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kurosh 11-10-2005 02:20 AM

Assessment
 
Bank account: $1,791.24
Party poker account: $1192.92
Cash in hand: $500? maybe

Bank account down from 15k in 2-3 months... I bought too many toys and had to pay off school loans. I have no expenses. I promised to never replenish my poker account from 6k 2-3 months ago whenever I withdrew it all.

Poker... I tilt badly and I run bad or maybe I just suck. I had 4.5k yesterday haha, then this and more losing.

I also manage to always lose whenever I'm upset even though I think I'm playing fine. Assuming (and this is a big assumption) that I'm a winning player at any form of LHE or NL, including SNGs, what would be the fastest way to rebuild? I'm not redepositing... I should have had 2k in rakeback coming to me, but 1k died with pokershare and I'm still waiting for the other 1k from another site.

I don't really know... I think it's because I am upset about other aspects of my life and it shows itself in poker.

Moesky 11-10-2005 02:29 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Find a way to be a happy, then play poker.

Maybe find a new site to play on? I always play my best when I join a new site because I'm not bored of it yet.

kurosh 11-10-2005 02:44 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Moesky wtf? I haven't seen you in the longest time and then you pop out of nowhere.

sweetjazz 11-10-2005 02:59 AM

Re: Assessment
 
I can't tell from your stats how much EV you lost from tilting or playing bad, but you obviously ran really bad. You dropped 168 BB or so...that's a downswing that can happen at LHE.

Your BR wasn't big enough to play those limits (particularly 10/20) without some not insignificant risk of going broke. I don't know whether you are trying to play for a living or whatever, but I hope not because you don't have a BR for it. I would suggest slowly rebuilding your bankroll. Now, even playing 3/6 has some risk of ruin. You need to assess why you are playing poker and whether you are willing to slowly grind your way back up the limits. I think a lot of people in your situation keep playing limits high enough to run a risk of ruin. And I suspect a lot of them bust out at some point and have to find a way to earn outside cash to start the cycle over again.

Personally, as a recreational player myself, I focus on maintaining a discipline to play within my BR and be willing to play a lower limit when appropriate (be it for BR reasons or to work on my game or for game selection reasons). It's not easy, but I think it's the winning play.

TStoneMBD 11-10-2005 03:12 AM

Re: Assessment
 
8table 2/4 or 3/6 for a month. if youre good at poker youll have a bankroll in no time seriously.

billyjex 11-10-2005 04:38 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Sucks bro. Seems like you have some pretty crappy money management, even when you don't have a lot of cash.

Play some 3/6, just [censored] grind it out. Stop spending money on stupid stuff.

Alex/Mugaaz 11-10-2005 08:56 AM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
8table 2/4 or 3/6 for a month. if youre good at poker youll have a bankroll in no time seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get some good bonuses and just crush some low games. While I'm all for playing a lot of games well, everyone should have a specialty or 2.

stigmata 11-10-2005 09:36 AM

Re: Assessment
 
You know this stuff already, but you really should have a 500+ BB bankroll for 10/20 6-max or whatever, which is untouchable.

I really don't know how a player of your experience has got themselves into this situation. It's pretty dumb, because youv'e now limited your earn potential for the next month or two through poor money manegement. It's like being an investor with nothing to invest. Just grind a 10k roll back out, and then leave it well alone.

ggbman 11-10-2005 11:32 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Well, i'm not going to try and sugar coat this. You need to learn to manage your money better, and you should have learned this after you over extended yourself last time and lost a big chunk of your role. I think people on these forums read the stories of people like James, BK, etc... and want to emulate how quickly they progressed. These guys are phenomenal players who also ran well at some good times, and i'm sure they will both tell you that.

So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

From this day on, your goal should be to NEVER take an uncalculated risk. I dont give a [censored] how good a higher game looks, you need to reduce your ROR and grind it out. This part of the process is not fun, but it's develops your maturity as a player which will prevent this from happening in the future. There is no way you should have been playing 10-20 yesterday. Best of luck rebuilding your role.

