So I just lost 30K......
 

Ok, here is the deal. I have been running like absolute crap lately in 2000NL on party. I won't go into details but lets just say i'm losing sets over sets and being 2 outed constantly after the money goes in. I've been playing shorthanded obviously, not full ring for the most part. This caused me to lose 15 buyins. I tried to move down to 1000NL, but lost some sick flush over flushes there as well, now I have 8K in my roll, down from about 40K a week ago. I built up this roll pretty much in the last 3 months in 2000NL. I had back to back months where I won 30K in about 10,000 hands. Then over the last 10,000 hands(this month) I am getting smoked.

I'm an idiot for not moving down to 1000 when i hit 20K BR, but I felt I was dominating 2K enough to comeback. Well, that burned me.

Now I have to rebuild from probably NL400!!!!

This pretty much just sucks. I mean I have like 10K in the bank and a bunch in the stock market, but I can't really touch those(still have to pay about 15K in taxes this year).

So, is there anyone else who this has happened to, and how long before I'm able to get back into the 10/20 game?

Oh yeah, it seems like the games are worse during the holiday season. Is this just me or what?

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

I wouldn't exactly call November 14th "holiday season."

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

I don't know guys but i think either november is an unlucky month or its party. No im not saying its rigged, maybe they got alot more loose players with their commercials and stuff. Because this month in Party i, too took a beating. I am not playing high stakes like you are, but i went from a $1400 roll playing 3/6 and beating it by 2bb/hr in 10k hands, to a $400 roll. Maybe someone can look at their PT database from last year and see if they experienced something similar.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

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I wouldn't exactly call November 14th "holiday season."

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I was talking about the end of the year. i.e. people are spending more on xmas and less on poker...

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

You may have something there. I lost last nov. as well. I have only lost 4 out of 30 months, and 2 have been november.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Take a week off, then start rebuilding from NL 200. You don't want to put yourself into a position where you could tilt the rest off. If the downswing continues, NL 200 should insulate you from getting completely slaughtered long enough to survive it and eventually move back up. It's far better to be safe and have part of your bankroll than to play recklessly and lose the whole thing.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

welcome to variance, population you. move down to 200 NL or 400 NL until you build up your roll and so that you can build up confidence to get back into the bigger games otherwise you'll have no roll left to play with. Good Luck getting back to where you were, it will be an uphill climb

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

the case with the 3/6 is nothing unusal 150 bb swings are very common, not just in november. And losing a grand is only 150 so thats no need to post yet another party is rigged

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Play within your bankroll. Be willing to move down.

Just cause you had some temporary success doesn't mean you should be playing that game.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Yeah, I know I can beat this game. I did it for 3 months prior to this, and I did not feel i was running exceptionally well.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know guys but i think either november is an unlucky month or its party. No im not saying its rigged, maybe they got alot more loose players with their commercials and stuff. Because this month in Party i, too took a beating. I am not playing high stakes like you are, but i went from a $1400 roll playing 3/6 and beating it by 2bb/hr in 10k hands, to a $400 roll. Maybe someone can look at their PT database from last year and see if they experienced something similar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your bankroll is insufficient for $3/$6. I am assuming you are talking about limit full handed. If you are talkking 3/6 shorthanded, your bankroll is really insufficient. If you are talking about no limit, your bankroll is ridiculously insufficient.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

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Yeah, I know I can beat this game. I did it for 3 months prior to this, and I did not feel i was running exceptionally well.

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If you were beating it for 3 months why is your roll only 40K? What happened to the money you were making? If you are spending the money that you are making, 20 buyins is not enough of a bankroll for such a high variance game. Anyway, dropping down sucks, but it is usually a good learning experience.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Why aren't you paying taxes quarterly as required? Also, it makes April 15 much much easier to deal with. Better luck and just keep your head down and fight the good fight. I'm speaking as someone coming off a 10k slide myself.

Jeff

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

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Yeah, I know I can beat this game. I did it for 3 months prior

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Beating a game for 3 months still could mean that you were getting lucky.

If you can't handle the swings, then don't play that high.

Always consider the possibility that you will drop a few buy-in's when you start to play...if you are unprepared for that possibility then you are possibly underbankrolled for that level.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
i went from a $1400 roll playing 3/6 and beating it by 2bb/hr in 10k hands, to a $400 roll. Maybe someone can look at their PT database from last year and see if they experienced something similar.


[/ QUOTE ]


2bb/hr in 10k hands is pretty meaningless because 10k hands is a pretty small sample.

You've dropped 166BB's playing 3/6 which either means that your first 10k hands was a lucky streak (very very possible) or that you have experienced a fairly typical downswing (also very possible).


