College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I am writing a paper for my english class, a persuasive research paper debating whether or not Poker is luck or skill. I believe it to be a combination of both, but I would like your opinions considering you are all much smarter than myself. Could to give me some factors that help prove how poker is more luck or skill based. All help is greatly appreciated. Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Short run = Skill + luck
Long run = Skill

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I completely agree. Could you expand on this however? How can I turn this 2 phrase statement into a 3 page paper?

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I don't know if you'll be able to do that.

Perhaps you could explain the concept of EV, and show how plays with a positive expectation will win money in the long run. Or, include an anecdote about a new player that won a ton of money right away but then donked it off because he had initially just been really lucky.

However, I can't imagine how this will make an interesting paper that isn't incredibly fudgy.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Well I believe I will start the paper explaining poker, and some aspects of it(bluffing, etc). Explain EV, and the long term results for +EV calls, and longterm effects of -EV calls. I will give some examples of how other skills such as bluffing, reading a player, noticing patterns, ability to adjust to different styles of play, etc(aside from just +EV and -EV plays)play a large role in poker. Does this sound like a good start?

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I recommend using no limit hold em as an example. You can talk about numerous situations where a player can get extremely lucky, but still not extract the maximum value from his lucky hand.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I believe that would be the easiest example of luck vs skill I could post. Good call

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

This can honestly be explained in two paragraphs. The first paragraph talks about EV using a coinflip as an example. The second paragraph talks about poker odds and explains how making continually +EV decisions in the long run (i.e. playing a TAG style and using table selection) will lead to profit. Paper done.

Also, what college has 3 page papers and lets you write about poker?

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Xavier University, Freshman Composition with a buffoon of a teacher.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

You could expand it into tourneys (luck playing a bigger factor) vs. cash games (skill bigger factor). Just a thought since it needs to be 3 pages. Honestly I don't see how it wouldn't be at least that long.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

You should discuss variance and show that even in the long run, a player's results are hugely affected by luck.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Don't forget to discuss the role of game selection as a skill.

Two players of equal skill could make significantly different amounts of money, if one chooses games filled with less-skilled opponents than the other.

Other than that, poker is about making correct decisions. But there are so many factors that go into making correct decisions over and over (including your own psychological makeup) that it can get very complicated.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Turning in to a 3 page essay is gonna take alot of imagination, you could go in to details about gambling theory and what exactly is considerd gambling in your introduction, go over things like the long run, short run, expected value, then you can maybe write half a page about luck and certian luck myths, check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy then you can expmain the different aspects of skills, for example, how emtions play a large part of the game and bankroll issues, table selection, how the game is constantly evolving and how your skill can turn in to a handicap if you play too much of a mechanical game where people can guess your cards.

I would broaden your topic from just "luck vs skill" to The essentials to become a good poker player, and just include the luck aspect as a sub-category.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

small stakes hold em has a bit in the front about how poker is gambling. but if done correctly it is gambling w/ an expected winning outcome. im poorly paraphrasing but there should be some material for you to reference.


bwana

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Here's your outline

Introduction: Poker requires skill
-Basic Gambling Concept of EV
-Basic NL rules
-The luck of the hole cards and the skill of knowing which to play and when
-The notion of relative value, the luck of the opponent's cards and the skill of knowing when your top set just got killed by a straight
-The luck of the available seat and the skill of table selection as contrasted with the inability to select tables in a tournament
-The luck of variance and the skill of proper bankroll management.
Conclusion: Over the long run everyone has the same luck and the skill is just a matter of knowing when the odds are in your favor.

If you're a little short, add a couple paragraphs about pot odds.

If you can't get three pages out of that then what the hell are you doing in college?

