Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Pretty early in the session.

Button in this hand is phisy, very loose aggro pre-flop but not as aggro post flop.

MP2 is definetly tight and seemed pretty passive at the time. He is a multi-tabling, however I haven't played much in this game yet so I don't know if he is a regular or not. After getting many more hands on him he is definetly very passive post-flop.

On the flop, I sometimes go for the c/r sometimes lead this time went for the lead. I could have hands that lead the flop and would make the straight and then lead again, but they wouldn't no that at the time.

Do you think this is a good spot to keep the initiative on the turn?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($86)
CO ($49.85)
Button ($83.70)
SB ($97)
BB ($64)
UTG ($97.25)
Hero ($139.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP2 calls $10, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($40.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I hate this situation.

I think leading the turn is best. If you don't lead the turn and its checked through to a river spade, you'll be in a world of hurt. Also a weak straight here may fold on the turn, but if you check he may bet or call you on the river.

If you are raised on the turn I think you need to wind up all-in. Your odds will be close with these stack sizes against a straight, plus there is a decent chance that you are up against a badly played underset by these passive opponents (or underset + flush draw).

If you just get called and don't fill up, its going to be a tough play at the river.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

That's pretty much were my head was during the hand. The Tighty calling on the flop was a suprise as his MO is fold-fold-fold. After the hand I was thinking a check might be prudent because he is so tight that the 10 might make his hand but I didn't want to simply check call in the 3 way pot getting 3:1 (what could have easily have happend). Figured maybe he might find a fold or simply call down with a lower set and I would been fine with getting heads up with the fish as he would be more likely to go broke with a lower set or two pair.

As it played out tighty pushed and the fish folded. It was 48 bucks into a ~135 pot. Based on my hunch of tighty I doubt he was playing a set like this since a) he is so damn passive and b)fish was left to act and probably calls too much. Probably marginal EV either way and I let him take it down.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

there's a fair chance you're against an uninterfered wrap and just died

check and look for a price

edit.

oh, you only need to be good a little more that 1/4 of the time here

i can't see folding for that price. like dude said, underset + FD is just as likely.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

[ QUOTE ]


i can't see folding for that price. like dude said, underset + FD is just as likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so against this villian. He is was playing very weak tight. If you are familiar with Poker Tracker stats he had 22/.07/.5 (VPIP/PFR/Post Flop Agg) with a very low went to showdown percentage in ~350 hands. Certainly it's possible but definetly not as likely as having the made straight.

Thought it might be usefull to do an EV calc to see how often he would need lower set + flush draw compared to the made straight. Keeping it simple where with the straight I still have all 10 Boat or better outs and with the set/fd he has 8 outs.

Total pot would be 183 and my current stack is 101.

183 * .227 = ~41
183 * .818 = ~150

150x + 41y = 101

So if I did my calcs right to break even at 101 I need him to have the set/fd about 45% here. Against this guy I am not sure I give much up folding, thought it might be good for the image to call there.

Against an unkown opponent or the other villian I don't think I would have any problems getting it in here.


[ QUOTE ]
If you are raised on the turn I think you need to wind up all-in. Your odds will be close with these stack sizes against a straight, plus there is a decent chance that you are up against a badly played underset by these passive opponents (or underset + flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Tilt,

I was thinking a little more on this. If when I made my bet and was content to get all in against either of the opponents, do you still like my bet size? Pot must have been about 38 bucks after rake. Seems if we are going to call the all in maybe we should pot it so that we charge more (have a better shot to win it flat out) and then are getting in with better odds if they push. A smaller bet might be good to induce a semi-bluff raise, but with these pot/stack sizes I think that is pretty unlikely to happen.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

No, I like your bet size as is. A spade draw or unmade straight draw may still call (but may muck to a bigger bet). If you are called in one or two places, a smaller bet gives you more room on the river to maneuver.

If you are flat called in both places to a river blank you have enough behind to make a block/value bet on the river and fold if they come over the top. If your read is that one of them has a weak straight (based on your knowledge of the opponents) and can make a fold you can pot the river.

If you are called in both places to a double scare card (broadway spade) its an easy check/fold I believe.

If you are called in one place to a blank value/block the river or make a read above against a possible weak straight. If you are called in one place to a non-broadway spade, value/block bet, to another broadway card I probably just check/muck.

