Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

This is down to 180 players or so and I've been fairly liberal with my PFRs up to this point, but I haven't shown too many hands. Villian in this hand has been very tight, and I haven't seen him re-raise pre-flop in the past hour or so. Is this a bad fold here getting 2.5:1 pot odds? Is his range big enough that I should call here even though I run the risk of crippling myself?

NL Texas Hold'em Trny:17384419 Level:12 Blinds (500/1000) - Sunday, November 13, 20:47:04 EDT 2005
Table $500K Guaranteed(506970) Table #20 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: davidfaulk ( $51247 )
Seat 3: BurgerLover ( $11755 )
Seat 5: Caines1 ( $21825 )
Seat 6: Danielcerda ( $6401 )
Seat 7: gnarle_com ( $53180 )
Seat 8: F00LH0USE ( $7684 )
Seat 9: river_genius ( $4802 )
Seat 10: impliedcap ( $19484 )
Seat 2: Wogee ( $21315 )
Seat 4: man_w_noname ( $29003 )
Trny:17384419 Level:12
Blinds (500/1000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BurgerLover [ Kc Qh ]
davidfaulk folds.
Wogee folds.
BurgerLover raises [2500].
man_w_noname folds.
Caines1 folds.
Danielcerda is all-In [6401]
gnarle_com folds.
F00LH0USE folds.
river_genius folds.
impliedcap folds.
BurgerLover ???

I fold this and I have M=6 with the blinds headed my way, but a pretty tight table that I have some FE against. Lose this and I'm down to M = 3.5 or so.

thoughts?

thanks,

ts-

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

i fold that in a shot if the guy is that tight,kqo is not nice all in

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

this is where i need help in figuring out what to do - i have the odds to call even if I'm dominated by A/K or A/Q, right? so the only hands I'm really afraid of here are KK and AA, right? just want help making sure that i understand the math and pot odds correctly.

thanks,

ts-

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

I wouldn't raise with that hand in EP/MP. Too many players to act behind you. KQo isn't that great.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

you are right on the pot odds bit but if the guy is really that tight he is reraising with aa,kk probably,QQ probably.

although maybe he was tight as he was getting junk cards sao hard to know,id feeel better folding this hand though

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

so you just call it? i rather raise,you can steal the blinds which are worth 1500 now ,if reraised you can fold i suppose depending on who reriases

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

does this not look a lot like the siro/rizen hand?

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

kind of - but i'm not either of those guys and i sincerely doubt that my opponent is either. difference in that hand is that opponents know each other and i definitely don't know the opponent here.

more thought on it and i'm now convinced that if my stack was just a few BBs larger, it's a much easier call. i don't mind getting caught raising PF here with K/Qo - it's still one of the better hands that i had been raising with. i also think that the chance he has something besides AA, KK, or QQ is large enough to make the call EV+, but i still don't like having to call so much of my stack here.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

You're probably behind but the pot odds make it a decent call...
I give less credence to villain's tightness because he's so short stacked, but it still plays in, which makes it close. So I don't know.
I probably call but I don't read opponents well enough.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

Oh dear god people, this is one of those INSTA CALLS.

Do I have to give a lesson on pot odds for [censored] sake?

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

fold preflop!!!!!!!!!!!!! <u>FOLD PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</u>

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop!!!!!!!!!!!!! <u>FOLD PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</u>

[/ QUOTE ]


STOP BEING RETARDED!!!! GIVE REASONING!!!


The reason he should fold pf is because of his stack size. You didn't say this, so the OP doesnt know if its because his hand sucks, or becasuse of his table or what. Also if the table was real tight i wouldnt fold this, i would also raise 2.5x.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

fair enough

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear god people, this is one of those INSTA CALLS.

Do I have to give a lesson on pot odds for [censored] sake?

