Pushing too hard or just right?
 

The original raiser in this hand is a total lag 40/20/1.5. His late postion raising standards are very thin however I havent seen too much of his play from earlier positions. The cold caller is a loose passive donkey.

Did I push too hard or put in the right amount of action?

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.67 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (11.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23.33 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.33 BB.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I'd cap the river.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I like your line. IMO, as an earlier poster said, capping the river is -EV. I like the raise/call RR on the river. Would AQ be that far of a reach, or KK or AA here? I'm thinking QQ is more likely, but I've seen KK and AA played the same here.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I think you played it fine.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

You might consider ending the post with "hero raises..." as the knowledge that your opponent 3-bets may influence the answers.

The river raise is the only place I have any doubt. Yeah, he raises 20% of his hands, but is he really capping KT? Is he really going to give all this action with 1 pair? These seem pretty doubtful, so you have to believe he has either 99, which we don't know he'll cap, and QQ, which he surely will. Since you are offering 2:1 on the river raise, I think a call is in order.

-Eric

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

We beat KT. If you put KT in his hand range, you should raise, as there would then bet 16 KT's and 3 99's we beat, vs 3 QQ's we don't, making us better than 6:1 favorites.

good luck.
eric

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

What could MP3 have called 4 bets on the turn and folded the river with? Not really relevant but I am curious can we put him on a hand that makes sense at all betting points?

I think we are missing a bunch on hands UTG could have assuming he is a 42% players. That's a HIGH number and 20% PFR! And he STILL has a PFAF of 1.5!
Certified maniac!!

He can certainly have:
AA
KK
KT
QQ
99
QJ
AQ
AJ
J9
T8suited
33

All you lose to is 33 and QQ. (If this were a 4 raise game my decision may be altered)

I cap the river.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

opponenet is 40/20/1.5

he doesn't think like you.

Barron

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

We beat KT. If you put KT in his hand range, you should raise, as there would then bet 16 KT's and 3 99's we beat, vs 3 QQ's we don't, making us better than 6:1 favorites.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I missed that full house thingy. My bad.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

The guy's a maniac, we've established that.

His range IMO here is AA,KK,QQ,QJ,K10,and 99, and a very very small part of the time &gt;5% he's bluffing completely.

I think it's highly possible he has an overpair here and his river action signifies that he thinks you got counterfeited.....ugh.....i hate even thinking what it's like to think like that given the action....

anyways, cap the river. if his range is what i said above, you're behind rarely here..... cap that [censored]

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

cap it up and see QJo