I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Without reads I would consider this bluff pretty standard. His most likely hands are a draw or weak two pair. An overpair has any made hand he has crushed, and he can't call with a draw. Of course sometimes he'll show you the nuts.

Raising to $70 and then shutting down may be a less expensive way to get the same result.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP ($126.43)
CO ($113.25)
Hero ($207.90)
SB ($135.70)
BB ($18.24)
UTG ($373.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $13</font>, SB (poster) calls $12, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $11, MP folds, CO calls $11.

Flop: ($56) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $8</font>, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero calls $194.90 (All-In)..

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

or you could fold..

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

There's a great Ray Zee post somewhere in the archives where he talks about bet sizing and betting the smallest amount that will make them fold when you want them to fold and the largest amount they will call when you want them to call.

Anyway, why push when raising to $45-$50 has the exact same effect and is hella cheaper? If you had clubs or something that had some chance of winning the hand if called, pushing might be okay but you don't need to get called very often for this to be a -EV.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I think most people on theforum would agree that massive overbet type bluffs, are stupid and bad. Sure the bet is weak, but you are losing to every single hand in the game.

every. single. hand.

This seems extremely reckless. The bluff preflop was ok, but with that huge pot and the worst possible hand I'm not so sure you want to being putting all your chips in.

This line always appears to me as weak. What would you have that you would legitimatly play like this? 33? AA? TT? It really makes no sense except for a bluff.

Food for thought.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I don't really care how this worked out, it's a horrible play. You have no hand and no draw...if the guy has any pair above a 6 you are basically drawing dead to running 4's or 5's or a running straight. You know he's got a piece of this board because he led out into the preflop raiser.

If he calls you with an ace high flush draw he's still ahead of you and drawing to improve.....I'd probably call with an ace high flush draw because I know you don't have the boat here because you'd have no reason to play it this way, and I know you didn't raise with a 3....so i've got 2 shots at 13 outs to win if my ace outs are good. If I had something like AQ of clubs i'd have 17 outs........horrible play...it might have worked out, but you bet $200 to win 50...if it doesn't work basically every time it's -EV.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I'm just not crazy about him calling a raise to $45 with a club draw trying to gamble and hit.

If I was going to raise less, it would be to about $65 minimum.

I think we'd agree that this type of bet in these games is rarely a hand that can stand this sort of flop action. When everyone else does me the amazing service of folding, my raise seems almost mandatory.

Why raise a 45 suited (essentially a junk hand) in position if you aren't going to squeeze out every bit of equity in every situation?

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I have no problem with the raise; just the amount. I agree that the raise is mandatory.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Yeah I thought about it after the hand that raising to $70 achieves exactly the same thing, but saves the extra $35-40 when he has a monster.

To respond to some other posts, I'm representing exactly AA/KK which I would absolutely play in this manner on the flop. Surely you guys aren't going to just call this bet on the flop with an overpair?

Any decent raise that kills his odds to draw to a flush puts over 1/2 his stack in the pot, so might as well put him on all-in. I'd also play a hand with a 3 in it in this manner. Just go ahead and get all-in and see if he calls. With the nut full I'd probably just call and let him catch a flush or something.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not crazy about him calling a raise to $45 with a club draw trying to gamble and hit.

If I was going to raise less, it would be to about $65 minimum.

I think we'd agree that this type of bet in these games is rarely a hand that can stand this sort of flop action. When everyone else does me the amazing service of folding, my raise seems almost mandatory.

Why raise a 45 suited (essentially a junk hand) in position if you aren't going to squeeze out every bit of equity in every situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

umm, you should be crazy about him gambling with incorrect odds for the flush.

I agree that if you are planning on raising in position then you probably have to bet almost any flop (maybe not a As Ks Qs) But your over bet is ridiculous and terrible.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not crazy about him calling a raise to $45 with a club draw trying to gamble and hit.

If I was going to raise less, it would be to about $65 minimum.

I think we'd agree that this type of bet in these games is rarely a hand that can stand this sort of flop action. When everyone else does me the amazing service of folding, my raise seems almost mandatory.

Why raise a 45 suited (essentially a junk hand) in position if you aren't going to squeeze out every bit of equity in every situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

umm, you should be crazy about him gambling with incorrect odds for the flush.