I don't have a PT database from last year available...but I can tell you that I dropped 230BB's at the beginning of this month in very little time (at 5/10).

I was a bit concerned naturally....about the downswing and the hit to my bankroll...and also about the strength of my game (but I'm always concerned about the strength of my game).

I have since bounced back and about 12k hands into the month I am +140BB's overall. So that's a +370BB upswing in about 7k hands.
It doesn't really mean that I'm all that great a player.
It does mean that I've been running pretty damn hot though.

Go me!!



Warning: players who think in terms of "I just KNOW that I'm playing correctly...almost PERFECT poker...but I'm just getting really unlucky cards" are almost certainly NOT playing anything close to 'perfect' poker.
you might play ABC-ish type poker where you didn't make any ridiculous blunders like folding the nuts on the river. But you certainly didn't play anything close to perfect.

Barry Greenstein stated that he makes several mistakes in every session.
I believe Phil Ivey and Howard Lederer subscribe to this philosophy too.

Just because you can't find your small-ish mistakes and you don't think you made any doesn't mean they weren't there.
they were. It's almost guaranteed.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm speaking as someone coming off a 10k slide myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you post about playing live 150/300? Isn't losing $10k like... nothing?

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Man, stop, take a break and then rebuild. I have never had 30K however i have had the rush of turning 20 bucks into 10K and then tilting on one bad night and lost it all trying to rebuild. I may still not know too much about all the scientific poker stuff but i know enough about getting sucked out on over and over and over again. Feels like you cant win.


However i dont want anyone reading this to think i was saying i am a good player, i am just saying that Ive been there,,,, sort of, and know the feeling but the one thing i did learn was to drop down and rebuild as need be,

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

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This caused me to lose 15 buyins.

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Welcome ! I lost 15buyins too some time ago, it wasnt 2kNL though.

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I have 8K in my roll, down from about 40K a week ago.

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40k is not enough of a bankroll for 2kNL if you are not willing to move down in time. From your description it is clear that you dont have discipline for good bankroll management. Every day is good to start though. Try 400NL and go down to 200NL if you drop 2k or sth.

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I had back to back months where I won 30K in about 10,000 hands.

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10k hands is nothing. I dont understand sentence above.. does it mean that you played 10k hands each month ?

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I'm an idiot for not moving down to 1000 when i hit 20K BR, but I felt I was dominating 2K enough to comeback. Well, that burned me.



[/ QUOTE ]
You werent dominating anything. If you in fact had dominated that game you would have much more in your account. Sorry.

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This pretty much just sucks.

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Yes it does. Go to 400 or 200NL and start to work on your discipline.
Nothing compares.

Best wishes

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

According my accountant, its not required unless youre filing as a pro.


[ QUOTE ]
Why aren't you paying taxes quarterly as required?

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Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
10k hands is nothing. I dont understand sentence above.. does it mean that you played 10k hands each month ?

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Yeah, I played 10K hands in August, made $30K, 10K hands in Sep., made $28K, before that I was at 1000NL and made $15K in a month there. So yes, I know what I am doing.

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You werent dominating anything. If you in fact had dominated that game you would have much more in your account. Sorry.


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I cashed that all out and put it into the stock market, so it is secure. I'd rather rebuild than risk ruin.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
According my accountant, its not required unless youre filing as a pro.


[/ QUOTE ]

Which I am not.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Whether you are filing as a pro is completely irrelevant, you will have to pay penalties if both:

a) you pay less than 90% of your total tax liability for the year through withholding or quarterly payments.

and

b) you pay less than 100% of your tax liability for last year through withholding or quarterly payments.

Actually its slightly more complicated than that, but that's the general idea, filing as a professional or not has nothing to do with it.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

"According my accountant, its not required unless youre filing as a pro."

get a new accountant

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know guys but i think either november is an unlucky month or its party. No im not saying its rigged, maybe they got alot more loose players with their commercials and stuff. Because this month in Party i, too took a beating. I am not playing high stakes like you are, but i went from a $1400 roll playing 3/6 and beating it by 2bb/hr in 10k hands, to a $400 roll. Maybe someone can look at their PT database from last year and see if they experienced something similar.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this a gimmick account?

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Perhaps you're not that good and were just having a lucky streak.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I played 10K hands in August, made $30K, 10K hands in Sep., made $28K, before that I was at 1000NL and made $15K in a month there. So yes, I know what I am doing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Heh.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Play within your bankroll. Be willing to move down.

Just cause you had some temporary success doesn't mean you should be playing that game.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According my accountant, its not required unless youre filing as a pro.


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Which I am not.

