HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

You are third in chips at the final table with 395000 with chips and on the button with blinds at 10000/20000 and a 1k ante. You have A6 on the button and raise to 40000. A good, extremely aggresive small blind calls with 593000 (2nd in chips). The flop comes 624 rainbow. SB leads out for 70000, and you make it 140000. SB thinks briefly and pushes. Do you HOLDEM or FOLDEM.


*I know some of the decisions leadin up to this point are suspect at best. I'm gonna ask you not to comment on them for now. I'll explain why they were played this way in the results. Also, no going to the fridge to ask Jesus.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I call the push.

Why the miniraise? Why not call or push on the flop. Saves you this decision.

I suppose you can steal with anything on the button, but I am not crazy about raising preflop with a junk hand.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I am not crazy about raising preflop with a junk hand.

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I wouldn't say Ax is a junk hand on the button. Yeah, you might get played back at. And you'd like to just win the pot pre-flop. But you obviously have a hand that rates to be best versus the random blinds.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

what's his range of hands here?
You're drawing nearly dead to a flopped straight and if he has a set you're pretty cooked. Honestly I can't see folding. Of course I have not thougt it through as well as I should....

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

i'd hold 'em. might be tougher without the read.

how many are left at the FT?

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

holdddddddem.

If i added up the pot right, it's your last 200k to win nearly 600k in the pot.

He's aggressive and he didnt reraise you PF, so i think middle pairs aren't part of his range (or arent there often). Maybe he's slowplaying QQ+, but even that doesnt seem right. I think he's just defending with crap. He could have lots of hands that you beat (45, 56, 67, etc etc) and i think he'd play them similar to the way this went down. He bets out expecting you to raise, you make a minraise, so he decides you missed your overcards and he pushes.

anyways, w/ 3:1 pot odds, you dont even have to be ahead often, but i think you are.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]

*I know some of the decisions leadin up to this point are suspect at best. I'm gonna ask you not to comment on them for now. I'll explain why they were played this way in the results. Also, no going to the fridge to ask Jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Difficult to answer without knowing why you got here. Whatever caused you to play this way against this opponent also affects the river decision.

(ironically, this is the (obvious) flaw in the commercials)

In a vacuum, foldem.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

6 left. You started the hand in 3rd. If you call and win you will jump to 2nd about 10000 behind first. If you fold you will be in 4th with 5th and 6th being very short.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
6 left. You started the hand in 3rd. If you call and win you will jump to 2nd about 10000 behind first. If you fold you will be in 4th with 5th and 6th being very short.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate everything about this hand, so I might as well call. You already have almost half your stack in, I call and hope to see 67s/65s.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I think the pot odds are pretty irrelevant here. The tournament equity is significantly more important, and I don't know the pay structure, so it's hard to say. Have you seen this guy overplay top pair this way? Middle pair? What's your history with him? Does he think you're tight? Would he put you on a bluff here?

I'd say it's pretty likely that he has a worse-kicker 6 and puts you on overcards, but it's hard to say without some history.

Raise more earlier so that it makes his decisions more difficult. I don't really like pushing early, but stop minraising. It's bad.

-mark

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I think I'd call. I'm trying to come up with a range of hands where you shouldn't. If we put him on an overpair (with some decreased chance of having some of them because he would have raised pre-flop or would just call the raise on the flop to trap), take away sets where he would probably trap, include something like 55 that could be the best hand with a draw, and some hands of overcards semi-bluffing - you're at least 50/50 here. So with the overlay I think it's +EV to call.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I shouldn't have eaten those uh, four pizzas. *runs off to the fridge*

HOLDEM, but I'm a donkey. I bet he flips over something like AA, KK, AQ-9, A2-A6, 76, 87, 77-22 or even KQ. I don't think he calls preflop with QQ-88 or AK, but I have no read (obviously).

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

oh, and in case you think its relevant. pay-outs aer roughly:

1. 8k
2. 5.5k
3. 3.5k
4. 2.5k
5. 1.7k
6. 1.2k

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the pot odds are pretty irrelevant here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot odds are never irrelevant. Yes cEV is applicable here. But pot odds factor into deciding if something is +cEV because obviously if you're winning a bunch of chips it's more +cEV then if you're winning just a few.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I think you already knew what you were going to do when you mini-raised on the flop.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

need to re-raaise more in this spot.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

pot odds, are always relevant, but we have a chipev $ev problem here i think.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I can't imagine you have worse than 50% equity vs his range.
so if you call
50% of the time you'll have an M of 22. $EV = X
50% of the time you'll be gone. $EV = 0
for a combined value of M of 11. of $EV =X/2.

if you fold
100% of the time you'll have an M of 5.5. $EV = Y.

--
so is (X/2)>Y ?

i'm going to make up an excel sheet now to figure out ICM for 6 payouts.. then i shouuld be able to estimate what X, and Y are.


i'll post the results.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Total chips in play?

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

roughly 2.5 mil.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Ouch, this is a real toughie. I think you are ahead more often than not, I'd rather call than be knocked down to roughly 200K with those blinds and antes. Sure, you'd still be in the game, but you are probably ahead of superaggro's range right now, and winning this pot will make your chip count almost 800K.

Fold, 200K, Call and win, 800K, call and lose, 6th place...

I'm going for first, I call here.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Sorry, I have to comment on 1 decision. The min raise on the flop I don't like. Push here and put him to a decision. There is a good amount in the pot and I would be happy to pick it up here without a showdown. Also you want to put your opponent to a decision for all his chips. Don't give them the chance to put you to a decision. So push to his bet on the flop.

