Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

I promised to provide a thorough analysis of why the Falcons are a good play this week. I can't because I don't have time (getting ready to go to Tunica for 4 days of heavenly poker).

I will say this. I still like this matchup A LOT. Miami is a solidly coached team, but they have no true threats, either offensively or defensively. Their downfield passing is limited in large part by their weak (but possibly up and coming) offensive line. Frerotte plays solid football, not taking many chances. Ronnie Brown is still learning the game and it shows, although you can tell is a potential great one.

The Falcons on the other hand have a several playmakers, both offensively and defensively, that can break the game open. Vick, Dunn, Crumpler, on offense, Hall, Kerney, Coleman on defense, and Rossum on special teams. While Miami's defense is solid, they are not in the mold of the defenses that give Vick the most trouble, like Philly or TB. Their pass rush is limited and Vick will have all day to decide what to do. When that happens, he is usually deadly, either passing or throwing. If Vick is 100% healty, this will be an "easy" game for him. He'll be able to dictate and control this game. I don't expect Dunn to have a big game, but Vick should given the nature of this defense. Most of my analysis here is kind of generic, but trust me when I tell you Miami's defense will not pose a problem for Vick and the Falcons offense, especially coming off a bye week. And Miami's offense, while developing, just doesn't have the weapons to threaten the improving Falcons defense.

There's a lot more I can say about this game, but just don't have the time or energy.

Atlanta will win by 10 or 14. As I suspected the line have moved from 2.5 to 1.5. It may move further. Take Atlanta at any price below 3, but wait to see if the line moves further down and be sure Vick is healthy before you make the move -- I'll try to report on what I know before the game on Sunday...They will then move on back home to beat a devastated Green Bay team before their real schedule begins. Carolina is their only threat right now in the South as I firmly believe Tampa will continue its collapse.

Also, does anyone know of any books that have running back yardage props for Sunday games? I think Dunn will underperform in this game so I'd be curious to see what props, if any, are available.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

It's cool that you omitted all usage of the word "we" when discussing the Falcons team this week.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

Good luck, Toast. I wish none of the same to your Falcons. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

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It's cool that you omitted all usage of the word "we" when discussing the Falcons team this week.

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Maybe thats because its been 11 days since I've watched them play -- I'm losing my attachment!

By the way, I expect the Atlanta/Green Bay line to be -8 or more, especially if Falcons win this week. If that is true, it is highly unlikely I would recommend a Falcons bet.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

And from the always accurate analysis of Peter King we get this gem:

I just don't like this matchup for Michael Vick. Too much pressure from a smart defense and he hasn't shown the accuracy to make the Dolphins pay for that pressure.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

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And from the always accurate analysis of Peter King we get this gem:

I just don't like this matchup for Michael Vick. Too much pressure from a smart defense and he hasn't shown the accuracy to make the Dolphins pay for that pressure.

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Theres a big difference between pressure and team speed. Miami doesn't have it like Philly/TB. Peter King is always critical against Vick (but you may already know that).

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

no more gadget plays and fewer pass plays Nick....RUN THE BALL. It's the Falcons run D for chrissakes

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

Dammit, another idiotic gadget play on 1st down at the Atl 40, loss of 4 after Ronnie Brown ran the ball with ease. Saban and off. coordinator, you suck.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

Scott linehan is a [censored] moron who should be canned ASAP.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

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Scott linehan is a [censored] moron who should be canned ASAP.

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3rd and 2 on the 6, Brown running great, and you put in the game in Gus Frerotte's hands. He should absolutely be fired after the game.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

Heh, and everyone thought he was a genius after Week 3.
He was the OC for a good Vikings offense...bleh...so was Brian Billick.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

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Heh, and everyone thought he was a genius after Week 3.
He was the OC for a good Vikings offense...bleh...so was Brian Billick.

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What a terrible season for me. Painful. Bad Atlanta run D, good Miami run O, and they take zero advantage at key moments. Just awful.

Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Atlanta will win by 10 or 14.

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Can't be perfect.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Atlanta will win by 10 or 14.

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Can't be perfect.

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No I can't. I had this game pretty well pegged. I was surprised by 2 things however. First, I was surprised at how infrequently Vick had real time to throw the ball and how he had few really solid passing lanes. I expected him to have more time in the pocket. I think the reason for this is is that the Falcons OL, while obviously a good run blocking line, still struggles with pass protection; also, Miami blitzed A LOT more than I expected.

The second thing I was surprised by (and I'm sure others were as well) was just how well Vick played against such a strong pass rush. His accuracy was the obvious thing; but more important and impressive was his decisionmaking. He really felt and saw the blitz coming and made almost every correct decision. This was a big step for him.

This game would have been a blowout if it weren't for Griffith's and Rossum's fumbles. The Falcons simply are a far superior team right now. However, as Syg has pointed out, their run defense is still their biggest weakness.

I expect the Falcons to be favored by about 9 or 10 against Green Bay. My early feeling is that I won't see a lot of value either way in this game. but that could change after I analyze Green Bay some more and determine how healthy Atlanta cam out of this game. One thing that bodes well for the Falcons for this game is that Carolina proved today that they will tough to stay with in the South.

Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

Yeah, Miami did blitz a ton - I don't understand why teams do that vs. Vick - especially up the middle. And the game shouldn't have been that close - Finneran also dropped an easy TD.
Do the refs have to coddle Vick that much though? Some of those personal foul calls were a joke.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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That is not fair. I feel awful and my bankroll is in terrible shape.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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That is not fair. I feel awful and my bankroll is in terrible shape.

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The smily face said "Just kidding...I'm not blaming you." My other favorite "pickers" also had miserable days. it was just ugly all around.

Hang in there Syg. I still have faith in your system.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

I fear, but hope against, a titanic correction by favorites this year.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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I fear, but hope against, a titanic correction by favorites this year.

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There has to be some sort of correlation to favorites success early in the year and failures later in the year. The public has to be feeling REAL good about sticking with the favorite right now - have to think this will push the lines even further in the right direction.

Then again, maybe it's time to jump ship and start playing all the favorites because they *CANT* lose.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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The public has to be feeling REAL good about sticking with the favorite right now - have to think this will push the lines even further in the right direction.

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I quite honestly thought that would be starting this week, Doug. Alas, no.