18 on the button with AKo. One blind and UTG call. Flop 655 with two diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me. I have not raised preflop much recently and I can't remember raising a limper preflop at this table (I've not been around for terribly long). I don't know if they'll give me enough respect to lay down a pocket pair here, but I think my chances are good enough for a bet to be +EV. So I bet $40. They both call...! The turn is an offsuit king. Checked to me again. They each have 80-90% of a pot-sized bet left in their stacks. No specific reads but they aren't donks.

Another table...

Two limpers, I raise to $25 in the BB with AA. Two players call. Flop is low cards with a flush draw and perhaps some sort of straight draws. I bet $50, one player folds, the next player calls. Turn is a brick. He has just over $100 remaining. My only read on this guy is that recently UTG had raised to $15, I had called, and he called from the BB with QJo, flopped an OESD and won a big pot when he hit on the turn. (And now that I think about it, he must have been involved with another large pot recently to account for his diminished stack size here, but I don't have any idea what happened.)

Should both of these be routine pushes? I just feel like I'm losing money no matter what I do...

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Hand 2 is a very easy push.

Hand 1 really depends on the hand range you assign UTG and the BB based on your past history with them. I guess against a standard opponent I can attempt to do this:

UTG,BB--75, 65, A5s, 66, 55, 77-QQ, flush draw

It's strange that they cold call here with the draw out there. So, I'd define one of their ranges to exactly 66,55,65 (if you're behind).

I'd probably push.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

I think you are pointing out that you often find yourself with a strong starting hand, but after your opponents act it is unclear where you stand and now the pot is substantial and you still have plenty of money behind. Very unpleasant.

Isn't this inevitable? That is, some situations will evolve to an EV~0, with large variance. Do you think this should be avoidable or am I misunderstanding?

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Just push them both, IMO. Too short to get away when they could very easily have draws. Even if you check, you could be inducing bluffs and then you'll be getting too good odds to fold. Just bet to charge their draws. You have outs in both hands even if you're behind, FWIW.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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I raise with AK to $14, the player behind me reraises to $40 or something. I call. Flop is Kxx rainbow. I check/call the flop, check/call the turn, check/fold to a push on the river. Yuck.

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Of course even if this is the max EV line, as soon as you make it predictable a good opponent will shred you.

If villain is genuinely tight and solid, how often do you consider mucking the AK preflop? If the player's range is somewhat wider, how often do you checkraise this flop all-in?

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are pointing out that you often find yourself with a strong starting hand, but after your opponents act it is unclear where you stand and now the pot is substantial and you still have plenty of money behind. Very unpleasant.

Isn't this inevitable? That is, some situations will evolve to an EV~0, with large variance. Do you think this should be avoidable or am I misunderstanding?

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My concern is that ideally when betting I would like for better hands to call me, or for worse hands to fold. I would like to avoid bets which achieve neither of these goals. However, I must also balance this with the need to protect my hand with cards to come. Getting my money in with the worst hand is -EV, and giving free cards is -EV, so I'm trying to figure out if there's something I am doing wrong.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

You wrote this post backwards (first sentence). But I think you are just putting too much emphasis on the wrong things. For instance, there are several situations where pot control will outweigh any of the things you're talking about here. This may be especially true out of position on early streets with deep stacks. And sometimes just taking your due is fine. For instance, let's say I raise preflop with JJ and have one caller behind me. Flop comes Axx. I'm plenty happy to make a bet which will only get called when I'm beat and then to check/fold if called. That way, I get my due if he didn't outflop me and I don't lose too much when he did. That's just the way it works out of position. When you're in position, you'll put HIM in that bad situation.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Pot control doesn't apply in any of these scenarios because there is only one bet left in the shallowest stack(s). With lots of money left I have no problem checking to control pot size, or making bets with marginal hands to find out if I'm beat.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

I was just giving general examples. In your cases, I just throw it in both times. People will still make mistakes and call with worse hands. And if they won't, then fine, you're just too shallow to get away if you're also going to not get blown off your hand every time. You simply put it in and win the pot when you are ahead and lose your stack when you are behind and don't suck out. That's just how it works when you are not deep.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....

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Sometimes this is ok. Do you see why?

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....

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Sometimes this is ok. Do you see why?

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You find out where you're at when called. If folded you know your opponent wouldn't pay off anyway and you avoid giving him a chance to catch up...
"even when your opponent isn't getting good enough pot odds to call and figures to fold, you should bet. You would prefer a call when that opponent is making a mistake by calling, but making him fold is stilll better than giving him a free shot to outdraw you"-TOP

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Finding out where I'm at when I'm all-in has no value.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Some results...

Button raised to 15, I raise to 45 with KK, he reraise, I check-raise all-in on the flop, he folds and claims JJ.

Donk raises to 8, I called with KK, semi-short SB reraised, donk reraised, I pushed, SB thinks a while and calls with QQ (for the record, I wanted to play for his stack with KK... don't remember why anymore, but I felt very good against him. It was the donk I was concerned with). Donk calls with AA. Board QJTxx.