You said 5th and 6th are both very short so it sounds like he can still fold and have a chance to improve. I think it would be tough to call your push on the flop without a pretty decent holding and you might fold off a better hand that will reraise your min raise.

I think your min reraise committs you(which is why I say push). So my final decision is HOLDEM. Also I think you are a favorite here but not by a huge amount.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

holy jesus this is going to take forever.

i just finished getting %'s to finish 1st and 2nd.

so.. uh yea i might abandon this if it gets too crazy.

edit: figuring out 3rd place is where it starts to get crazy. So... yea, i give up.

hold'em!

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

You're guaranteed $1200. The total prize pool remaining is $19,700. Let's say you're 50/50 versus his range although I think you might be even a little ahead.

If you fold, you're left with 214,000 out of 2,500,000. So you've got 8.56% of the chips for a $EV of $1,686.

If you call. You'll lose 50% of the time and have a $EV of $0. The other 50% you'll win and have 814,000 chips. That's 32.5% of the total for a $EV of $6,414. So the $EV of calling is $3,207 clearly ahead of that of folding.

In this case, it was such a no brainer because of the pot odds that I knew it would be cEV and $EV.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Fold em. His re-raise lays you about 3 - 1, and i dont think this is enough, given you are left with 10BB is you fold, and moving up another pay spot or two is pretty good money at the final table.

Some more info would be needed to change the decision though, like what chip position does 200k put you at? How many players left at the FT? Is the caliber of play such that you will be severely punished for having a smaller stack?

Interesting to see what other people have said so far.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

not tryring to be nitpicky, but isn't cEV, chip EV? i've been under the impression that +cEV means that you profit in chips, and that +EV means you're worth more.

either way, you showed what i was trying to show.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

$3,200 ahead, yes, but I don't put it at 50/50 versus his range. I think we're 35/65. It's not a no-brainer here.

We're only given so much time on the spot to put villain on a range. Yes, he's super aggressive, and he just called a really small raise out of the SB. He probably figures he can outplay you, and rightly so if villain is the kind of player who minraises preflop and minraises on the flop.

Villain's range is huge until the last raise. I'd think less in terms of math and more in terms of what villain's motives are here. Is he making the raise for value, or is it because he thinks he can blow hero out of the pot? How active has hero been, how solid? Has hero been the aggressor or patiently waiting? These are all things to seriously consider before you automatically think "Okay, he's super aggro, give me a range *number crunch crunch*".

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Whoops sorry. Yes, I meant $EV.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Put him on a range of hands.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

And with a little algebra you can see that it's break even at 26/74. So at 35/65 it' still +$EV.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I think its a little trickier than that lloyd. you have to consider the likelihood of finishing in each spot, not just your share of the prize pool i think. im not disputing the result, I just think the method is overly simplistic.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're guaranteed $1200. The total prize pool remaining is $19,700. Let's say you're 50/50 versus his range although I think you might be even a little ahead.

If you fold, you're left with 214,000 out of 2,500,000. So you've got 8.56% of the chips for a $EV of $1,686.

If you call. You'll lose 50% of the time and have a $EV of $0. The other 50% you'll win and have 814,000 chips. That's 32.5% of the total for a $EV of $6,414. So the $EV of calling is $3,207 clearly ahead of that of folding.

In this case, it was such a no brainer because of the pot odds that I knew it would be cEV and $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


atually just changed my mind about this. You didn't figure out $EV.. you just changed the units for cEV. for $EV you need the probability to finish in each spot. or to estimate, take a guess at what you're worth w/ 800k stack, or w/ 200k stack.


edit: by changing units i mean, all you did was insetad of MLG having 800k chips, he had $3000. But that doesnt translate into actually figuring out what he's worth.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

No, you don't. The way I calculated $EV is a fairly well established (albeit not pefect) method. What you are discussing is ICM which also has its problems. I try and stick with methods that I can quickly calculate (or at least approximate) in my head so that they actually become useful at the table.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a little trickier than that lloyd. you have to consider the likelihood of finishing in each spot, not just your share of the prize pool i think. im not disputing the result, I just think the method is overly simplistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. chip count method misses the horror of busting when there are two tiny stacks, and also overvalues a really big stack. but nobody has a fancy icm program for more than 3 payouts, right?

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

yeah, I call.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, you don't. The way I calculated $EV is a fairly well established (albeit not pefect) method. What you are discussing is ICM which also has its problems. I try and stick with methods that I can quickly calculate (or at least approximate) in my head so that they actually become useful at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]


No, you really didnt calculate anything about $EV. You just showed chip EV w/ differnet units

Using what you did, cEV and EV will always be the same thing.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

The only mental modification I would make is that if the small stacks are SO short stacked that there is very little chance for them to move up in the money. In that case, I would consider just folding pre-flop. If that's not the case, I believe my calculations are close enough.

I understand it's a little simplistic but I think it's accurate enough.

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

Did I just read that right? You, MLG, made two MINraises? Hmmmmm

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

I think by far the most likely outcome is that you have 5 outs, so I fold. (But while I know you said not to say anything yet, I push the flop. Let's talk about the minraise when you post the results, I think that's the more important part of this hand.)

Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
 

You give no possibility to overcards, 55, or some other type of draw? That's really the key to the hand. Is he semi-bluffing here or not.