I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

hello. i have played 200nl for like 18 days now and well.. not happy with the results. i just want to know if my graph looks normal? im sure it doesnt. i am gettinf frustrated. i cant seem to get a good streak going. its just continuous ups and downs. always breaking even.. is this just variance? it cant be.. i mean the graph is like a danm stalemate. well anyway these are my stats.

hands: 12,190
vp$ip = 23.56%
won money at showdown: 49.56% (problem here??)
PF raise: 10.25%
BB/100: .5bb/100
Agression factor: 2.4


heres my graph.

http://saturn.walagata.com/w/nirrrr/nir.jpg


so guys please give me any advice you can. dont just say "just variance". someone i know showed me a graph of over 25k hands of 10bb/100 with a graph that looks so damn beautiful!!stressless!!. so advice away. critique away. anything else ya need to know just ask. i dont even no if anything can be said but.. just looking for some encouraging but honest words.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

at least you're not losing.......

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

uh, he's obviously trying to move up and beat a new game... and looking for suggestions

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

i think i read u 6 table? if this is true, first suggestion is drop down to three tables or four. if all u are doing is waiting to make hands against these guys they will notice. yea, you will still stack the megadonks but the most exploitable player in 200NL are the so called lags that fill its ranks. lot of the guys i have been playing have vpip of 50-60+ and pf raise 20+. this is very exploitable. u should be in there mixing it up with these guys taking pots away from them. sure u wont take them all away, but when they sense u are playing back at them they will give u unlimited action with any peice of the board vs. ur monster. conversely there are some rocks. hard to make money off them, exercise some game selection. i am three-four tabling it currently and the games are great. just lessen the number of tables and get a feel for what type of opponent u are playing. g2g to bed but just some suggestions.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
uh, he's obviously trying to move up and beat a new game... and looking for suggestions

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I'm going to be as polite as possible in this post.

He is not succeeding, and posting a graph of his swings and his PVIP/PFR/etc. isn't going to give him the help he needs. Given the information in this thread, it would appear he is outclassed at the $200 level, or is suffering from some long term variance and needs to either A: Post hand histories for critique, or B: Move back down and improve his style of play again.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Yes, your game probably has holes. On the other hand, I've had a breakeven stretch for 10k hands, it could just be a bad run of cards. Postflop play is usually the problem in NL.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think i read u 6 table? if this is true, first suggestion is drop down to three tables or four. if all u are doing is waiting to make hands against these guys they will notice. yea, you will still stack the megadonks but the most exploitable player in 200NL are the so called lags that fill its ranks. lot of the guys i have been playing have vpip of 50-60+ and pf raise 20+. this is very exploitable. u should be in there mixing it up with these guys taking pots away from them. sure u wont take them all away, but when they sense u are playing back at them they will give u unlimited action with any peice of the board vs. ur monster. conversely there are some rocks. hard to make money off them, exercise some game selection. i am three-four tabling it currently and the games are great. just lessen the number of tables and get a feel for what type of opponent u are playing. g2g to bed but just some suggestions.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dropped down to 3 tables after my huge slide and then started 4 tabling. as of now i 4 table. and i do mix it up. my stats are not extremely tight stats i dont think.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Keep trying to improve your game. Don't get into thinking that you're doing everything right and just get unlucky. However, do keep in mind that it's very possible that you are in fact doing things well enough to be a winning player and that this is a tough losing streak. Bad runs of over 30k hands happen.

If I had to make a comment about your stats, I'd say that your PFR % may be too high. You could be getting into too many big pots with too many low quality hands. It is said that VP$IP and PFR % should increase cooperatively, so perhaps to use PFR of 10%+ well, your VP$IP should be closer to 30. Otherwise, your opponents may (correctly) interpret you as overaggressive preflop and take advantage of that.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

12K hands is meaningless for winrate concerns (figure out the 95% confidence interval of your winrate after this many hands and you'll see why). You will not get any meaningful replies about your other stats, either. I have seen people with roughly your stats who are terrible; I have seen others who are pretty good.

If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

ok guys, ill post a new graph after 13k more hands.hopefully things will have changed. plus minus 500 EVERY freakin DAY is getting to me!!

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

To the OP: how did u make this graph?

i just moved up to nl400, and have not had the best of it over 1K hands. The 200 game is quite beatable. (I'm not that good, but I've had nice results there the last few months.)