There is an argument for just potting the turn and folding to a raise. Its a pretty close decision. If they were tricky opponents they might smell the smaller bet as weakness and semi-bluff you off. I think for situatoins just like these its important to develop a history of betting less than the pot or even check/raising the nuts. If you only bet the pot with the goods until the river you can get read pretty well.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, I like your bet size as is. A spade draw or unmade straight draw may still call (but may muck to a bigger bet). If you are called in one or two places, a smaller bet gives you more room on the river to maneuver.

If you are flat called in both places to a river blank you have enough behind to make a block/value bet on the river and fold if they come over the top. If your read is that one of them has a weak straight (based on your knowledge of the opponents) and can make a fold you can pot the river.

If you are called in both places to a double scare card (broadway spade) its an easy check/fold I believe.

If you are called in one place to a blank value/block the river or make a read above against a possible weak straight. If you are called in one place to a non-broadway spade, value/block bet, to another broadway card I probably just check/muck.

There is an argument for just potting the turn and folding to a raise. Its a pretty close decision. If they were tricky opponents they might smell the smaller bet as weakness and semi-bluff you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds pretty good except I don't think that there is enough behind to block/value the river if called in 2 spots. Pot will be like ~115 with about a $48 effective stack size left. Doesn't seem like a good idea to try and block here and fold to a push.

[ QUOTE ]
I think for situatoins just like these its important to develop a history of betting less than the pot or even check/raising the nuts. If you only bet the pot with the goods until the river you can get read pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

But of course. Unfortuantely this was one of my first splashes in the Stars 100 game and I have no history yet. The 350 hands on Tighty were at the end of my sessions that night (though I was pretty sure his PT numbers would even out to about what they came to). I often bet less then pot with the nuts, (mostly on the turn and river) so my opponents shouldn't be able to pick up anything by my bet sizes and a c/r against a lag on the turn is just too easy sometimes especially in spots where I am the PFR.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1. It is only worth playing on or 1 off the button. Sure the the flop could have come Q53, but in that case, especially at higher limits when there isn't a crowd seeing the flop, you won't get any action from draws or bottom set anyway. QQ needs a suited ace to play a little card with it or two other nearby straight cards. This is known as having a defense. When you flop a set of queens you want some kind of backup, even if only a gutshot or a higher flush draw. This will give you the outs you need to call a pot size bet by someone who makes a straight on the turn. And if by playing good nearby cards you also make a straight, then you have a freeroll and should jam the pot. I even fold KK with those sidecards in that position, because it is not good position and really can't stand a raise.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this was going to be my response.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The key point you all are missing, is that the particular hand in question, QQ42ss should have been folded to begin with in MP1. It is only worth playing on or 1 off the button. Sure the the flop could have come Q53, but in that case, especially at higher limits when there isn't a crowd seeing the flop, you won't get any action from draws or bottom set anyway. QQ needs a suited ace to play a little card with it or two other nearby straight cards. This is known as having a defense. When you flop a set of queens you want some kind of backup, even if only a gutshot or a higher flush draw. This will give you the outs you need to call a pot size bet by someone who makes a straight on the turn. And if by playing good nearby cards you also make a straight, then you have a freeroll and should jam the pot. I even fold KK with those sidecards in that position, because it is not good position and really can't stand a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's tight. I have to disagree since I play AA-QQ from all positions and will call any raise (but not a reraise). IMHO, these big pairs are the major moneymakers. My stats over 27,000 hands:

Hand Win% PTBB/hand Times played BB earned
Aces 38% 1.46 730 2130
Kings 28% 0.98 680 1332
Queens 23% 0.42 722 606
Jacks 16% 0.55 675 742
Tens 10% 0.24 706 338
Big wraps 37% 1.19 76 180
Medium wraps 19% 0.14 112 32
4-broadways 29% 0.94 71 134

I am shocked how rarely good wraps and 4 broadways are dealt!

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

If the preflop action and effective stack sizes are such that you can get allin on the flop with top set of QQ/KK and junky no redraw sidecards, then that is fine. But if not, and you and an opponent have enough for a full pot size bet on the turn, what are you going to do when the straight card comes? Call the rest of your stack off for 2-1 on your money as a 4-1 dog? Or better yet, fold to an aggressive player behind you who merely represents that straight? Of course you can always just bet in front heedless of what comes if you are first to act to avoid being bluffed out, but if the opponent is a reasonable player that is not wise.

