Paying people off.
 

I think that this may be what keeps my game from "the next level." In this hand, I am up against a LPP and believe on the flop that he has an ace, and likely better than mine. Is this a fold, and if so, which street.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Re: Paying people off.
 

Pay the man!

Re: Paying people off.
 

How strong is your opponent? If you are planning to put in a bet on the river, I would try bet-fold.

The turn might be fold, but too would have a hard time doing that. You are very likely playing a few outs at least, very likely a few split outs too.

Very tough hand, and I think most would feel the same way about this one. However, I am at the same "level" as you, although I am unsure whether it is for these reasons.

lars

Re: Paying people off.
 

Very weak opponent. He is one of the fish, to be sure. The stats on him were like 44/4/.5 of course thats less than 200 hands most likely. I can imagine him just calling with AQ and maybe even AK here PF.

Re: Paying people off.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pay the man!

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Re: Paying people off.
 

do you really play 20/40?

Re: Paying people off.
 

either do something on the turn or call it down. calling the turn and check/folding the river is horrible in my opinion, and serves no purpose.

Re: Paying people off.
 

I remember reading a 1800GAMBLER post in which he suggested that it might be correct for him to call the turn and fold the river with his nut-no-pair. This is a little different though. This isn't a tricky opponent. I highly doubt that he raises T8 on the flop. I also doubt he'd bet Ace-no kicker on this "scary" river. He's a fish. A fish who plays very passively, but has raised the flop and bet every street. As Lars pointed out, I may have 3 outs to a win or, after the turn, 4-12 outs to a split pot. Maybe. I think his hand range is 77,99, 79, A7, A9, AK-AT, and possibly A2-A6, A8. The least likely in that group is A2-A6, A8 based on the flop raise and the river bet. I really think I'm calling down hoping to catch a split pot or a miracle T which may or may not be good. The chance that this very passive villian has a hand that falls outside of that hand range is very small. &lt;5%. And of those 5%, 95% of those hands were saved by either the turn or the river. Are you sure that I can't let go of this on the turn or the river.

Re: Paying people off.
 

[ QUOTE ]
do you really play 20/40?

[/ QUOTE ]
do you have anything better to say?

Re: Paying people off.
 

There is no right/wrong answer here that heavily outweighs the other. I'm for laying down on the turn, though. As you played it, you have to call the river. This is one of those spots where i'd probably muck the turn, or, get hyper agressive and spew chips, and, lately, it's been the muck choice, largely because in spots like this I think you are always paying off two pair or a bigger ace on the flop....



Tex

Re: Paying people off.
 

Against someone who is .5 aggression. I'd fold the turn.

Re: Paying people off.
 

If he had AK or AQ (or even AJ), he likely would have reraised pre-flop. So if he has an A, there's a very good chance that your kicker is good. Shouldn't even consider folding the river.

Re: Paying people off.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he had AK or AQ (or even AJ), he likely would have reraised pre-flop. So if he has an A, there's a very good chance that your kicker is good. Shouldn't even consider folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

loose passives rarely reraise these hands preflop

Re: Paying people off.
 

I can see the purpose calling the turn and folding the river serves but not too sure if it's correct without working it out.

From combinations you are winning about 60% of the time considering he'd play little aces this way. You only need to win 10% of the time. So he would only have to bet his little aces 17% of the time's he held them for you to be correct to call.

Do 1/5 of the players with these stats bet the river AND c/r the flop with A2? I don't think so. The reason i don't think that is because i don't think the c/r the flop rather than the river bet so i would be more inclined the fold the turn.

Re: Paying people off.
 

For clarity, he raised the flop. He has position.

Re: Paying people off.
 

I'm just wondering does anyone try to win this hand here or do you automatically give him credit for a better ace? Even LPPs know how to play position

Re: Paying people off.
 

I think folding the turn is bad here. AJ is the most likely holding and you have 8 outs to chop and 3 to win. I also think that this type player is calling all suited aces preflop and raising them maybe 50% of the time on this flop.

Bet folding the river agaisnt this player seems best since I do not think he is raising a worse hand. Check call is OK.

SO, I think folding the river is better than folding the turn. But, I think you are good enough here for the river call.

Re: Paying people off.
 

Isn't this how a loose, passive player plays AK? You can probably fold on the flop.

Re: Paying people off.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think I'm calling down hoping to catch a split pot or a miracle T which may or may not be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's bad. very bad.

Re: Paying people off.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think I'm calling down hoping to catch a split pot or a miracle T which may or may not be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's bad. very bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

either you need to speak in complete sentences, or I need to be more clear in mine. What I was saying is that IF I choose to not to fold, then all I have is the HOPE that I will "catch a split pot or a miracle T which may or may not be good." What do you mean when you say:
[ QUOTE ]
it's bad. very bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Paying people off.
 

i just meant it's bad calling down hoping to maybe split the pot and/or catch a miracle card