12K hands over 18 days?? Maybe you need to play less tables, concentrate more on your play and on game selection?

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

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Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the case. i have played with Nir he is a solid player. fwiw the post about lower pf raise is a good idea imo. (mine is around 8, not to say that is right but a players raising more than ten percent is simply making pots with hands that cannot support them....this is fine if the table will let u run them over, but with all the sheriffs in 200nL i say u make it lower)a relatively high percent of hands goto showdown in 200NL and c-bets are not as successful as in 100NL.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

just looking at this chart i can tell you need to decrease your calorie intake and try exercising more often

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this a lot. So obvious, but hard to do when you zone out on autopilot.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually thought of doing this same thing the other day, but haven't tried it yet. I'm expecting it to be one of the most boring things ever, though. Have you tried this? Did you find it helpful? I'm a 100NL player looking to move up to 200NL as well, but I need to improve my game before I do so.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

no ones going to read your hand histories man

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

sigh... i went +700 today and now im at -300.... JUST DOESNT END.. ya i kinda have a feeling no one will but had to take a shot. thanks anyway. if there was anyway i can look at a 6bb/100+ players hh's in party, it would be great. i would be willing to pay to c it!!

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the case. i have played with Nir he is a solid player. fwiw the post about lower pf raise is a good idea imo. (mine is around 8, not to say that is right but a players raising more than ten percent is simply making pots with hands that cannot support them....this is fine if the table will let u run them over, but with all the sheriffs in 200nL i say u make it lower)a relatively high percent of hands goto showdown in 200NL and c-bets are not as successful as in 100NL.

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whats your sn in party if you dont mind asking. also whats your bb/100 and if you dont mind, can u post your 200nl graph. or ANYONE who plays in partypoker, can you all post your 200nl graphs. i want to c what a solid graph looks like. =/

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

i'll post mine if you tell me how

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'll post mine if you tell me how

[/ QUOTE ]

go to this site
http://www.walagata.com/
1.make an account
2.then upload the picture. (should b icon on top to upload)
3.then view your picture(should b a icon on top to view)
4.click your picture
5.go down and copy/paste the link that starts with [IMG] here.

done.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Seeing someone elses graph isn't going to fix your play.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Dude how did you get Pokergrapher to work? Mine hasn't worked since the new PT patch.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
12K hands is meaningless for winrate concerns (figure out the 95% confidence interval of your winrate after this many hands and you'll see why). You will not get any meaningful replies about your other stats, either. I have seen people with roughly your stats who are terrible; I have seen others who are pretty good.

If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")

[/ QUOTE ]

I already do this at the lowly 25NL level. Although, I 4 table, so many times I can't go back into orbits(unless I have a note) if I wasn't in the hand with the certain player. But I always make sure I have a SOLID reason as to why I am making a certain play.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

i got that part, but how did you make the graph itself? Can you do it through PT, or do you have to use excel or something?

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seeing someone elses graph isn't going to fix your play.

[/ QUOTE ]

it will give me something to reach for and someone to bother on advice [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

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i got that part, but how did you make the graph itself? Can you do it through PT, or do you have to use excel or something?

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use pokergrapher. mine works perfectly.. so dont no why the other posters doesnt. if someone can help please do so. and i think there is a link on one of the faq's for pokergrapher.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the case. i have played with Nir he is a solid player. fwiw the post about lower pf raise is a good idea imo. (mine is around 8, not to say that is right but a players raising more than ten percent is simply making pots with hands that cannot support them....this is fine if the table will let u run them over, but with all the sheriffs in 200nL i say u make it lower)a relatively high percent of hands goto showdown in 200NL and c-bets are not as successful as in 100NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats your sn in party if you dont mind asking. also whats your bb/100 and if you dont mind, can u post your 200nl graph. or ANYONE who plays in partypoker, can you all post your 200nl graphs. i want to c what a solid graph looks like. =/

[/ QUOTE ]

Hows this for solid?
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a3...55/6max10K.jpg

