Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

The Bar Stool Pundits' record so far: 2-15-1

This week, there is a load of BSP picks. The BSPs are thanking their lucky stars that the books are giving xmas presents early. These lines are TOO EASY!

There's so many this week, I'll just list'em without write ups, in order of BSP support.


Chargers -6
Falcons -2
Steelers -3
Panthers -1
Colts -3.5
Bears -3

Also, the Chiefs would be on there but it looks like the line is down.

Whew! This week is insane. The BSPs are going for broke. They could start to pull even or they could bury themselves beyond all hope of recovery. You know which one *I'm* rootin for, but as usual, good luck to everyone no matter what side you're on. I'll be on.


Jets
Dolphins
Packers
Bucs
Pats
Saints

And Raiders if the line goes back up. I freakin' HATE betting on the Saints....

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Well, the Jets & Packers are my top 2 picks this week. Don't really have a strong opinion on the others, and I'm baffled at how any of them can be BSP's.
Please note that I'm referring to the BSP selections and not your selections as to who the BSP picks are.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

I think the chargers will beat the jets handily, they could be the best team in the AFC.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Seahawks/Cards is another BSP game: 659-215 on Wagerline, 92-8% on sportsbook.com

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chargers will beat the jets handily, they could be the best team in the AFC.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a big Chargers fan, but even I can see that there are other teams better than them in the AFC. Either way, I'm betting on the Jets at home this week, bought a point to go to +7.5 though that might not be such an EV idea. Best result: Chargers win by 7.

I also had Packers on the money line before this, and also had Carolina (oops).

I'll place token wagers on the other teams cuz I'm a believer in the system [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

The Jets/Chargers game is a trap. Flying cross country 3 weeks in a row will have SD zapped. Nobody in their right mind can like the Jets. Without any consideration to outside influences people have to load up on SD. Therefore, if you know what is good for you take the Jets and the points. This one is money in the bank.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chargers will beat the jets handily, they could be the best team in the AFC.

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Can their defense please make a play in the 4th Qtr?
I dunno, the Jets just aren't as bad as people think IMO. They pretty much gave away the Atlanta game with turnovers and were still somewhat in the game late. The only home game they lost was in OT, they're coming off a bye, they seem to match up well with SD, and although Herm isn't a great coach, his teams always play hard for him.
I'm a little shocked that they're getting 6 points.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

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I also had Packers on the money line before this, and also had Carolina (oops).

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I've learned (the hard way) to not make any NFL Picks until I've read natedogg's BSP thread. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

I knew these were BSP picks but I got tired of always picking dogs so I like the Falcons anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

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I've learned (the hard way) to not make any NFL Picks until I've read natedogg's BSP thread. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Some books have reduced juice on Fridays, so that's when I make my picks. It'd be nice to have BSP picks earlier, but I guess Friday nights are when everyone frequents the bars [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Jets/Chargers game is a trap. Flying cross country 3 weeks in a row will have SD zapped. Nobody in their right mind can like the Jets. Without any consideration to outside influences people have to load up on SD. Therefore, if you know what is good for you take the Jets and the points. This one is money in the bank.

[/ QUOTE ]

The chargers flew cross country 3 times before they played the Patriots, Id say that worked out for them.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

As for the match up if theres a weakness in the chargers defense its in a secondary and I dont think the Jets can exploit it. Then on the other side of the ball you got a balanced attack that pretty much everyone has trouble slowing down. Even when the Eagles kept them one sided they still were brutally lucky to win the game. Anyway im not going to rant on like its a lock cause nothings a lock, I just think the chargers are the much better side of the coin.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
As for the match up if theres a weakness in the chargers defense its in a secondary and I dont think the Jets can exploit it. Then on the other side of the ball you got a balanced attack that pretty much everyone has trouble slowing down. ... I just think the chargers are the much better side of the coin.

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I agree. I can't imagine the Jets covering. The Chargers are a clearly superior team. My money is on the Jets.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Ive never felt so sick about a bar stool pundit as i do about betting the Jets this week. That being said, its time to load up on the Jets.
foots

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]


Jets
Dolphins
Packers
Bucs
Pats
Saints
- natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

The BSP look to one sunday to get good. Instead they go broke.
(For entertainment purposes only) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] <font color="white"> I'm feeling the spirit of Scalf </font>
6 team parlay, $10 to win $449.35

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Um, the Chargers were home 2 of 3 weeks before going to New England, and the road game was to Denver (which is hardly cross-country).

