Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

If chris simms is starting, bet the house against the bucs, he is so bad. Thats my only pick, unload in favor of the panthers, simms is pathetic.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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If chris simms is starting, bet the house against the bucs, he is so bad. Thats my only pick, unload in favor of the panthers, simms is pathetic.

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The line reflects this already with TB as a Pick at home.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Yeah, back when they had one of the best starting QBs in the NFL in Brian Griese, they would have been a sure thing to win this game. I think it is fairly obvious TB does not depend much on their QB to win. I think they will be able to run on Carolina, hence not need Simms to win it for them. Carolina has been awful on the road this year, I like TB in a small upset.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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Yeah, back when they had one of the best starting QBs in the NFL in Brian Griese, they would have been a sure thing to win this game. I think it is fairly obvious TB does not depend much on their QB to win. I think they will be able to run on Carolina, hence not need Simms to win it for them. Carolina has been awful on the road this year, I like TB in a small upset.

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TB couldnt score against the worst team in the NFL. Simms looked horrible. The Bucs are the last team I would be betting on this weekend.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

SF may be the worst team in the league, but their defense did what it had to on Sunday. TB's gaining only 43 yards rushing on 20 attempts can't be pinned all on Simms. This line looks about right to me, and I'd feel no more comfortable betting on Carolina than on TB.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

When your running game is averaging 2 yards a carry, all but an elite few of the QBs in the NFL would look terrible. Look how much better Anthony Wright was with a running game in the Monday night game. I think that TB will have enough of a running game vs Carolina to beat them at home. Just my opinion. If you disagree, go with the masses that are betting Carolina. SF has been tough at home this year on everyone except for Indianapolis, so this loss is not as bad as it looks on paper. I see value in TB, so I am betting them. I have been wrong about 47% this season, and wrong over 50% last three weeks, so there is an excellent chance you are right.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

the reason they cant run is because simms is the qb. the niners literally had nine guys in the box, if you watched the game. the 49ers defense is terrible people, think for a second, how many points did the REDSKINS score on them? the defense is pathetic, every team has scored like 40 points on them. im telling you, chris simms is terrible, in college and in the pros. he will lose this game, plus the panthers are a good team, this isnt the 49ers. The 49ers beat this spread, the panthers will do it with little trouble.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Well, regardless of what you're telling me, Simms was 21 of 34 for 264 yards, and that isn't terrible. He wasn't particularly good because he made key mistakes: he was sacked five times (not all of which were his fault), he fumbled, and he threw two interceptions, though one of those bounced off of a referee's head. And just because the Redskins put up a lot of points on the Niners doesn't mean that SF's defense was atrocious on Sunday: teams play well or poorly on different weeks, and match up well or poorly with different teams.

Despite all that, you're obviously sold on a Panthers blowout, and I think we've made our respective points. I'll just add that those who deal in absolutes ("guaranteed money"; "simms is terrible") as opposed to probabilities often run into trouble with sports betting. You could well be right that the Panthers win this handily - certainly the majority of bettors agree - but it's not nearly as certain an event as you're suggesting.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

I dont like this game too much at all... Carolina has had an easy schedule so far and have a nice record but seems to be one of those teams that plays down to the level of their opponent - they've managed to eek out close wins against teams that should easily be beaten: Arizona, GB, and Detroit. I would argue that those teams are all worse than TB is w/ Chris Simms. None of these games were close to blowouts. Also their 2 losses have also come against the horrible Saints and the average-slightly above average Dolphins. They've had one dominating game all year long and that's against the Vikings who everybody dominates.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Every week it seems somoene comes on here and claims a game is "free money" and projects a blowout. How many of those people have been right so far? Nobody really knows what is going to happen in an NFL game. Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

I forgot teams play the same in front of a home crowd and on the road. Silly me.

Last time it was Atlanta (at New Orleans), now it's Carolina. Same old story 'round here. This time though I'm not on TB for very much.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.

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So based on this logic one should always take the favorite?

craig

p.s. The line doesn't come out of vegas.

p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.

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So based on this logic one should always take the favorite?

craig

p.s. The line doesn't come out of vegas.

p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

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I made my point the wrong way. I meant that since money is going in so big on Carolina, and the line hasn't moved, I'll take my chances. Also, I was saying that the linesmakers aren't predicting a blowout, and I trust them more than some random who talks about "guarenteed money".

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

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Color me a n00b, but what exactly do you mean by this?

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

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Color me a n00b, but what exactly do you mean by this?

