wizards/clippers tonight
 

im pretty sure the wizards will handle the clippers in washington. am i wrong?

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

Two things to consider: (1) Antonio Daniels is out for the Wizards, to be replaced by Jarvis Hayes, and (2) Maggette might be back tonight for LAC. The Clippers have played pretty well without him.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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am i wrong?

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i hope so [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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i hope not [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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under also plz

Hmm. I got under 186.5 at -129. I wonder if I should try to middle this.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

Hmm. I got under 186.5 at -129. I wonder if I should try to middle this.

why, do you think over 182.5 is a good play?

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

No, not really. I'm just wondering out loud so to speak.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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No, not really. I'm just wondering out loud so to speak.

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if you dont think over 182.5 is a good play, then you dont go for the 'middle'. what ends up happening is this. lines that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all. if you try and 'middle' your good plays, you suck up all the EV in those and remain on the coinflips at full price.

of course, if you think there is value in the over 182.5 then its a independent +EV bet and the chance to catch a middle is just an added bonus.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all.

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Hey Sublime,

Can you explain this a bit more?

ElSapo

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all.

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Hey Sublime,

Can you explain this a bit more?

ElSapo

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look at it from a pure marketplace perspective. he 'bought' the under at 188 and its now selling at 182, giving him a boatload of value. people often oversimplify (or ironically, over complicate)sports betting into saying its all about picking winners. now, of course you need to pick more winners than losers to make money. however, in reality you are trying to beat the market. the same way a day trader at home does etc.

example:

this weekends game between SD and NYJ. the market was dealing a 6/6.5 everywhere. i found a 7 -110 on the jets, now despite having zero opinion on the game, i am forced (as a +EV bettor) to take NYJ +7.

i hope that makes sense, i am probably not good at explaining this stuff.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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am i wrong?

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yes

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

Sorry for the late response to this, but...

...mayeb I'm still not clear on this idea. Why does the bet have more value because the line moved?

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look at it from a pure marketplace perspective. he 'bought' the under at 188 and its now selling at 182, giving him a boatload of value.

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Why does the bet have more value? He still has the same bet -- u188, albeit the line moved. But I guess what I don't see is how the line move affects him.

Semi-hypothetical: I'm in a pool where we pick against the spread. The lines go up on Monday and do not move througout the week. By your statement, I would be best off waiting until Sunday morning and comparing actual lines to the pool lines, and betting where I saw the most value?

I guess what I mean is, the bet is still the bet, and our man made his bet based on his belief at the time. Just because it appears many people agree with him, books included, does not seem to add value inherently.

The six-point o/u move is a big one though, I'll give you that.

Am I way off here?

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

Why does the bet have more value? He still has the same bet -- u188, albeit the line moved. But I guess what I don't see is how the line move affects him.

Let me try it this way. Instead of moving POINTS, lets move money and keep the spread the same. I dont know what a half point is worth in the NBA in regards to totals, but I will guess 5 cents. So, our guy bought:

under 188 -110

the market is selling the same product now at:

under 188 -170

basically telling this guy that he made a wise investment in this particular game. the bets he has in that the line either didnt move, or moved against him are not as strong, or it some cases have negative value.

its the same as the stock market. if this doesnt make sense, its because i am not good at explaining it or something. maybe somebody else can give a better example.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

Semi-hypothetical: I'm in a pool where we pick against the spread. The lines go up on Monday and do not move througout the week. By your statement, I would be best off waiting until Sunday morning and comparing actual lines to the pool lines, and betting where I saw the most value?

Yes

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

No, I think I understand what you mean now, thanks for explaining it again... I think the "wise investment" reference helped.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

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No, I think I understand what you mean now, thanks for explaining it again... I think the "wise investment" reference helped.

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cool. i have a hard time explaining how i think in general. probably because i am warped.

Re: wizards/clippers tonight
 

SSB thread

Sapo-

Thsi thread from a long while back on SSB should be more helpfull. Even if its not, it has some great stuff in it, especially from Dreamer.