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Not to be a cheese, but you guys with 15k+ poker tax bills should really take the time to learn the tax codes. And I don't mean to find someone with CPA after their name and ask. I mean do independent research so YOU know what's up. It seems silly to me to learn to beat big poker games only to give it back at tax time through ignorance.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]


Heh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I'm not saying I'm the best player in the game. But after witnessing the fundamental mistakes there, I know for a fact I can beat it. It's not I am claiming to be able to beat the big UB games. Ask any of the regulars whether they think I am a winning player. My old name was Sparty665 up until the skins broke off.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have always had at least 10-15 buyins for low limit. I moved up to 10/20 while still playing some 5/10. I had about 15 buyins (still short of optimal), but I quickly was bankrolled correctly when I started beating the game.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Your accountant is wrong. If you expect to owe more than $1000 on April 15, you will be penalized for not filing quarterly (there is a sort of grace period but consult your accountant on this). Anyway, anyone w/ non-W2 income that expects to owe more than a grand must file quarterly-otherwise, you're taking an interest free loan from the IRS.

Jeff

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

How am I supposed to estimate quarterly payments when the variance is so high? For example, this quarter I am down. Secondly, I won pretty much all my money in the 3rd quarter. I never knew I would be making this kind of money back in March or April...

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

well I'm kind of in the situation you are in. I got really bored of playing poker and didn't need the money. Well when I got bored I bet and lost a large amount betting sports and playing stupid games like no bust blackjack, pai gow etc in the pits here in LA.

Building back a bankroll was fairly easy. I too started back at the 400 NL and 5/10 limit. Though I would play any game that was good from NL200 to NL1000 and 5/10 to 20/40 limit. I actually played less hours because I'm already bored but my game selection was much better.

8k is plenty and the few hands that I have with you, on almost all the big pots you got the money in ahead.

good luck though

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

Brief Suggestions Please

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have always had at least 10-15 buyins for low limit. I moved up to 10/20 while still playing some 5/10. I had about 15 buyins (still short of optimal), but I quickly was bankrolled correctly when I started beating the game.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I was asking BICYCLEKICK.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have always had at least 10-15 buyins for low limit. I moved up to 10/20 while still playing some 5/10. I had about 15 buyins (still short of optimal), but I quickly was bankrolled correctly when I started beating the game.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I was asking BICYCLEKICK.

[/ QUOTE ]

just because it worked for him doesnt mean its the right thing to do. BK definitely plays within his bankroll now though.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

hi jonny.
playing the party 2k SH games w/ a 40k roll is laughable.
you need way more...
these swings u describe mean nothing... dont get too proud of winning 30k and dont be devestated by losing 30k, its not that big a deal.

obviously, you arent ready to play this high.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I played 10K hands in August, made $30K, 10K hands in Sep., made $28K, before that I was at 1000NL and made $15K in a month there. So yes, I know what I am doing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wait wait so you've played 30k hands and that means you know what you're doing? That definately shows a gross misunderstanding of the game.

I'm sure now you'll think I'm being harsh but I'd bet you anything that if you continue playing and come back in a year or two you'll understand where I'm coming from.

You're not ready for anything close to 2k nl. Not the 1k's either. You might have ok hand skills but your poker maturity isn't there. Play a lot lower.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Play within your bankroll. Be willing to move down.

Just cause you had some temporary success doesn't mean you should be playing that game.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I didn't when I first started. I got a free 50 bucks and played a lot of .25/.50 and .5/1. I had no idea about bankrolls and all of that and I was just as foolish as this guy. I did play 2/4 and 3/6 for a couple months and blew back most of what I'd made (all the way down to +700) so at that point yes, I did play within my bankroll by dropping to .5/1.

Either way, this guy shouldn't feel bad because nobody has a clue when they start out, it's just he needs to understand that he really is in fact, pretty clueless with regaurds to poker.

Re: So I just lost 30K......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Play within your bankroll. Be willing to move down.

Just cause you had some temporary success doesn't mean you should be playing that game.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, have you always played within your br?

Or did you play on a short br at low limits so you could move up quicker?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere here that's how you did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I didn't when I first started. I got a free 50 bucks and played a lot of .25/.50 and .5/1. I had no idea about bankrolls and all of that and I was just as foolish as this guy. I did play 2/4 and 3/6 for a couple months and blew back most of what I'd made (all the way down to +700) so at that point yes, I did play within my bankroll by dropping to .5/1.

Either way, this guy shouldn't feel bad because nobody has a clue when they start out, it's just he needs to understand that he really is in fact, pretty clueless with regaurds to poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I understand your last point, I wasn't trying to throw that back in your face or anything.

I think there is a big difference between playing outside your br at .5/1-2/4 limit and 1K and 2K NL. If you go bust at .5/1 it takes about a week of minimum wage pay to get back on your feet.