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Well, without trying to start a huge debate, because this topic always does, but it is a myth that the book wants even action on a game. They want to win money. And knowing where the money is going to go and the -110 one has to lay (in most instances) they are at a huge advantage.

craig

p.s. Oh, I forgot to call you a Noob, Noob [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

All I am saying is that Chris Simms is pathetic. If you watched the game, it was very obvious how bad he was/is. Sorry that I said the word guaranteed, this obviously was not a very technical or mathematical post, but if you have ever watched Chris Simms, it is very apparent that he is scared and terrible, and makes the worst possible decision when it matters. Tampa is not that good a team, I think this Sunday will prove that, but again, I am not trying to actually say it is guaranteed, it was just a joke. Aight, good luck, if you bet on TB, foolish.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Whenever someone uses the terms "guaranteed money" and "bet the house", I almost always want to bet the other side. Unfortunately, I also have money on Carolina this week. I like their chances to win but I think it's far from a sure thing.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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if you bet on TB, foolish.

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Love the wise commentary, much appreciated. Btw the anti-Simms bets jumped the shark last week so I'm sorry if you weren't able to get it in on then when San Fran covering +11 was far more of a sure thing.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

I'm taking Carolina, but I wouldn't care if Griese (healthy) or Simms were starting. I simply think Carolina has a lot more grit than Tampa. I'll be very suprised if this is some kind of blowout. Probably comes down to a final drive for a field goal, and whoever has more guts will pull it out. Take Carolina on the Moneyline.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Don't be so brash and hasty - he hadn't seen live snaps in two months before last week's game. You better believe TB will come out flying -- this one will be alot closer than you think.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

SF the worst team in the league? Not a chance - or did you forget that there is a second team in Texas. The 49ers aren't challenging for the SB but their defense is solid. Rookie mistakes by a pseudo-rookie QB put Tampa out of this one in spite of their defense (SF didn't have a drive of more than 30 yards). Don't just look at the final score to make judgements on games.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

I can't wait to hear how Cadillac's 2 fumbles were Simms' fault.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

God Simms is so bad. Those two fumbles on Cadillac were completely Simms' fault, just terrible handoffs. Im just kidding, but tampa was overrated in this game, Simms was overmatched. In conclusion, Chris Simms blows.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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God Simms is so bad. Those two fumbles on Cadillac were completely Simms' fault, just terrible handoffs. Im just kidding, but tampa was overrated in this game, Simms was overmatched. In conclusion, Chris Simms blows.

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It was Tampa's D that was overrated in this game. It would've been hard for any QB to score 37 pts. But seriously, you're a genius! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

I agree with you, but: I never thought Simms was that good even in college. Seemed like Major Applewhite outplayed him most of the time.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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I agree with you, but: I never thought Simms was that good even in college. Seemed like Major Applewhite outplayed him most of the time.

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Oh totally. Applewhite got so stiffed. Great college QB.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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Great college QB.

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Great name, too!

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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God Simms is so bad. Those two fumbles on Cadillac were completely Simms' fault, just terrible handoffs. Im just kidding, but tampa was overrated in this game, Simms was overmatched. In conclusion, Chris Simms blows.

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It was Tampa's D that was overrated in this game. It would've been hard for any QB to score 37 pts. But seriously, you're a genius! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Why all the anger when someone says a game is a "Lock" "free Money" or whatever?
Did he bet your money???
And does any not think Chris Simms sucks?
The discussion should have been on how much does he suck. Specifically does he suck more or less then the common bettor thinks he sucks.

Ken

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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I agree with you, but: I never thought Simms was that good even in college. Seemed like Major Applewhite outplayed him most of the time.

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Oh totally. Applewhite got so stiffed. Great college QB.

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I keep hoping he pops up the Arena League or CFL or something.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

Chris Simms was never liked here at Texas. He made Major Applewhite, a senior, league leader at the time of many Big 12 passing and QB records, sit on the bench.

Simms is pretty much a prick in real life from reports of people I know in Austin that came across him.

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

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Simms is pretty much a prick in real life from reports of people I know in Austin that came across him.

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He is the probably spoiled son of a NFL player...

Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money
 

[ QUOTE ]
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I agree with you, but: I never thought Simms was that good even in college. Seemed like Major Applewhite outplayed him most of the time.

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Oh totally. Applewhite got so stiffed. Great college QB.

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I keep hoping he pops up the Arena League or CFL or something.

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Not going to happen he's coaching QB's at Syracuse.

He will be an outstanding coach some day.