Numbers every poker player should know
 

This thread got me thinking about certain mathematical principles that every poker player should know. What does the following list of percentages indicate?

100%
77.4%
58.6%
43.0%
30.5%
20.7%
13.3%
7.9%
4.02%
1.9%

The first correct answer will receive 10% of the $250 EPVIP October that I anticipate I will never receive (see Internet Bonus forum for complete details).

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Nobody should know what any of those numbers are, unless it's to impress not very sharp people with useless trivia.

eastbay

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Your ITM rate as you move up the levels? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Nobody should know what any of those numbers are, unless it's to impress not very sharp people with useless trivia.

eastbay

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Or you want 10% of his "winnings"[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Simple. The percentage that a bad beat story deviates from the truth each time it is told. There is a similar progression over in the fishing forum.

Onaflag.........

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

The problem with being "the funny guy" is that when you make a serious post no one takes you seriously.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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The problem with making annoying posts is that when you make another annoying post no one takes you seriously.

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FYP.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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The problem with making annoying posts is that when you make another annoying post no one takes you seriously.

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FYP.

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Yes he is very anoying [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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The problem with being "the funny guy" is that when you make a serious post no one takes you seriously.

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My post was not meant to be funny, it's meant to be a criticism of the idea that those are numbers that every poker player should know. IMO, they aren't. Knowing those numbers is a sign that you're wasting time on useless things. Whether or not anyone takes my opinions seriously is up to them.

eastbay

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that every poker player should know?

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?

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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.

eastbay

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?

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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.

eastbay

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Unless you are holding pocket 6s.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?

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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.

eastbay

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Unless you are holding pocket 6s.

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You're missing the point pretty solidly, I think. They key is not the number but the word "useful".

eastbay

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

100% - amount of time the board will not have overcards if you have AA preflop, %s going down to 55. What do I win? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

If Empire pays me my bonus, $25. (I wouldn't hold my breath)

Since these numbers aren't useful, but trivial, try these card modifications for Party (and Stars) that make it easier to recognize suits for the multi-tabler.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?

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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.

eastbay

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Unless you are holding pocket 6s.

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You're missing the point pretty solidly, I think. They key is not the number but the word "useful".

eastbay

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I think eastbay's saying that having a general idea of these percentages is important, but exact numbers are a complete and utter waste of time. Obviously an AKQ and a T52 flop are drastically different overcard flops for 99, for example.

I have never, ever, ever used exact percentages while at a table to make a decision. The closest I've come is calling all ins with a draw, I count my outs and get an idea if my pot odds are roughly enough. Numbers are so dynamic that memorizing specific spots will only make you fixated on making that spot apply to your calculations, instead of calculating based on that specific spot. Obviously you're a good enough player that you're using reads and pot/bet sizes and information like that in your decisions, but by memorizing and concentrating on some ten-commandment set of percentages you'll find yourself going with your reads less, playing your opponent less, and otherwise losing the color from your game.

I do think doing calculations like these away from the table can help you get a feel for where you stand during a hand, but at the core they aren't what makes you a great player.

Everett

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Another important number is 0.47.

That is the number of seconds my opponent thinks before calling a pot sized bet with his non-non-non-non-non-non-non-nut-flushdraw.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

I think that its a legitimate post- obviously you dont need to know the exact %s, but i think its pretty important to have a good idea of the %s of different situation. Im just to lazy to look them up.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?

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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.

eastbay

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Unless you are holding pocket 6s.

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You're missing the point pretty solidly, I think. They key is not the number but the word "useful".

eastbay

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I think eastbay's saying that having a general idea of these percentages is important, but exact numbers are a complete and utter waste of time. Obviously an AKQ and a T52 flop are drastically different overcard flops for 99, for example.

I have never, ever, ever used exact percentages while at a table to make a decision. The closest I've come is calling all ins with a draw, I count my outs and get an idea if my pot odds are roughly enough. Numbers are so dynamic that memorizing specific spots will only make you fixated on making that spot apply to your calculations, instead of calculating based on that specific spot. Obviously you're a good enough player that you're using reads and pot/bet sizes and information like that in your decisions, but by memorizing and concentrating on some ten-commandment set of percentages you'll find yourself going with your reads less, playing your opponent less, and otherwise losing the color from your game.

I do think doing calculations like these away from the table can help you get a feel for where you stand during a hand, but at the core they aren't what makes you a great player.

Everett

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Well said. I only have the energy for the provocation these days. Thanks for filling in the blanks.