And most hands you play should be able not only to stand at least one raise, but also a second moderate raise that is not more than 20% of your stack or an allin bet by a short stack player from whom you can make no more money if your hand hits when a preflop dog.

Joe, I from your posts you seem to be a tight player capable of folding top set when a draw hits, but why play a hand that lacks additional outs to continue to the river if someone makes a straight on you on the flop (even as little as a gutshot)? And what are you going to do when you flop bottom 2 against a preflop raiser marked with aces? Shove with 4s up and hope he doesn't hit his ace or counterfeit you or get trapped for your stack by a 3rd player with a set or good wrap? And if you are going to play QQ with junky sidecards then why leave out a similar JJ hand?

The preflop standard of 4 cards working together, and the principle that 2 holdem hands don't make a good omaha hand are not just valid but critical in a game where your stack is potentially on the line in any hand you choose to play.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Bluff,

I think you are generally right about this. At some tables where the payers have shown a propensity to make bad fishy calls however I think its playable from MP. But I think 90% of the time here its a muck preflop.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I think preflop is fine as long as you can fold top set.

I like to mix in some big check raises on the flop here. I'd like to bring down the hammer before I find myself trying to make very player dependent type reads on the turn and river online vs. a relative unknown.

I think leading out on the turn is best although just for style reasons I'd probably make it atleast 30 to go.

As played I think folding on the turn is OK given your read.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Thanks for the detailed response, Bluff. I greatly appreciate the points you are making.

Fact is, everything you say valid, and I have run into all of those situations. But I think that this where the post-flop skill makes a difference. Knowing how to deal with tricky situations is what separates the good players from the mediocre ones.

I could tell you what I would do in every one of those situations you mentioned, but that would be revealing too much about my game. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] However, I can assure you, I am prepared to deal with every one of them.

True, I am a tight player, and that does make me prone to being bluffed out of some small and medium pots by aggressive players occasionally. However, the many small pots I win with semibluffs, and the huge pots I win vs. aggressive players when the semibluff gets there more than compensates.

Playing top set in an unraised pot with a coordinated board, no matter what your position, is always a tricky situation. But the statistics show that top sets are the biggest money winners in Omaha.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Playing very coordinated hands certainly helps, but the only two sidecards that are really helping you here are AK. If he'd played QQJT preflop and someone else has the straight, he would be in worse shape then you are right now.

Playing a raggy big pair at an aggressive tabl, even OOP, is a winning play. Certainly it is nice to have ways of winning other than flopping a set, but playing a one way hand to hit a flop or fold is certainly not as terrible as you make it out to be.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I'm going to make 1 additional comment on these types of hands. Look at the situations that can arise when you play them:

1) You see the flop miss and fold, which will happen most of the time. Same as when there is a 2nd very large raise and you have to fold. But all these misses add up, and are the same as a limit leak of playing too many hands even if you don't go too far with them.

2) In a small pot without any big draws you bet the pot and win a small pot.

3) A big pot gets played when you flop top set and the draw gets there on the turn, and you have to fold as a money dog. More money lost. (Plus beware the temptation offered by an expert player who now bets only slightly above 1/2 the pot offering you still insufficient odds to call but not as bad as if he had bet the full pot.)

4) A big pot gets played on a KQx board and you lose to top set, or rarely to quads to a player who had a lower set and a draw on the flop. More money lost if you can't read really well and the stack sizes allow you to get away from the hand.

5) A big pot gets played and you bust middle set or a player who is overaggressive with a wrap and wants to get allin on the flop as a dog and you win. The best situation of course.

6) A big pot gets played and you get allin on the turn and the draw gets there on the river and busts you. Money lost. Happens a mathematically determined number of times.


But the kicker to all this, is that by playing better sidecards, you are the one who might pick up a quality draw and be able to win a big pot and bust someone else with a draw that gets there. Although rare, you sometimes will flop a straight and flush draw and make an overset on someone and win a big pot that way as well.

So you have to be able to win enough with a junky QQ/KK hand to make up for all the times you don't and lose. And you have to be able to do it out of position where you suffer the worst possibility of being bluffed by a player behind you with a weak draw who bluffs the river when a different draw gets there. And you never have a freeroll situation where you both make the straight together and you bust him when you fill the river after getting allin on the turn, where he would have folded to a board pair if mony was left to bet.