I agree that if you are planning on raising in position then you probably have to bet almost any flop (maybe not a As Ks Qs) But your over bet is ridiculous and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have issue with the entire premise of a bluff here, and not the fact that I made a greater than pot-sized raise. As I've stated 3 times (and also in the original post), raising to $70 is certainly superior than simply pushing. However the bluff itself should be standard.

Whether you agree or disagree with the play, some of the analysis here is shockingly bad.

It's a bad play because I have the worst hand possible? One of the necessary elements of a pure bluff is to have a terrible hand. How can that be a reason for a bluff to be wrong?

You guys would call here with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Despite having entirely incorrect odds to do so? What is going on here?

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

umm you just reiterated my post.

Bluff = mandatory.
Over bet = bad, stupid, and a poor bluff.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Can you please show me where you ever said that the bluff was mandatory?

I mean PRIOR to Ghazban saying so.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that if you are planning on raising in position then you probably have to bet almost any flop (maybe not a As Ks Qs) But your over bet is ridiculous and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem with the raise; just the amount. I agree that the raise is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

This quote, and this entire hand, makes me want to learn NL more.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I will also say that the one benefit of going ahead and pushing all-in on a stone bluff is being able to advertise it.

Many of us here make overbet pushes for value but NEVER (as in absolute never ever ever) overbet pushes on bluffs. This is for good reason. Our opponents on Party certainly don't like to go to bed wondering, and those overbets for value work out great. If you are playing someone that is observant of your game at all though, you will cease to get action in these situations.

In a situation like this where the overbet bluff is only $50-60 extra in an already big pot, it may be worth it to go ahead and overbet it and show (a la Spirit Rock). It's rare and shocking to see this sort of play at a table. And people certainly do take notice. The certainly don't want to be the next guy that folds and shown 5 high.

If other players at the table are deep with you, they may not fold any piece of the board on the flop, and you can make some pretty sick value overbets with an overpair, TPTK, etc.

I had a confrontation with the same villain later on in the evening.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($125.15)
Button ($189.55)
Hero ($234.10)
BB ($93.60)
UTG ($14.02)
MP ($301.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $7</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($16) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero calls $226.10 (All-In), BB calls $85.60 (All-In).

Turn: ($327.70) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($327.70) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $327.70

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Qs (flush, queen high).
BB has Ad Js (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins $327.70. </font>

This obviously isn't the best example because he only had half a buy-in. But had I for example raised an AK at this table and had the flop come A74 rainbow. I would have just gone ahead and stuck it all in on the flop for $200. People just aren't going to fold AJ there.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

whats your party name? I can't wait to stack you.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
whats your party name? I can't wait to stack you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Send me a PM. I'll be happy to play you heads up on a private table. Please don't misinterpret this as a personal challenge, but if you think it is a +EV spot for you then let's do it. I can't imagine I'd be taking the worst of it.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

I am not making this play against an unknown. I would need something to tell me villain is capable of laying a hand down before I bluff my stack off with 5 high. Your play looks like a bluff, maybe a club draw…If you play your monsters like this too, I see nothing wrong with it, but I would want to make sure I have some fold equity before I proceed.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am not making this play against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's the part that I don't like. There are just way too many fish out there who will call this with a draw, A high, a naked 3, etc.

You never know when villain is going to turn out to be a tricky LAG with T3. His weak flop bet just might have been a deliberate attempt to induce just this type of raise.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

this point may have merit, but you also lose your stack when you donk it away aginst a set, two pair or any number of better hands. To me this seems to be a very limited play which may work against one or two opponents, however a good player at the table will see thorugh this and may be able to get into a situation to easily stack you.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am not making this play against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's the part that I don't like. There are just way too many fish out there who will call this with a draw, A high, a naked 3, etc.

You never know when villain is going to turn out to be a tricky LAG with T3. His weak flop bet just might have been a deliberate attempt to induce just this type of raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, against an unknown it is standard. The $8 flop lead in these games USUALLY means I have a weak a two pair, I want to put a bet out there and see what happens. If I was playing a KNOWN quantity, such as someone that I know to be a strong, tricky player, I would just muck.

[ QUOTE ]
this point may have merit, but you also lose your stack when you donk it away aginst a set, two pair or any number of better hands. To me this seems to be a very limited play which may work against one or two opponents, however a good player at the table will see thorugh this and may be able to get into a situation to easily stack you.