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
I completely agree. Could you expand on this however? How can I turn this 2 phrase statement into a 3 page paper?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't turn out a 3 page paper on this topic? I think I could make a dissertation.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Wow, thanks alot guys. I am going to start working on the paper now. Ill let you know how it goes.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Someone on 2+2 said that poker is like a coin flip for $100 followed by a chess game for $1. In the short term the luckiest will win but over a year the best player will be ahead.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
You could expand it into tourneys (luck playing a bigger factor) vs. cash games (skill bigger factor). Just a thought since it needs to be 3 pages. Honestly I don't see how it wouldn't be at least that long.

[/ QUOTE ]]

I think tournaments and cash games are both about skill. They are both influenced by random events, but a good knowledge of probabilities gives rise to great profits in both kinds of games.

Is your paper on POKER or TEXAS HOLD'EM? THere is obviously some distinction there. Some posters are treating poker like you have two hole cards - that's hold'em! Top pair, that's community card poker variations. If I were writing the paper, I would discuss odds in 5 card draw. People know that game, and your professor might be better able to understand where you're coming from.

Don't forget to ask yourself who your audience is...

Good Skill
Felipe

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

If you can't think of stuff to say to fill up 3 pages on this topic then you really should find another topic/hobby.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone on 2+2 said that poker is like a coin flip for $100 followed by a chess game for $1. In the short term the luckiest will win but over a year the best player will be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes i've remembered this as well. it was pzhon, of course,
here .

the $10 coinflips even out, but what matters is how you do in the chess games.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone on 2+2 said that poker is like a coin flip for $100 followed by a chess game for $1. In the short term the luckiest will win but over a year the best player will be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes i've remembered this as well. it was pzhon, of course,
here .

the $10 coinflips even out, but what matters is how you do in the chess games.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an awesome analogy.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am writing a paper for my english class, a persuasive research paper debating whether or not Poker is luck or skill. I believe it to be a combination of both, but I would like your opinions considering you are all much smarter than myself. Could to give me some factors that help prove how poker is more luck or skill based. All help is greatly appreciated. Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

F-

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

When I first started playing, I won a lot and I thought poker was about skill. Then I started reading a lot of 2+2 books and losing and I thought poker was about luck. Now I'm starting to win again, and I think it's both a matter of skill and luck, but I couldn't say how much of either.

You may be playing a table that you feel in control of, and a player with a lot of gamble sits down and suddenly he's raising every pot, you're not catching cards and never get a chance to play. You could say he's lucky because he's cathing cards or catching flops, but if everyone else is afraid to call him, then his play is correct and now he's skillful. You could consider yourself unlucky because you're not catching cards, or unlucky because the gambler showed up. Is is luck or skill that leads you to sit at a table with less skillful players, or causes a maniac to sit at your table?

Lots of variables. It seems like you're assuming poker is played one hand at a time. A better approach would be to consider what Sklansky says about how, in no limit, you can learn to be skillful at forcing your opponent to make a mistake by controlling the relationship of the bet:pot. This much is within your control. By taking a few sample hands and made up circumstances and run a hand simulator to determine how often those hands win in those circumstances. If you add that to your anecdotal evidence you'd have a meatier paper.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Xavier University, Freshman Composition with a buffoon of a teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

OH or LA?

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turning in to a 3 page essay is gonna take alot of imagination, you could go in to details about gambling theory and what exactly is considerd gambling in your introduction, go over things like the long run, short run, expected value, then you can maybe write half a page about luck and certian luck myths, check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy then you can expmain the different aspects of skills, for example, how emtions play a large part of the game and bankroll issues, table selection, how the game is constantly evolving and how your skill can turn in to a handicap if you play too much of a mechanical game where people can guess your cards.
I would broaden your topic from just "luck vs skill" to The essentials to become a good poker player, and just include the luck aspect as a sub-category.

[/ QUOTE ]



I'm writing my final year dissertation on Gambler's fallacy (and the "hot-hand fallacy")so you should easily be able to write 3-pages on that... I suggest you search scientific journals (webofscience) for references.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Compare to other gambling. Playing blackjack at optimal strategy the casino will hold an edge, even small at 1.5%. Same for other types of gambling, you never receive true odds (which is still only giving you 50/50 chance). Horse racing, the payouts are based on the amounts bet on each horse. Sports, you need to be good about 53% of the time to beat the juice.