So my final advice is to consider all these things and balance not just how much you win with those marginal hands but also how much you lose. I predict you will find such hands are marginal winners at best and add significantly to your variance.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Just curious, what is your VP$IP?

As for your comments:

[ QUOTE ]
1) You see the flop miss and fold, which will happen most of the time. Same as when there is a 2nd very large raise and you have to fold. But all these misses add up, and are the same as a limit leak of playing too many hands even if you don't go too far with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh well. A lot of your superstrong preflop hands are going to be folded on the flop as well, in and out of position.

[ QUOTE ]
2) In a small pot without any big draws you bet the pot and win a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is a problem because?

[ QUOTE ]
3) A big pot gets played when you flop top set and the draw gets there on the turn, and you have to fold as a money dog. More money lost. (Plus beware the temptation offered by an expert player who now bets only slightly above 1/2 the pot offering you still insufficient odds to call but not as bad as if he had bet the full pot.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You either bet and got called on the flop, or let an aggressive player with position bet out and you checkraised. In both cases, you put the money in with a positive expectation and are faced with a situation where you will either have to fold with no immediate or implied odds or commit more money in a second +EV situation when you do have immediate or implied odds. Anytime I can put in money and get a +EV return I am happy to do so.

[ QUOTE ]
4) A big pot gets played on a KQx board and you lose to top set, or rarely to quads to a player who had a lower set and a draw on the flop. More money lost if you can't read really well and the stack sizes allow you to get away from the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is where postflop skills come in. If you can't fold middle set, just play AA. If you are really worried about being in a situation where you have an overset and get drawn out by quads, I don't know what to say. Generally, top or middle set against a lower set with a medium draw is at least a 60/40 favorite on the flop. Why would you not want to put as much money in as possible here?

[ QUOTE ]
5) A big pot gets played and you bust middle set or a player who is overaggressive with a wrap and wants to get allin on the flop as a dog and you win. The best situation of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah.

[ QUOTE ]
6) A big pot gets played and you get allin on the turn and the draw gets there on the river and busts you. Money lost. Happens a mathematically determined number of times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh well. A 'mathematically determined number of times' the draw won't even be out there and you will be getting people to overcommit with weakish draws.

[ QUOTE ]
But the kicker to all this, is that by playing better sidecards, you are the one who might pick up a quality draw and be able to win a big pot and bust someone else with a draw that gets there. Although rare, you sometimes will flop a straight and flush draw and make an overset on someone and win a big pot that way as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, ideally I would like to have the best sidecards possible in any given top or middle set situation so at the very least I am blocking some of the draws that are out there against me. Good sidecards certainly give you other flop options as well, but consider a hand where you have played something like QQTKss. The flop comes 9J3 rainbow, you call a PSB from the PFR, and the turn is a 9. By your logic, it would be better to have QQ24 there since you would have folded the flop and lost less money to a player with 9Jxx or JJxx. You need to remember that PLO is all about equity, not about having the best hand hold up.

[ QUOTE ]

So you have to be able to win enough with a junky QQ/KK hand to make up for all the times you don't and lose.[ QUOTE ]


Well, that is a given, and I think most of the people that are justifying playing these hands OOP are intelligent enought to know whether or not they are leaking money this way. I know I'm not, and in fact, big pair hands, regardless of sidecards, are my second money winner after AAxx, especially in aggro games.

[ QUOTE ]
And you have to be able to do it out of position where you suffer the worst possibility of being bluffed by a player behind you with a weak draw who bluffs the river when a different draw gets there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is going to be the case with every hand you play OOP unless you have the nuts every time. It simply requires good post flop play.

[ QUOTE ]
And you never have a freeroll situation where you both make the straight together and you bust him when you fill the river after getting allin on the turn, where he would have folded to a board pair if mony was left to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, not never. If you are playing any KK or QQxx in EP, then you are certainly also playing when you have great sidecards, but again, those situations are very rare. When was the last time you had a huge freeroll that got there? I play about 1500 - 2000 hands a day and it typically happens once every 4000 hands or so.