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you need to try dropping down a level? You may just currently be outclassed.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the case. i have played with Nir he is a solid player. fwiw the post about lower pf raise is a good idea imo. (mine is around 8, not to say that is right but a players raising more than ten percent is simply making pots with hands that cannot support them....this is fine if the table will let u run them over, but with all the sheriffs in 200nL i say u make it lower)a relatively high percent of hands goto showdown in 200NL and c-bets are not as successful as in 100NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats your sn in party if you dont mind asking. also whats your bb/100 and if you dont mind, can u post your 200nl graph. or ANYONE who plays in partypoker, can you all post your 200nl graphs. i want to c what a solid graph looks like. =/

[/ QUOTE ]

Hows this for solid?
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a3...55/6max10K.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont want to see all limits. can you please post your ONLY 200NL hands? i have good overall graph but my 200nl graph sucks.. can u please post your 200nl graph in party.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

ok, that took a long ass time, but at least i get to show the stats while i'm running good...

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2...1600/nl200.jpg

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

All but 100 hands on this graph are from $200NL 6 max. The other 100 are from $400NL 6 max.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you really want to work on your game, single table, read hands for every player involved in every hand, and vocalize why you are doing everything you do (eg. "I'm raising because ______ led weak and folded to a raise a couple orbits ago so I can probably take this away here. If I don't, I can take it away on the turn if it is a _____ or a _____ but should give up if its a _____")

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually thought of doing this same thing the other day, but haven't tried it yet. I'm expecting it to be one of the most boring things ever, though. Have you tried this? Did you find it helpful? I'm a 100NL player looking to move up to 200NL as well, but I need to improve my game before I do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 3-table 1/2 and 2/4 6-max and I do this for almost every hand I play. It forces you to know why you're doing what you're doing. I do it in advance as well. For example, I might have been raising preflop a lot and taking it down with a continuation bet every time so, when I make my next raise, I've often already decided if I'm going to bet the flop or not (provisionally, of course, as betting some hands on some flops is almost mandatory). Its most useful when you're deciding whether or not to call because calling forces you to show down the best hand or make an aggressive play on a later street. If you don't think you can get paid off if you make your hand and aren't getting immediate odds to draw at it (as is often the case with a flush draw on the turn), you have to have some idea of what river cards might be good ones to bluff with as well as a good estimate of the likelihood of your opponent folding to a bluff. Its not all strictly mathematical (i.e. "I need x number of cards to bluff with and he needs to fold y percent of the time") but you need a good feel for about how often different plays need to be successful and this feel changes a lot based on your opponents and your table image (which are two things that are also dynamic).

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

After a rough downswing, I rededicated myself today. Ran good, hit a couple sets, and finished the day way up. I noticed myself making some slightly sophisticated plays that I usually wouldn't think of.

For example, I was first to act and bet the flop and turn with low two pair. My usual play on the river would be to bet half the pot and fold to a raise, but here I had a feeling he might try to bluff overs. Sure enough, I checked he bet the pot, I called and he had a missed straight. Plays like these happened 3 or 4 times over a 2 hour, 4 table session, which really added up in the end.

Moral of the story: I guess I paid a little less attention every day and it had gotten to the point where I was basing decisions solely on my cards and HUD stats. Didn't realize how bad that was for my game.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

I was thinking of playing some without the HUD and just relying on the force. Curious to hear if anyone actually stopped using it for good or maybe turns it off after settling in at the table with some reads.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok guys, ill post a new graph after 13k more hands.hopefully things will have changed. plus minus 500 EVERY freakin DAY is getting to me!!

[/ QUOTE ]

You (look to have) tilted like 350 bb in the middle of that graph. Without that, your winrate would be good.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

Iceman, did you post your prettiest 12k for us to see? It doesn't seem intuitively correct that your swings aren't more wild.

Re: I am BREAKEVEN in 200NL (graph) please analyze my stats
 

i was talking to a fellow 2+2'er on aim and for the first time i actually got an interesting response.first he told me that he has never seen drop this bad..(refering to my 6000-7000 interval drop). He said "you must have been on tilt." and well he was right. but then he said "well if you didnt go on monkey tilt that day then you would have had a nice profit and good bb/100. and you know what... he is right. i am looking at my graph and if it wasnt for that 1 day of complete madness, i could have been a winner. maybe i am not playing that bad.. maybe i should just play 20k more hands and then analyze. that 1k hand stretch, i basically threw my months profit away. or atleast a majority of it. but it was just interesting. i never saw it that way. let me know what you guys think. i did get a confidence boost.