In poker, you only need to be better/make fewer mistakes than your competition to make money long term. You are playing against other people, not the house percentage. You can get unlucky for a period, but over time if you are still getting "unlucky", that means you're not better than your opponents.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

I'm quite sure the simple stats. answer to your question is as follows:

Luck is inversely proportional to the square root of the amount of poker you play. To simply further the more you play the less luck there is. We've all sat down and got our asses handed to us by a table full of fish at some point. And we've all taken successful shots at games we were not capable of beating in the long term. Why? The amount of short-term luck in poker is so great. This is why it's important to not put too much stock in your short-term results.

However over an extended period of time this both of the above outcomes become less and less probable. Ultimately after an infinite amount of poker there would be no luck involved.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]


Luck is inversely proportional to the square root of the amount of poker you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this should be the new sup bro.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

limit poker = extreme luck in short, luck vs skill starts to balance out over extreme long run. More variance than no-limit, and tougher game to win consistently at.

NL poker = less luck in short because of more information recieved in a hand. Varying bet sizes give you this rather than just a black and white "call, raise, fold". Skill out weighs luck faster than limit poker and you will get to long term much faster. Less variance as limit.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Xavier University, Freshman Composition with a buffoon of a teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

OH or LA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Xavier U in LA is not operational at the present time.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

Thesis: Poker is all luck.

Supporting evidence:
* Introduce Phil Hellmuth and mention at least twenty times that he is the greatest no limit hold 'em player ever (it'll be hard to cite references other than his own quotes) and be sure to point out that he has nine World Series bracelets.
* Go through all of his bad beats, being sure to include his reactions and his descriptions of his opponents. Point out that you can't beat donkeys because they always suck out when they put their money in with the worst of it.
* List all of the people you've met in your life who you consider to be donkeys. This provides the evidence that you just can't avoid the donkeys who always suck out.

Conclusion: Poker is just luck and you should always raise and reraise with 77 in a limit hold 'em game.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

On the flip side I can't remember the last time someone sucked my whole stack out of me in one hand of limit hold'em.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

thats why you should play NL, to keep stack loss memory poignant in your head.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Xavier University, Freshman Composition with a buffoon of a teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

OH or LA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Xavier U in LA is not operational at the present time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I guess I should have known that. So, it's OH then. Anyway, to the OP, a Prof who allows you to write on something you're interested in doesn't sound like much of a buffoon to me. Pretty cool actually.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

be sure to reference twoplustwo in your works cited, that would be hilarious

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
be sure to reference twoplustwo in your works cited, that would be hilarious

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, so then his prof could come here, read the forum, get better at poker, AND find out his student called him a buffoon.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
In poker, you only need to be better/make fewer mistakes than your competition to make money long term. You are playing against other people, not the house percentage. You can get unlucky for a period, but over time if you are still getting "unlucky", that means you're not better than your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you play that's "rake free"? Poker's still a house edged game (one that the house has 0 risk in). Poker is just the easiest game to beat the house edge in.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

In a brief run down of this thread I haven't seen my following thoughts---if it has been mentioned, forgive me.

It seems to me that this is a question of not 'how' to beat poker, but WHY poker is beatable.

A comparison to other forms of gambling might help.

Category A) Keno, baccarat, roulette---not beatable.

Category B) Poker, horses, sports betting---beatable.

In category A), the odds are 'set odds' , and no amount of
research or knowledge can help you overcome those odds.


Category B) has 'fluid' or changing odds, influenced by the public or an individual.

A) can never get into +EV territory, while of course, B) can.

Re: College Paper... Poker: Luck or Skill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone on 2+2 said that poker is like a coin flip for $100 followed by a chess game for $1. In the short term the luckiest will win but over a year the best player will be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like this analogy. Realistically, I think the chess game part would be worth more than a dollar, but the hyperbole certainly gets the point across.