Nice try, I guess.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

can anyone point me towards a site that tells you where the public is betting?
ty]
matty

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]


The BSP look to one sunday to get good. Instead they go broke.
(For entertainment purposes only) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] <font color="white"> I'm feeling the spirit of Scalf </font>
6 team parlay, $10 to win $449.35

[/ QUOTE ]

As a noob bettor, I've been asking about the EV of parlays and basically what people have been telling me is that outside of fun bets or correlated parlays, it's not worth it.

This is the textbook "fun bet" that I should place $5 on every week. I wonder how much I would have won if I did that every week.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for the match up if theres a weakness in the chargers defense its in a secondary and I dont think the Jets can exploit it. Then on the other side of the ball you got a balanced attack that pretty much everyone has trouble slowing down. ... I just think the chargers are the much better side of the coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I can't imagine the Jets covering. The Chargers are a clearly superior team. My money is on the Jets.

natedogg

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Same on sports radio today. Chargers are an easy lock, one of the best teams in the AFC, and the Jets are terrible. The Chargers should roll.

Closed my eyes and loaded up on the Jets. I am feeling sick.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

I feel better about taking the Jets than any other play here, except Miami.

New Orleans and Tampa make me sick.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Let me just say that I dont think the Jets are horrible and they should be able to beat most teams at home. But I also think people dont know how good the chargers are. Anyway Id be really surprised if the chargers lost but not surprised if they dont cover, so I only have the game teased myself so they just have to win.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The BSP look to one sunday to get good. Instead they go broke.
(For entertainment purposes only) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] <font color="white"> I'm feeling the spirit of Scalf </font>
6 team parlay, $10 to win $449.35

[/ QUOTE ]

As a noob bettor, I've been asking about the EV of parlays and basically what people have been telling me is that outside of fun bets or correlated parlays, it's not worth it.

This is the textbook "fun bet" that I should place $5 on every week. I wonder how much I would have won if I did that every week.

[/ QUOTE ]
I decided to bet this because I hated the whole board. I was considering a 5 play teaser getting as many 'over the zero' numbers as I could. I just couldn't do it.

Parlays depend on the sport. In hockey, I will parlay large favorites because I don't want to put up the cash. The EV of the parlay depends on the EV of the individual bets. If I like detroit -160 and ottawa -200, and think there is +EV in BOTH lines, then the +EV of the parlay isn't changed much from betting them seperately. What has changed is the variance. I will win less often, but I will lose less when I do lose and win more when I do win. Since they are both favorites, the change in variance is smaller than if they were underdogs. (one of the math wizards can show a proof if they like.)
As for other sports, a lot of books won't give you a true parlay odds for the wager made. For instance a 4 team nfl parlay may pay 10/1. the true parlay odds are 12/1. On a two teamer the payoff is 2.6/1 with the true odds being 2.65/1. As you can see, any +EV on the individual teams is going straight down the drain.

I have a raging headache, so some basic math may be off a little. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I may have screwed this up for everyone
 

I took 4 BSPs, only one of my picks for real bets. So far, Jets and Bucs aren't looking too good.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Its looking good for the BSP. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Had to get off the BSP train this week....
 

1: Too many BSP's this week.
2: Some have injury implications.
3: They're spread out all the way to MNF.
4: I'm a big, fat pussy.

Truth is, I'm sure they'll at LEAST push. I just can't do it this week. Damn.

2-3 this week, needing the Pats to cover
 

Still, the worst week for the anti-BSPs this year. Could the tide be turning? Have the BSPs finally figured things out?
Stay tuned for our next episode....

Re: 2-3 this week, needing the Pats to cover
 

[ QUOTE ]
Still, the worst week for the anti-BSPs this year. Could the tide be turning? Have the BSPs finally figured things out?
Stay tuned for our next episode....

[/ QUOTE ]

No, kyro finally put real money down on the side of the anti-BSPs for the first time ever. If there was a prop bet available with "kyro screws over the anti-BSPs," I would have thrown money on that to hedge.