Gabe

SippinSoma 11-10-2005 11:57 AM

Re: Assessment
 
This is very solid.

11-10-2005 01:38 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

lighterjobs 11-10-2005 02:52 PM

Re: Assessment
 
are you only playing shorthanded?

if you are going to eight-table you probably need to play full ring. if you only have $1200 don't play any higher than 1/2. 600 bb's for 6-8 tables should be plenty if you don't go on crazy tilt. don't get in a rush to try and win back lost money. I think patience is the most important thing here.

Justin A 11-10-2005 04:59 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

[/ QUOTE ]

The roll/role think is a pet peeve of mine too.

pudley4 11-10-2005 05:02 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

[/ QUOTE ]

The roll/role thing is a pet peeve of mine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yahweh 11-11-2005 10:10 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Take ggbman's advice and start small and don't get in a hurry. I don't believe you have to have 600BB to play at a certain level though. More like 400 but the point is to grind it out. It's a marathon not a 40 yard dash.

MicroBob 11-11-2005 11:35 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]

Take ggbman's advice and start small and don't get in a hurry.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yup.

Sorry that you are running so poorly kurosh.
I think it takes a bit of courage to post this after some of the blasting you took back in the day.


Also, strongly consider the bonus-whoring opportunities available through the crypto-skins.

Even if you don't have accounts at some of those places already...it usually doesn't cost too much to put in the minimal amount and grind out the bonus (and perhaps get rake-bkca along with it).
If you don't have an account at some of the cryptos though then you need to be aware that you can't cash-out until you get the PIN via regular 'snail-mail' and obviously you can't afford to have very much money locked-up at one site or another.


Otherwise, I agree with going down to 1/2 or 2/4 and really working your ass off to rebuild your ROLL (not role).


ggbman's comments that you obviously shouldn't have been playing that high with that little dough and that you need to conquer some of these money-management issues are certainly spot-on.
But you already knew that.

Good luck. I truly hope you put it back together.

ZeeJustin 11-12-2005 03:17 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Low variance is crucial for bankroll rebuilding. Stay away from MTT's. I'd probably play only SNGs if I had to rebuild. They seem to be the lowest variance available.

timprov 11-12-2005 03:35 AM

Re: Assessment
 
This sort of catastrophic situation is part of why I bother to keep a metric [censored] ton of bonus stacked at sites where they don't expire.

11-12-2005 12:31 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
Low variance is crucial for bankroll rebuilding. Stay away from MTT's. I'd probably play only SNGs if I had to rebuild. They seem to be the lowest variance available.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am very new to poker and I thought LHE had less variance than no limit or SNGs... are SNGs the lowest variance? Thanks

uw_madtown 11-12-2005 01:58 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice.

We were talking about this on IRC, and kurosh was talking about being back to 10k within a month. Of course, at the time you didn't include your bank account in there, and given that it might be doable if you start at 3/6 6m. But personally, I'd leave your bank account alone, drop your rakeback into PP when you get it, and just grind at 2/4 until you have 500 BB, then move up to 3/6 6m, play til you have 500 BB, etc etc. Maybe even make it 600 BB for 6m. If you don't want to have to move down ever again, you really need to maintain a huge bankroll.

If you want to get back up there as soon as possible, you could move up whenever you have 300 BB for the next level, but that's sort of what has you in this situation in the first place, isn't it? Like everyone's saying, this is a good time to force yourself to accept bankroll management. While it may cost you in opportunity cost, if you don't start properly managing your bankroll now, you're going to continually find yourself losing out in opportunities in the future after you hit a downswing.

Take it slow. Grind it out. Rebuild, and you'll be back to 5/10 or 10/20 fairly soon.