[ QUOTE ]
So my final advice is to consider all these things and balance not just how much you win with those marginal hands but also how much you lose. I predict you will find such hands are marginal winners at best and add significantly to your variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance is not a bad thing and if you are properly bankrolled for the level you are playing, you should not be afraid of it. If your opponents know you only continue past the flop with a absolute monster of a hand, you will also get labelled as a nut peddler and win smaller pots when you do win and get bluffed out of a lot of bigger ones.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Bluff is right about this hand. QQ24ss is really a dominated hand in lots of ways. Everything you can make out of it has second best hand possibilities - your flush, your straight potential, your set potential - all have real trouble ahead of them in a multiway situation.

There are conditions where this is playable. For instance, heads up against a preflop raiser who you think has AA I like it cause its an easy "no set no bet" hand. But generally no.

If you just had a little something more to it...if it were double suited, or had another broadway with it, it would be much more playable. But with just a 2 and a 4 its kinda trashy.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Tilt/Bluff,

You both have described many difficult and marginal postflop situations. I don't think anybody disagrees that those situations are what arise when you TTxx-AAxx irrespective of side cards and position when the preflop action isn't too heavy.

But, what I, and others disagree about, is that they are money losers. What do you say to people who have tens of thousands of hands in a PTO database and are turning a profit playing dry big pairs for set value? Is it supposed to be discouraging that they are "only" marginal winners? +EV is +EV. Who cares if you are building non-nut hands.

I win way more with these hands than I do with coordinated runs and so forth. They are winning hands across many limits and against many different types of opponents. Is that unpersuasive for some reason?

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tilt/Bluff,

But, what I, and others disagree about, is that they are money losers. What do you say to people who have tens of thousands of hands in a PTO database and are turning a profit playing dry big pairs for set value? Is it supposed to be discouraging that they are "only" marginal winners? +EV is +EV. Who cares if you are building non-nut hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

I say that you are a very competent player, who knows your opponents and can make good laydowns. I don't think everyone should be playing these hands.

I wouldn't argue that a hand like this can't make money. I just think for most players that it won't. And I don't think it should be on anyone's autoplay list. As I said before, its a very playable hand against the right opponents/conditions. Its a big loser I am sure against some opponents.

And I think you are making my statement too general about "big pairs". I don't like QQ24 from MP. I like it OTB. I like QQ76 in MP much more. I like KK24 in MP, I like JJT2. But this specific "big pair" has unique issues. How does QQ24 specifically fare in your PTO db from MP?

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Good question. When I get home I'll parse my DB down. The problem with specific hands is that you get them so rarely even over big samples and the big pot factor is going to skew results. But, I can make some ranges based on "dryness" and we'll talk numbers.

I do think educating people about and giving advice that is motivated by two things (1) reducing variance (2) avoiding marginal/difficult situations prolly OK but people should know that they are leaving some dough on the table and when they get the stomach for it they should start thinking about how to go after it. The stuff adds up.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Rempel,

Do we really need to parse a post and respond so that it is 2 screens high like in the politics forum? Regarding your question as to VPIP, I don't use poker tracker, so I have no way of knowing. However I certainly don't sit there waiting for aces and I raise preflop with a range of hands that others wouldn't. Nonetheless, I do adhere to the principle of 4 cards working together.

While it is true that a good player will be able to get out of potential trap situations postflop, it will still be a mistake for the vast majority of players to play that hand routinely. And avoiding playing lots of weak hands avoids getting into more postflop situations where you might make a mistake for your entire stack.

You must be the star pupil of one of our well-known posters here since you are expounding on his preflop starting hand decisions and position are so unimportant philosophy. He should be so proud.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I'm having major problems with PTO. In fact, it's almost totally inoperable.

TheRempel was kind enough to parse down his dry QQxx stats for our viewing pleasure. I believe this from 25plo up to 1/2 so the relevant stat is bb/hand and avg/hand as opposed to net. Obviously these are very small samples for these hands. You'll notice the vpip on them is 90%ish so position is being given no defference whatsoever.

I think my stats look very similar. Once I get the pokertracker people to figure out what the heck is going on I'll post mine if the thread hasn't died.

Once again, these are TheRempel's:

http://img378.imageshack.us/img378/3145/qq240ol.jpg

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Playing with worse players as is common at lower levels gives you a cushion for playing bad hands or playing bad but not worse than average for those tables (i.e. they never lay down middle/bottom set and always call with weak draws). I know some high stakes players who routinely play and even raise with hands like those, but they play exceedingly well post-flop. If you play that well post-flop, then keep doing what you're doing as long as it works.