[/ QUOTE ]

true you have to factor in pot odds if you think he is rerasing with overcards or a lower pair,but the description of the guy is that he is real tight,

he still has a stack of 4 blinds worth so i think a tightie would wait for a better spot to build his stack,like stealing,not a reraise all in with a smallish pair or overcards,

although on the other hand he might look tight if he was getting junk hands the whole time,

ok to be honest i dont know what to do now [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

I think the raise is fine...as at this stage of the tourney you are really trying to take the blinds with that raise. I dont understand why you feel you will be crippled if you called. You would still have ovet 25 BB if he has you completly dominated and takes downt he pot. I call this right away without giving it a second thought.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

first yawn and then call. Am I reading this right? You are getting around 3-1 with KQo all in preflop?

-Jason

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

I dont know...my thoughts are his range at this point includes any PP over 66 and A8 or higher.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
true you have to factor in pot odds if you think he is rerasing with overcards or a lower pair,

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You always factor in pot odds. It is part of every single decision you make.

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

The pot is 10401 when it gets to you and have to call 3901, so you are getting 2.66:1.

Even if you put him on the insanely tight range of AA-99,AK, you are a 2.24-1 dog, making this a clear call.

Since you only have 11 BB's you have to decide before you enter the pot, what you will do if someone comes over top.

If you don't want to call, fold PF.

If you want to play the hand, its probably best to push PF.

With 11BB's and being UTG, I fold this here, unless the table has been uber-tight PF, but I still would probably fold.

Not a great hand, and you have a whole table of hands behind you, so not a great situation either.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

opps I was looking at wrong chip stack...still doesnt change my decision. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is 10401 when it gets to you and have to call 3901, so you are getting 2.66:1.

Even if you put him on the insanely tight range of AA-99,AK, you are a 2.24-1 dog, making this a clear call.

Since you only have 11 BB's you have to decide before you enter the pot, what you will do if someone comes over top.

If you don't want to call, fold PF.

If you want to play the hand, its probably best to push PF.

With 11BB's and being UTG, I fold this here, unless the table has been uber-tight PF, but I still would probably fold.

Not a great hand, and you have a whole table of hands behind you, so not a great situation either.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Woodguy,

I think you just about covered everything that I should have been thinking about in this hand. I think the most important thing, though, is what you said at the end - with 11 BBs and in relatively EP, I should be folding this. The table was pretty tight, but I had been raising a lot PF, so it was only a matter of time before someone played back at me. Unfortunately I didn't really think about this before I made the raise here. I think it's a good raise from LP at this table, but not from EP with my stack because I'll have to lay it down to any of the other sizable stacks and by raising it in EP there's a greater chance I'll get re-raised. I could have waited another round to find a better hand or better position to steal with. The fact of the matter is that if I am not willing to call a re-raise with the hand, then it is a steal attempt - and in this case, an ill-advised attempt. I am still trying to learn how to change gears effectively, and I think this is an instance when I needed to gear down but didn't.

About the pot odds - I really do think the guy was as tight as your range (AA - 99, A/K). I will check with my PT stats later tonight, but he hadn't played many hands at all in the past hour. Yes, I know that I have to factor in that he was getting short and was getting desperate, but I still think there was a 50% or better chance that I was facing AA - QQ. When I get home tonight I'll try do run a calc using Harrington's method.

thanks for the response,

ts-

Re: Hand from Party $500K: weak-tight or good fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop!!!!!!!!!!!!! <u>FOLD PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</u>

[/ QUOTE ]


STOP BEING RETARDED!!!! GIVE REASONING!!!


The reason he should fold pf is because of his stack size. You didn't say this, so the OP doesnt know if its because his hand sucks, or becasuse of his table or what. Also if the table was real tight i wouldnt fold this, i would also raise 2.5x.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the insight Ansky. I am still working on understanding how my stack size affects what hands I can play. Although I think Harrington is a bit rigid with his zones theory, I do think much of it is very important to understand and I still have a lot to learn when it comes to applying this theory in the middle of a tourney. I think part of my problem here was that the blinds had just increased, and I didn't think hard enough about what that meant in terms of my M. I had been pretty active with my PFRs and it was time for me to gear down a bit (before people started coming back over the top of my PFRs), but I hadn't thought that all through yet.

Congrats on getting deep and thanks for the response,

ts-