Greg J 11-12-2005 02:47 PM

Re: Assessment
 
I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, variance in hold em goes something like this:

Multi table tournies >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>> Limit HE >>> NLHE > SnGs

If this is any way inaccurate someone will (and should) come behind and correct me.

MicroBob 11-12-2005 08:01 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Yeah...that's pretty much my understanding as well.


you can also obviously toss-in a:

Heads-up limit > 6-max limit > full-ring limit

FlyWf 11-13-2005 12:03 AM

Re: Assessment
 
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

SmileyEH 11-13-2005 05:11 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd tend to disagree although it's pretty close either way. You are correct about the variance aspect though.

-SmileyEH

ggbman 11-13-2005 05:41 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having done both, i can tell you that this is incorrect. ($$$ wise)

stillbr 11-13-2005 09:10 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having done both, i can tell you that this is incorrect. ($$$ wise)

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here.

Jgents 11-13-2005 11:55 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Bonuswhore (Poker/Casino) your way to like 4-5k (or more) easily in less than one months time. Nothing easier.

lehighguy 11-14-2005 03:27 AM

SnG = Variance
 
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

ggbman 11-14-2005 04:45 AM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice.

We were talking about this on IRC, and kurosh was talking about being back to 10k within a month. Of course, at the time you didn't include your bank account in there, and given that it might be doable if you start at 3/6 6m. But personally, I'd leave your bank account alone, drop your rakeback into PP when you get it, and just grind at 2/4 until you have 500 BB, then move up to 3/6 6m, play til you have 500 BB, etc etc. Maybe even make it 600 BB for 6m. If you don't want to have to move down ever again, you really need to maintain a huge bankroll.

If you want to get back up there as soon as possible, you could move up whenever you have 300 BB for the next level, but that's sort of what has you in this situation in the first place, isn't it? Like everyone's saying, this is a good time to force yourself to accept bankroll management. While it may cost you in opportunity cost, if you don't start properly managing your bankroll now, you're going to continually find yourself losing out in opportunities in the future after you hit a downswing.

Take it slow. Grind it out. Rebuild, and you'll be back to 5/10 or 10/20 fairly soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, not trying to be a nut buster here, but setting a goal to make it back to 10k in a month will be contigent on running good and moving up too fast. You're young, emhpasize learning the game better and learning from your mistakes. Work on your stream contol, and move up more gradually. I can tell you this; there are always going to be people who make more money than me because they are willing to take some chances. But you don't hear about the ones who run up 6 figure roles and lose it all back because they don't know when to settle down.

It's good that your willing to take chances, but sometimes the hardest thing to do is make yourself take less chances. This is such a long term game. Last month i had horrid results at 100/200, and i am confident that i was a winner in the lineups i was playing. So i made myself move down, and this month i've been doing extremely well playing lower. Dont think about getting a certain amount of $$$, focus on playing poker and the rest will come.

kurosh 11-14-2005 05:00 AM

Re: Assessment
 
I need to post this to feel better. I had 400BB for 3/6, then this:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls $1.50 (All-In), UTG calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 7s 8d (high card, king).
UTG has Ks Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Js Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins 17.75 BB. </font>


villain is crazy aggro

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kh Ad (one pair, kings).
Button has 5d Qd (straight, king high).
Outcome: Button wins 14.50 BB. </font>



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd Ad (one pair, kings).
UTG has Ah 9s (straight, ten high).
Outcome: UTG wins 14.50 BB. </font>


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Jd Th (straight, ace high).
Hero has Ah Kc (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: SB wins 14 BB. </font>

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Qh 8c (straight, king high).
Hero has 9s 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: SB wins 8 BB. </font>

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has 2s 5s (straight, six high).
Hero has Kc Ks (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: UTG wins 7.66 BB. </font>

That was the worst of it... 400 hands -12.40BB/100. At least now I'm more confident I'm running bad and not a losing player. Back to 2/4.

stillbr 11-14-2005 10:48 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Kurosh---
U gotta stop posting bad beat stories man. No wonder people find you annoying on here. Bad beats happen to all of us, what makes you think we care an extra ammount about your bad beats. BTW-- I do think you have skills to be a winning player, but if you cant make yourself stop thinking about the $$ then you are constently going to go broke.

krishanleong 11-14-2005 11:05 AM

Re: Assessment
 
By Catt

This is a dim-witted post;
The kind that we all hate the most;
A jumble of stats,
Or downswinging “Rats!”
Like a virus in search of a host.