Nonetheless, if your better opponents are playing 4 cards working together and you are not, then you are effectively playing handicapped in the game.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Well this was a treat. Thought this thread was dead and all of a sudden it blew up. Not too often we get that in this forum. Lots of good stuff in here.

Myself, I have a lot less experience in this game then all of you at this point. I am getting pretty comfortable with this game now and feel that in a lot of the games I am playing against mostly weak players that I should be able to turn out a profit with this hand. There are certainly times I would fold this PF, but in most games I will call with it more then I will fold it. I have had a roll for the 100 game since I started playing PLO, however while I was getting used to the game I put a lot of time in the kiddie pool just getting a feel. So I am not overly concerned about the variance if I can turn a profit in the long run. I will remember to consider holding off on these type of hands when taking a shot at a higher limit in the future. In my limited experience in the Stars and Party 100 games I feel these hands will often be playable.

I can't really say if I am playing these well yet as my sample size is way to small. I've only got about 13-15,000 hans so far (With a full time job and girlfriend and other things it is hard to get tons of hands in) and on my laptop here at work with about 6,000 hands I only got QQrag 41 times which shows how much bigger the Rempels sample size must be. I was slightly good with KKrag and slightly down with QQrag (because of the hand posted here). Definetly something to keep an eye on as I get more hands in.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Heres what i think about the hand:
Preflop:
I would probably fold this hand UTG+1 7handed, but lets assume u call.
MP+1 calls (kindof surprising), Button Pots (not a surprise), fold, fold. So you think that MP+1 has a relatively decent hand and button hand ranges is high. If you're going to continue with this hand, throw in a re-pot. This will almost always get MP+1 to fold and possibly have button to fold (but probably not). Now you are only dealing with 1 person in ur position, you have more money in the pot and u have taken the lead.
Post-flop:
Scenario A: You just called preflop
This is a money flop for you, but I check it and hope for a c/r. This hand can get ugly real quick, so you want to either pot a ton of money in the pot or keep it small. By just betting out u build the pot, but not large enough, you then become essentially obligated to lead out on the turn and ur putting a lot of money in by the turn (essentially ur putting them all in) and u will have no idea where u r. If you dont get the c/r on the flop, you can make a smallish bet out on the turn (feeler bet to see where u r) or check it again. I know this seems like a weak/tight way to play it, but I really dont like betting out into this flop because it doesnt give u any information. (i dont know if chances of them folding though-- when MP calls u have to be worried and then button might call out of pot odds or something like that ... u just have no idea other than u can be in some real trouble on the turn)
Scenario B: You re-raised preflop
If the button calls u, basically saying AA,KK, JJ or something to that extent or even some low cards, you can pot the flop and not really be worried. He might fold or think that u r bluffing and repot or something like that. When the turn comes u can essentially put him all in and if he hit the straight u have redraws for the boat, but there is a good chance that he has 2pair or an overpair or 2pair+FD or FD+SD or something like that. I just think that the passive nature PF causes a lot of trouble post flop

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

With the permission of TheRempel, im curious as to how the big hands played out with these hands and if i could get some handhistories. I was just wondering where he made the big money. The thing that needs to be looked @ isnt what the VP$IP % is (being 90% doesnt matter), but where the big hands came from. If he plays the hands from UTG or UTG+1 but has only won/lost $4 doing that then it doesnt matter, if he won his big pots from LP. I am also curious as to how aggressive he played them from EP and LP.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

My stats for QQxx in MP (2-4 off the button)
Times 252
Win % 21.83
Net 317.8
Av/hand 1.26
PTBB/hand 0.63

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I'm too busy to go through and sort out pokertracker at the moment, but my winrate is actually about even in early and LP with these hands, mostly because it's generally flop a set or fold regardless of position, especially with a raggy big pair.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

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Playing with worse players as is common at lower levels gives you a cushion for playing bad hands or playing bad but not worse than average for those tables (i.e. they never lay down middle/bottom set and always call with weak draws). I know some high stakes players who routinely play and even raise with hands like those, but they play exceedingly well post-flop. If you play that well post-flop, then keep doing what you're doing as long as it works.


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Sorry, what high level games are you playing? And why would you be playing with better players? It's almost a certainty given how scared you are of putting money in post flop without the nuts or a twenty way double-triple nut draw, but jesus christ man, I and others are making money with these hands in EP, MP and LP. We have the stats to back it up.