I'll make my penance by adding something about my take on useful vs. useless:

Something like knowing that you have a little better than a 3/4 shot at getting an aceless flop for your KK is probably worth knowing (but read on), but knowing 77.4% is silly.

Furthermore, I submit to you a post I made a long time ago inquiring about these odds. There's a nice adjustment in there offered by Bozeman (it's a real shame he gave up on 2+2, btw, although I don't blame him), which is further evidence for why memorizing a number like 77.4% doesn't make much sense:

http://tinyurl.com/b3p8a

Furthermore, the idea that "every player should know" that you're 4.02% to not flop overcards with pocket sixes is ludicrous. It would even be silly to know 4%, although considerably less ridiculous than 4.02%.

What you should know is that you should count on flopping overcards with pockets 6's if you don't hit your set. The idea that somehow that 4% chance of not flopping overcards should be a factor in your thinking is wrong-headed. There are so many other far more important factors that to consider that 4% is only a distraction from what you should be thinking about and a way to screw up your play, not improve it.


eastbay

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

suited Im with you.
Btw I had already worked those numbers all the way down to pocket 10s but I wasnt able to find the relation on your post. I find those numbers more useful for LHe but thats just me.

To Everyone else: if you dont feel like using those numbers, dont.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Nobody should know what any of those numbers are, unless it's to impress not very sharp people with useless trivia.

eastbay

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i'm pretty sure you're taking his post too literally.

I don't think he's trying to say to memorize the numbers, but rather to have a good idea of how often it will happen.

But, i don't think it's all that useful anyways. (as long as you're not totally braindead)

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

As I am sure another poster will point out even these numbers are not very useful/accurate. You are counting flops like A95 rainbow here as an overcard flop. Technically it is an overcard flop but its also my ideal flop in that situation. The funtional percentages here are probably a couple of percentage points higher than your listed values.

Edit: Follow the tinyurl link eastbay has in his post and read Bozeman's two posts. He articulates what I was getting at well.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

I totally agree with your position, knowing that with TT you wont see overcards 1/3 of the time is useful.
However I think that with smaller pocket pairs the number aint that important.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

For the record, I don't think it's the point of your post that sucked (We need more numbers in this forum, and you might as well give the exact ones so that people can look at them and estimate it however the hell they want). I just hate that you had to make it a quiz, rather than just some nice info (and also that you had to sneak in whining about not getting your bonus).

If a new person comes to this forum, he's likely to click on a thread that says "numbers every poker play should know", only to find a list of unqualified numbers with a little whining sneaked it. He then has to scroll down through all the joke answers (which were inevitable given your reply) and a few cryptic responses from eastbay before he finds one correct, basically unmarked answer. Then, he'll find a bunch of debate over whether or not this info is even relevant.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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As I am sure another poster will point out even these numbers are not very useful/accurate. You are counting flops like A95 rainbow here as an overcard flop. Technically it is an overcard flop but its also my ideal flop in that situation. The funtional percentages here are probably a couple of percentage points higher than your listed values.


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The inaccurate numbers were taken from King Yao's book "Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker." It's a good book if you are concerned with trivial matters like how math applies to hold 'em poker. The number of significant digits is more than anyone needs, and I thought that a quiz with a prize would be more fun than posting a table that anyone who wants to spend $24.95 on a book can see.

Sorry I brought it up.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

sorry I agree with eastbay. Knowing the exact numbers is almost completely worthless and almost never applicable in any game situation. Of course it helps to have a general feel, but such a feel for hands like JJ-99 is pretty obvious. I'll tell you straight up that I don't know how often an overcard will come to my 77. I know the answer is very often, and I think thats about all I need to know.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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The inaccurate numbers were taken from King Yao's book "Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker."

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Waahhh! I have no idea of King Yao's intent with those numbers. That book is sitting next in my pile just below Psychology of Poker. That being said, those numbers ignore those flops that contain an over but also one of your own cards giving you a set. Personally I like having a set. You might not.
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It's a good book if you are concerned with trivial matters like how math applies to hold 'em poker.

[/ QUOTE ] Honestly, what's the point of this reaction when somebody is attempting to point out a not insignificant oversight to your original post/point? If you don't think that excluding those cases where you hit a set should be excluded from that list for functional purposes then I wonder if you really are "concerned with trivial matters like how math applies to hold 'em poker."

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Why you continue to be a favorite of people on this board is beyond me. That's my only comment

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How does it feel? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

I just go by the mantra of JJ about half flops, TT about a third of flops and 99 about a quarter of flops where an overcard won't fall. And KK will come with an A exactly when I don't bloody want it to, that's for sure.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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The inaccurate numbers were taken from King Yao's book "Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker."