[/ QUOTE ]

In no limit I'm trying to win monster pots. I think that the extra 25BB that I'm putting unnecessarily at risk can EASILY be made up for by winning a 200BB+ pot off one of the other players in the game.

Even if they suspect that I'm setting them up for a big value bet, they are still almost powerless against it. How could anyone fold AQ on a Qxx board against me?

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are just way too many fish out there who will call this with a draw, A high, a naked 3, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a naked three, I am beating you to the pot. If you have a ten or better 3, NH.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]

You guys would call here with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Despite having entirely incorrect odds to do so? What is going on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1330661
pokenum -h kd kh - ac 4c -- tc 3c 3s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s Tc 3c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 586 59.19 404 40.81 0 0.00 0.592
Ac 4c 404 40.81 586 59.19 0 0.00 0.408


There is $64 in the pot before your all in. Villain has about 110 left or so. You've gone all in for 194.

He's got to call 110 to win win 170. Which means it is incorrect to fold here with Ac 4c if you turned up your kings and looked at him with them.

Not to mention this is party poker and idiots chase on here.....you are probably likely to get called by something like Kc 4c just as easily...point is that any hand that calls you here is ahead of you, even 7 2 offsuit, and your bet looks EXACTLY like what it is. If you'd play AA this way you are going to get stacked making some stupid looking plays.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Playing AA this way is stupid? Are you serious?

Should I raise to $45 and fold to a push? Just call the $8 bet in the $50+ pot?

Your point about his odds with Ac 4c are quite valid. It's a razor thin call. If I can have a pure bluff even 5% of the time though you are correct, he should call.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem with the raise; just the amount. I agree that the raise is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]
You do? It violates my no bluff agreement, so I think it is definitely NOT mandatory. If I had, say, a pair, or ace high, then it wouldn't violate my no bluff agreement since I could have good faith belief that my hand was best. With 4 high or whatever he has (I forget), I cannot bluff here.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem with the raise; just the amount. I agree that the raise is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]
You do? It violates my no bluff agreement, so I think it is definitely NOT mandatory. If I had, say, a pair, or ace high, then it wouldn't violate my no bluff agreement since I could have good faith belief that my hand was best. With 4 high or whatever he has (I forget), I cannot bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]
So are you folding? I raise just about any two here against most players because they are either trying to price in their club draw or they are trying to see if their puny pocket pair is good because I missed with AK. They almost always fold their pairs (patting themselves on the back for their wise "see where I'm at" probe bet) and call with their draws, then check/fold the turn if they miss (again patting themselves on the back for their wise fold and for not chasing (again) a flush on a paired board). Once in a blue moon, somebody will 3bet it and I can do a nice long gee-its-tough-to-fold-aces here pause and fold. There are only a handful of players in this game that make my decision at any point difficult with a hand like this on a board like this.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Yes, I just fold. I don't have the best hand and I don't bluff.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Ghazban, do you ever make an all-in overbet bluff with cards still to come?

I'd say most that post on this board do it absolutely never, which can't be too incorrect. They certainly do make value all-in overbets with cards still to come though. Obviously there is a disconnect there, but they are counting on their opponents being too stupid to realize. Certainly not a bad bet to make.

This is a play that I will make very rarely. Perhaps once every 5k-10k hands. There is nothing quite as shocking as witnessing a player make this play. It is capable of generating tremendous action with your overpair and TPTK hands.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Well, when your opponents will call all bets, your optimal play is to overbet very strong hands and to fold very weak hands. Hmm... I'm sure this has some bearing on SSNL but I can't quite figure out what it is. Did you by any chance see the thread where the dude called my 3-bet on a monochrome flop when I was the preflop raiser with bottom pair no kicker and none of the flush suit after I had played 12/5 over the previous 100+ hands? At 5/10? I really don't think 'getting action' is a good justification for this ridiculous move you pulled.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

In that case I see a contradiction in this forum. When someone makes a seemingly very very aggressive value bet with something like TPGK and gets a call, he is derided and called "lucky" that his opponent was so horrible.

When someone makes a play which gives some level of credit to his opponent's capability of laying down a hand, he is called horrible and insane, and again, "lucky" if the opponent folds.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
Playing AA this way is stupid? Are you serious?

Should I raise to $45 and fold to a push? Just call the $8 bet in the $50+ pot?