UTG limps, I raise AKo on button, SB calls, UTG calls, flop 655 two diamonds, both call me, turn king I push and they both fold.

I raise a couple limpers with AA in BB, two calls, I bet a low flop, one call, I bet the rest of his stack on the turn and he calls with a set of fours.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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Finding out where I'm at when I'm all-in has no value.

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touche. hand one I don't know why you wouldn't just check/call. I don't think it's likely that the turn will develop into a best hand for villain. Villain is a similar type, raise or fold tho obviously not as solid:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP ($27.74)
CO ($27.20)
Button ($13.49)
Hero ($25)
BB ($50.30)
UTG ($32.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
[color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]CO raises to $0.65</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero (poster) raises to $1.9</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, CO calls $1.35.

Flop: ($4.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $4</font>, [color=#CC3333]CO raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($20.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
Hero checks, [color=#CC3333]CO bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15 (All-In).

River: ($50.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $50.25

Villain shows Q10o

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

For every hand like your KK where your push made him fold JJ, I can show you a hand where I pushed with QJ on a KT92 board and K4 called me.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Without surrounding details you cannot make any sort of comparisons. If I think my opponent will call with worse hands then it doesn't fall under the scope of this thread and I don't post it.

For example, had the donk not held AA in that particular hand, I would have gladly gotten all-in against the third player and not posted it here, because I felt that KK was ahead of the range he'd call all-in with.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Without surrounding details you cannot make any sort of comparisons. If I think my opponent will call with worse hands then it doesn't fall under the scope of this thread and I don't post it.

For example, had the donk not held AA in that particular hand, I would have gladly gotten all-in against the third player and not posted it here, because I felt that KK was ahead of the range he'd call all-in with.

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Im referring to your 1st KK vs JJ hand where you pushed the turn and he cliamed to have folded JJ. Youre questioning whether pushing is correct because he will fold worse hands and call with better hands. Im saying that people call with worse hands all the time so your all in is correct.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Since you don't know who my opponent was, how can you claim that he will call with worse hands?

As I said earlier in the thread, if you disagree with my read of what range of hands will call me in any given hand, then what would you do if you had QQ or JJ instead of KK? I am asking a theory question and nitpicking the examples accomplishes nothing.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

Why you making things so difficult? I know the game is full of excellent complexities but this post seems to be creating ones that shouldn't be.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

If these situations can be avoided then I'd love to get some advice about it. That's why I posted the thread...

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he has QQ, JJ, or AK then I win about $200 on this hand. If he has AA or TT, I lose $400.



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Most players will call with QQ/JJ here oh and dont forget A10 and 99...

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If I just call the $65 I give two people the chance to outflop me, if I reraise it's hard to get action unless I'm behind, so I either win $100 or lose $400.


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This is more like it. I dont know what to do but the spot is definitely not easy.

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When the turn bricks, I either risk giving a free card to a draw, or I make a bet that will only get called by hands that crush me.

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Giving a freecard is not that bad if you bet enough on the flop and your opponents are willing to bluff if they dont fill up.
My experience tell me that its not the problem though if I have AK on Kxx flop I bet 3 times and observe KQ, KJ, K10 , QQ, JJ calling me down.

I see the point of this post. I have the same problem with mediocre hands (like KJ on Kxx 2tone board) this is where pot control came in handy. Yours is about big hands though I think the solution is to bluff more if you really dont get calls from medium hands in these situations...

Best wishes

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

[ QUOTE ]
For every hand like your KK where your push made him fold JJ, I can show you a hand where I pushed with QJ on a KT92 board and K4 called me.

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Yeah Iceman. Other examples from last week of my play are : push with AA on Kxx , called by KQ, push with A10 on A10x called by AQ, push with 33 (10xpot overbet) on 1073 no flush called by 89off ! push with QJ on QJx (3xpot overbet) called by AQ etc etc. I think you just need aggressive image [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

I like your play in the first hand. But I disagree with this: If he has QQ, JJ, or AK then I win about $200 on this hand. If he has AA or TT, I lose $400:

worse hands will call in this spot.

In the 2nd hand I'm pushing preflop. If they fold to my push, fine--I'm happy to win it. I am time and again pleasantly shocked by what hands will decide to call a preflop all in--especially when the action has gone raise, reraise, push.

Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
 

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Yours is about big hands though I think the solution is to bluff more if you really dont get calls from medium hands in these situations...

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The problem though is that I think each time there's a pretty significant chance that I'm up against a big hand which will not fold.

For example, when I raise to $25 from the bb and bet the flop against two players, everyone knows I'm representing an overpair. Now and then someone will chase a draw, or they'll decide to put me on AK (hey, it's a hand they can beat!) but usually hands that I beat fold. Against a deeper stack I'd give up if I have to put much more money in the pot, but with his shortstack I felt pretty much stuck. Pushing there with a bluff (AK) would not be profitable IMO, because I'll get called drawing dead so often.