In a game where you aren't often more than 60% to win post flop every little extra bet you can gain from these kinds of hands counts.

If I'm playing in a game where I know for certain my opponents are playing much 'better' starting hands than me on average and are passive enough to fold post flop without strong hands or strong draws, I am going to fold almost every hand in the first four seats and raise almost every hand in the last three, but I would probably find a better game first. If you think that all or even most of the players in any given higher level game play really strong coordinated hands and play well post flop you are delusional or you need to find a new site to play on / sweat games you are afraid to play in.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

This is a surprisingly interesting thread.

I think Bluff, in his usual bluff manner, is right. He has given the caveat that play the rag QQ if you play much better postflop or foes are weak after all.

He is also right about the bigger games. The hand in question, not some abstract 150-200 hand sample, is far more interesting. Look at the dilema the hero has, and he is facing comparatively smaller stacks. If everyone was really stacked he would be in a right mess. And if he bet that amount at me on the turn then I would call or raise with a wide range of hands, some of which he would be beating. The point is, he is now in a tough decision point...and he doesnt know what to do. QED.

FWIW I probably check and try and get a price. But I also check the nuts there a bit too, especially on Party. And I also play high rag pairs OOP too, in middle limit at least.

gl

dd

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I will definitely concede that he is right on big raggy pairs being marginal hands, especially OOP. Most hands excluding AA are fairly marginal.

I don't understand why everyone is so against having to make tough decisions. Every one of these decision you are forced to make will add a weapon to your arsenal that you can use later on against that same opponent and others.

As for the play of the particular hand in question, I think I would generally go for a cr on the flop as the OP said he might do, since there is no big wrap draw here, the best possible straight draw would be something like KT9x. Even a tight player post flop is likely to make some kind of bet here with one of those hands.

If the PFR bets only 1/2 pot, he will be able to make it $25 to go, forcing his opponents to commit a healthy portion of their stack to see one card. If they both call then you can likely check the turn if they are decent since that ten will have hit their range. If one calls a check might be in order if he is likely to check behind with a straight, or a smallish blocking bet if they like to make the mistake of giving 'free' cards.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

Rempel,

I don't mind making tough decisions at all because I am confident in my ability to make good ones. However the more such situations you put yourself in, the more likely it is to decide wrong. A good example of this is in cases where you flop a set but are actually a dog to an extremely strong draw held by one player, or to the field. Playing better sidecards gives you greater equity by allowing you to have enough outs to redraw when a bad turn card comes, and also by lessening a drawing hand's equity because you are holding some of its needed outs. Plus the positional aspect of this particular hand is important. The weaker your starting hand, the better position you need to play it, because there will be so many bad cards that could come, and position often allows you to check behind and avoid being bluffed off the best hand or being value bet thin by a non-nut hand that beats you where you might be tempted to call.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I bumped this thread to let you all know if you haven't already seen it, that Rolf has an article in the current issue of Cardplayer discussing playing rag KK hands, similar to the QQ one discussed here.

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

I like Rolf's article as it will definitely affect how I look at raggedy big pairs in the future.

However, one thing that I think was missed in the discussion of the original post was that Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is not completely ragged. You have a suited Queen as backup/blockers and the 4-2 can flop the nut str8 with flush redraw, or can act as blockers with a flop like Q53 vs somebody with a low wrap like A642.

This hand is very much like the Ks Kh 8s 6d hand Rolf talks about in his article, "What to look for in starting hands Part II: Pot Limit Omaha".

[ QUOTE ]
... this hand is playable in any position and for any reasonable amount- even though it's not necessarily good enough to reraise with.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)
 

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Nonetheless, if your better opponents are playing 4 cards working together and you are not, then you are effectively playing handicapped in the game.

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I'm just a confused beginner and dabbler in the higher limit PLO games, but my impression so far is that the way to big success is in being able to steal a lot and provoke people to play back at you when you do have a hand. If you're folding 80% of your hands pf and then only continuing when you hit the flop and have a redraw, you will never get any action on the 1 out 300 hands you actually do want to show down. QQxx seems to me like bread and butter in juicy lag 5-10 games. As long as you hvae the nerve to steal enough and build up a crazy image (which I don't for that much money).

but this is all speculation--I definitely don't hvae a track record in 5-10 or feel confident that I can own it.