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Waahhh! I have no idea of King Yao's intent with those numbers. That book is sitting next in my pile just below Psychology of Poker. That being said, those numbers ignore those flops that contain an over but also one of your own cards giving you a set. Personally I like having a set. You might not.
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It's a good book if you are concerned with trivial matters like how math applies to hold 'em poker.

[/ QUOTE ] Honestly, what's the point of this reaction when somebody is attempting to point out a not insignificant oversight to your original post/point? If you don't think that excluding those cases where you hit a set should be excluded from that list for functional purposes then I wonder if you really are "concerned with trivial matters like how math applies to hold 'em poker."

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What did the OP have to do with flopping a set (which is 11.8%)? The original list was only the % of time that the flop will not bring an overcard.

How this whole firestorm began with eastbay saying it's not important is beyond me. It's not important, but useful. I, obviously, made a huge mistake by using the word "should." I clearly should have used the phrase "may like to."

Edit: Why the hell does this thread over 1300 views?

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

This ought to be good for another 5 views....

Sixes spends $50 ($25 bounty + Barnes and Noble) to offer readers an interesting topic and something to think about.

And gets flamed for doing so. Nice.

A lot of people might expect an entertaining and off-topic post by the "usual suspects". I'm proud to be among both groups. Thus the number of views.

Too bad that the percentages weren't tied to inane stuff like "Yugo gets laid 2.04% of the time he dates". That would have produced no flameage and some entertainment.

Instead, a respected poster and player presents a topic that offers an opportunity for other players to learn, have a little discussion and perhaps get an answer "right" for profit.

Under these circumstances, who would want to post anything but "Fold KK pre-flop?" or "OT Hampster picture"?

Luck is the residue of design. You get luckier the more you know. The OP was trying to help y'all get more knowledge and share some of what he has learned. Take it for what it's worth. If it is worth nothing to you, perhaps you are "unlucky".

LuckyMcSlack

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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inane stuff like "Yugo gets laid 2.04% of the time he dates".

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"Inane" = What you call somebody who takes the $1 "bonus" bet when playing a (+)EV game like Letit'Ride

FWIW...I noticed that the list of %'s were asymptotically approaching zero; I therefore assumed that the #'s represented the chance (stated as a percentage) that 66's was giving himself of getting laid the closer he actually was getting to "Date Night" [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Nobody should know what any of those numbers are, unless it's to impress not very sharp people with useless trivia.

eastbay

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I don't share this point of view. If you're any good at doing arithemtic in your head, why wouldn't you want to know reasonably precise percentages for the various common situations? It's not like we're talking about ten places after the decimal point or anything.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

SuitedSixes--
Thanks for taking the time to post this table. I have never seen it before nor heard about it. I feel that this information will help improve my game, as it will give me a better understanding of what the flop might look like when I'm debating playing pocket pairs against tight players.

I really appreciate the time you took to do this.

Thanks,
Baz

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Nobody should know what any of those numbers are, unless it's to impress not very sharp people with useless trivia.

eastbay

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I don't share this point of view. If you're any good at doing arithemtic in your head, why wouldn't you want to know reasonably precise percentages for the various common situations? It's not like we're talking about ten places after the decimal point or anything.

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ilya tell me one practical value for knowing these exact numbers? I mean everyone should have a general feel, but there is no practical benefit to knowing the precise numbers. I mean I couldnt have told you whether the number was 43%, 45% or 41% for JJ, but I knew it aws somewhere around there (I knew it was a bit less than 50%). Not knowing the difference between the above figures would never have a serious impact on my play.

Let's just asy that if you asked Phil Ivey or a horde of other pro players these questions, I would bet that he couldnt consistantly come within 1% of most of the answers, but would come within 3-4%.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Thanks for pointing out these numbers. Despite the criticisms others are offering, I'm glad you brought up this list. It got me thinking about things and I computed a few more numbers. Thought provoking is usually good and this post was thought provoking for me.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

You're welcome, Baz.

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Thanks for pointing out these numbers. Despite the criticisms others are offering, I'm glad you brought up this list. It got me thinking about things and I computed a few more numbers. Thought provoking is usually good and this post was thought provoking for me.

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You're welcome, zabt.

(I have quite a following from people with z's, a's, and b's in their names.)

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

Just wanted to let you know, those PS cards in your link are sweet...I like'm [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The specific link to the PS cards are here

Re: Numbers every poker player should know
 

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Just wanted to let you know, those PS cards in your link are sweet...I like'm [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Agreed. The link to the alternate card art made this thread worth reading for me.