If you are a good, winning player,
As opposed to a chip-spewing brayer,
Get back to the felt,
Play the hands that you’re dealt,
And soon you’ll be doing OKer.

Take my advice, please, you unthinking clod,
In the form of this good-natured prod,
This won’t help your game,
But will get you flamed,
Stop posting this crap! Where’s the Mod?

Krishan

Greg J 11-14-2005 11:43 AM

Re: SnG = Variance
 
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

handsome 11-14-2005 11:52 AM

Re: Assessment
 
Sup dude... I think it's healthy that you get this out of your system. Bad beat posts are alright as long as they're infrequent. Take a few days off if you have to. You'll come back stronger than ever.

jgorham 11-14-2005 12:25 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Solid [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mmbt0ne 11-14-2005 12:29 PM

Re: SnG = Variance
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

stillbr 11-14-2005 01:29 PM

Re: SnG = Variance
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno..but its interesting...
Why SNGs have more varience than ring games

mmbt0ne 11-14-2005 01:49 PM

Re: SnG = Variance
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno..but its interesting...
Why SNGs have more varience than ring games

[/ QUOTE ]

This line is all you really need:

If you are a small ROI earner, then ring games might have less variance if you are good at them.

He's talking about someone who is better at limit than they are at sngs. Also, I know it'll freak most of the math people out on this board, but I have serious problems with the SD measures as they relate to winrate. I don't think they are anywhere near accurate enough, and we shouldn't be assuming a normal distribution to analyze the math in poker.

I don't know what we should be using, and maybe(likely) nothing is perfect, but the way we do it now, there is a lot of room for error. Of course, the biggest problem is that most people tend to ignore that error when they run good, thinking instead that they are just a higher winner, or at least the interval that their winrate should fall in is higher than it really is, and then they think they're a 1 in a million case when they start to run just as bad. If I get really bored and people are actually interested I'll try to put together my thoughts a little more coherently. But, for now, I think that makes enough sense. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

JohnnyHumongous 11-14-2005 01:54 PM

Re: Assessment
 
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

Kurosh, if I were you I would focus on getting back up to the bread-and-butter stakes that you know you can succeed at day in and day out. I assume this is 10/20 or at least 5/10. I would "gamble" a bit with my roll if I were you because it's not like you're a 1BB/100 winner at stakes such as 3/6 so you really don't have to fear a 300BB downswing. I would be a little more aggressive if I were you because:

a) a 300BB downswing at 3/6 is highly unlikely for a strong SH player with ample 10/20, 20/40 and higher experience;
b) you are wasting a ton of earn every day you spend wasting away at 1/2 and 2/4 and the likes rather than 5/10 and above.

You can be aggressive with your roll in different ways, for instance playing some 2/4 and some 3/6 when you only have 1000-1200 in your account. Or dabbling in 5/10 when you near 2K, 1 or 2 tables of 5/10 and the rest 3/6. Remember, 300BB downswings are much, much more likely for 1BB/100 winners than 3BB/100 winners and I'd be shocked if with focus you're less than a 3BB/100 winner at 3/6.

Just my thoughts. Best of luck.

stillbr 11-14-2005 02:05 PM

Re: Assessment
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just posts too many sob stories and bad beat posts. His 100-200 experiance comes from running good while way over playing his bankroll. Its not a big supprise that he is nearly broke considering the way he went up.


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