Your point about his odds with Ac 4c are quite valid. It's a razor thin call. If I can have a pure bluff even 5% of the time though you are correct, he should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you routinely overbet the pot with AA on every pot you are going to get stacked quite often....people don't call large overbets with anything except good hands....those that can generally beat 1 pair. That is my point. The largest pot I ever won at NL 100 was a guy that open pushed a ragged flop for $500 with AA and I called with $300 with a flopped set of 3's. You didn't open push here, but his bet of $8 into the large pot is either leading a draw, that might call anyway, or a bet to induce a big raise from you, which it did...either one of the hands calls you has you smoked unless he's doing it with 2c 4c or something. People that overplay AA and KK are the reason that set farming works.

The only hands villain can put you on here is AcKc (assuming he doesn't have something similar), JJ-AA I'd think. There is no way you have TT because you'd have to be an idiot to play it this way, and it's unlikely you raised with a 3 in your hand. It comes down to him either deciding to call with a draw, calling you with a 3, or thinking his pocket pair is good...it really just depends on his read of you.

Edit - For what it's worth, if i'm villain in this hand, i'm much more likely to call a push than a raise to $70. One looks like a desperate bluff, one doesn't. Whether I call depends on lots of things, my read of you, whether i've seen you do this before, and what the circumstances of it were, how good i'm running that day....if I'm up 500 and my instincts seem to be dead on that day, I might call if I think you are bluffing, etc. All that factors in, but IMO the large overbet looks like someone that wants to get a fold, not someone that wants action.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

Please show me one post where I say someone got lucky that opponents called an overbet. I guarantee it never happened. I can easily show you several posts where I have made overbets with the nuts, though.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF? When did I say you should be finding a spot to get away from AA? I said that the raise would be fine if you had ace high!

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please show me one post where I say someone got lucky that opponents called an overbet. I guarantee it never happened. I can easily show you several posts where I have made overbets with the nuts, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say you.. I said on this forum.

At these limits it's fine to only overbet with the nuts and never ever ever as a bluff. However, does this imbalance in your game worry you at all? I try to keep my game balanced even if I suspect my opponents may not care, and I may take a ding on my winrate.

I'd like to be playing 10/20 by this time next year.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF? When did I say you should be finding a spot to get away from AA? I said that the raise would be fine if you had ace high!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not talking to you. Talking to above poster.

I have a lazy habit of clicking reply on the latest entry.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

you're leaving yourself out to dry here if he does make the call.. no real backup plan because anything he calls with will leave you dead.

i would need at least one overcard to the 10 to make this move, especially with all the dead money in the pot, he may decide to make this call with something like A10, K10, J10, any 3 for sure.

unless this guy is extremely tight, im not making this move. it seems like you were determined to win this pot from the beginning at all costs... bad thing to find yourself doing. fold and maybe take a break.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're leaving yourself out to dry here if he does make the call.. no real backup plan because anything he calls with will leave you dead.

i would need at least one overcard to the 10 to make this move, especially with all the dead money in the pot, he may decide to make this call with something like A10, K10, J10, any 3 for sure.

unless this guy is extremely tight, im not making this move. it seems like you were determined to win this pot from the beginning at all costs... bad thing to find yourself doing. fold and maybe take a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate the feedback, and I do like to have an out when I bluff.

I disagree with your analysis that I was determined to win the pot from the onset. This is a very rare situation where someone weak leads for 1/5th pot into three opponents, and no one else peels a card off.

This situation is too good for an all-in bluff (and show) to just fold. If there were any strong players at that table that have notes, I will get action from them forever.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that you should be looking for a spot to get away from AA...I never said that. Let me repeat it one time for the cheap seats:

"massively overbetting the pot with 1 pair even AA, is STUPID".

I'm not talking about the bluff now, i'm talking about how i'd play AA on this flop. But if you had AA, nothing calls that you beat, everything that beats you calls...do you get how that works? If you flop two pair on a flop of 762 and the guy that raised preflop reraises you all in, are you calling, YES. If you flop top pair on that same flop and you get raised all in are you folding, YES....you make it impossible for them to make a mistake against you....get it? If you only make a normal sized raise with your aces and all he has is top pair, he *might* call that in case you are bluffing. See how that works. Seriously, if you hope to be playing 10/20 by next year I don't see it happening if you don't have a firm grasp of some fairly basic concepts.

Re: I guess it\'s time to get it all in -- flop bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
every. single. hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes ahead of 24.