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-   -   Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=371170)

psyduck 11-03-2005 04:31 PM

Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
With everything that happened to him at the WSOP and how his cash games are going (http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...amp;ucat=&) I wonder how he manages to remain tilt-free.

Seriously, being stuck a quarter of a million dollars after playing as well as possible = [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

judgesmails 11-03-2005 04:55 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, being stuck a quarter of a million dollars after playing as well as possible

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not much in that game. In that blog entry he said most people bought in for $100K. So he lost 2.5 buy-ins in a no-limit game while getting his money in as a favorite. Happens all the time. He could continue to play well and lose another 20 buy-ins.

cold_cash 11-03-2005 05:03 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
So when and where is this game going to be on TV?

dibbs 11-03-2005 05:40 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
Maybe he was just running REALLY well last year.

Kevmath 11-03-2005 06:43 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
So when and where is this game going to be on TV?

[/ QUOTE ]

GSN mid-January.

Brad22 11-03-2005 06:45 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he was just running REALLY well last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

He won Cardplayer's Player of the year award and the similiar award for the WSOP.

Skilled player w/o a doubt, but he was certainly on a good run of cards.

KneeCo 11-03-2005 06:51 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
So he lost 2.5 buy-ins in a no-limit game while getting his money in as a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Big Game is mixed games most of which are limit, when they play NL there is a cap.

I think DN's losses aren't that big in that game, also I think most of us know what it's like to move to a new limit/game, there's an initiation period before you hit your comfort zone.

I do think it's exceptionally cool that he's posting all this in his blog.

P.S.
When I read the title of this thread I thought you were talking about two players and you had crappy grammar.

chucksim 11-03-2005 07:34 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]


The Big Game is mixed games most of which are limit, when they play NL there is a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this one they are taping for TV is just NLHE.

tomtemor 11-03-2005 07:39 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The Big Game is mixed games most of which are limit, when they play NL there is a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this one they are taping for TV is just NLHE.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what Daniel wrote in the blog.

illegit 11-03-2005 07:39 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
Maybe this is better discussed in one of the strategy forums, but I don't really like Barry's call of daniel's check-raise all-in with the AcJx on the all club flop. He's getting 1.38-1, and is probably at LEAST a 2-1 dog against daniels range here. Lay it down barry.

Sykes 11-03-2005 07:49 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
With everything that happened to him at the WSOP and how his cash games are going (http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...amp;ucat=&) I wonder how he manages to remain tilt-free.

Seriously, being stuck a quarter of a million dollars after playing as well as possible = [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this quote

".... I made it $2600 with the K-9 of clubs. Barry made it $10,000 behind me as he likes to do before the flop with weakish hands.... Barry... sent his money to the center with the Ac Jd"

So Short handed.. AJo is a weakish hand?

Although I think Barry's call is pretty bad. There is 30ish thousand in the middle before Daniel makes it 110 all-in. So 110 to call to win 140

110:140

Needs about 47% equity to call here, and after running the numbers, putting Daniel on a wide range of hands.. (77+/22-33+/Made flush)

Barry only has about a 40% equity against this hand range.

illegit 11-03-2005 07:55 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With everything that happened to him at the WSOP and how his cash games are going (http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...amp;ucat=&) I wonder how he manages to remain tilt-free.

Seriously, being stuck a quarter of a million dollars after playing as well as possible = [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this quote

".... I made it $2600 with the K-9 of clubs. Barry made it $10,000 behind me as he likes to do before the flop with weakish hands.... Barry... sent his money to the center with the Ac Jd"

So Short handed.. AJo is a weakish hand?

Although I think Barry's call is pretty bad. There is 30ish thousand in the middle before Daniel makes it 110 all-in. So 110 to call to win 140

110:140

[/ QUOTE ]
There's actually 40-ish in the pot. 10K from both PF + blinds and antes (negligible.. between 1 and 2K) + 10K from both post flop (Barry bet 10K, Daniel put in 10K to match plus 110 more). Still looks like a fold to me.

NLfool 11-03-2005 08:01 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With everything that happened to him at the WSOP and how his cash games are going (http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...amp;ucat=&) I wonder how he manages to remain tilt-free.

Seriously, being stuck a quarter of a million dollars after playing as well as possible = [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this quote

".... I made it $2600 with the K-9 of clubs. Barry made it $10,000 behind me as he likes to do before the flop with weakish hands.... Barry... sent his money to the center with the Ac Jd"

So Short handed.. AJo is a weakish hand?

Although I think Barry's call is pretty bad. There is 30ish thousand in the middle before Daniel makes it 110 all-in. So 110 to call to win 140

110:140

[/ QUOTE ]
There's actually 40-ish in the pot. 10K from both PF + blinds and antes (negligible.. between 1 and 2K) + 10K from both post flop (Barry bet 10K, Daniel put in 10K to match plus 110 more). Still looks like a fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

if all info is correct what's the deal with these top guys playing like the average party player.

11-03-2005 08:34 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
You simply can't play like the average solid rock and expect to win anything at those stakes.

Jim T 11-03-2005 09:11 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]

Although I think Barry's call is pretty bad. There is 30ish thousand in the middle before Daniel makes it 110 all-in. So 110 to call to win 140

110:140

Needs about 47% equity to call here, and after running the numbers, putting Daniel on a wide range of hands.. (77+/22-33+/Made flush)

Barry only has about a 40% equity against this hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that the hand range you selected is about right. 110:140 tells me that Barry needs 44% to call, not 47 (110/250=.44). Also if there is in fact 40 grand plus already in the pot, then Barry only needs 110/261= .423 to make it an EV neutral call.

So he has about 40% vs needing at least 42.3% against DN's likely range of hands. Bad call? Only marginally, and then only if DN never bluffs with nothing. If he's bluffing here 5% of the time (or more) though ....

Burdzthewurd 11-03-2005 09:54 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
Getting married to a very attractive, Asian woman that he loves = WHO THE HELL CARES IF HES RUNNING BAD CERTAINLY NOT HIM

Jason Strasser 11-03-2005 10:36 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
regression to the mean

whiskeytown 11-03-2005 10:47 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
it's all variance- LOL

RB

Snoogins47 11-03-2005 11:00 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
[ QUOTE ]


if all info is correct what's the deal with these top guys playing like the average party player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too positive, but this "Barry" guy and "Daniel" might have some sort of history of playing together. That could come into play. And they *might* think that they could run into each other again in the future. I don't know though. That might have some effect.

flatline 11-04-2005 04:25 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
Wow, he says on his blog he just took a 447k hit on the second day of High Stakes Poker. I know he's loaded, but that's still gotta hurt.

Brad F. 11-04-2005 04:48 PM

Re: Jesus, Negreanu is running REALLY badly this year
 
That amount is so absurd to read I really don't know what to say.

I mean honestly, losing 15 years of my salary in one night just stymies me. Bigtime.

Brad


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