closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

if this has been posted before, i didn't see it, and i didn't find it in search, so here goes. What game (any game/sport/etc) is the closest to poker in terms of the short-term luck effects vs. the long-term skill effects? Obviously it's not something like chess, because I will never be able to beat a grandmaster, even in the short-term. I have an idea in mind, but I'd like to hear some other opinions.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

I'd say closest traditional game would be bridge, but there's this collectible card game called Magic: The Gathering which I think is pretty close to poker when looking at short time luck vs playing skill for any longer perioid of time.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Hi sooga,

I would say that backgammon has similarities to poker, except for the hidden cards aspects, but definitely in terms of odds and variance.

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I would say that backgammon has similarities to poker, except for the hidden cards aspects

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Yeah, and night is similar to day except for that whole sun thing. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

The game I was thinking about was 'Scrabble'... if you had a great run of good tiles and a much higher-ranked opponent was dealt a really a bad run of tiles, you could easily beat him. But of course, over the long run against a superior Scrabble player, you'd be destroyed.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Gammon

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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Gammon

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Some blackjack games can be a good struggle between luck and skill, a good counter can give himself a decent edge and still just not get the cards he'd hope for.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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I'd say closest traditional game would be bridge, but there's this collectible card game called Magic: The Gathering which I think is pretty close to poker when looking at short time luck vs playing skill for any longer perioid of time.

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Jesus tapdancing Christ...

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Baseball

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

you've got a point, but i think backgammon and bridge (more-so backgammon than bridge)

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Also, consider shuffle board.

LMAO

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

definitely backgammon, but i think there is more luck in backgammon, because if two players know what the'yre doing, the game usually come down to 1 decisive roll. in poker there are usually more than 1 crucial situation in a session

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Uno

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Football, more specifically, the Redskins

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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Baseball

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This is actually not a horrible answer, except that teams of hugely different skill wouldn't have much variance in their results. But teams on the same level - say, almost all major-league teams - do have a lot of variance.

An even better example would be a single batter's batting average. There is a ton of variance there that commentators go nuts trying to explain...strangely enough, you very rarely hear them mention sample size. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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Baseball

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This is actually not a horrible answer, except that teams of hugely different skill wouldn't have much variance in their results. But teams on the same level - say, almost all major-league teams - do have a lot of variance.

An even better example would be a single batter's batting average. There is a ton of variance there that commentators go nuts trying to explain...strangely enough, you very rarely hear them mention sample size. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If you set up deep stacks and low blinds, a vastly superior player will almost always win, too (if he plays without regard to time).

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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Baseball

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This is actually not a horrible answer, except that teams of hugely different skill wouldn't have much variance in their results. But teams on the same level - say, almost all major-league teams - do have a lot of variance.

An even better example would be a single batter's batting average. There is a ton of variance there that commentators go nuts trying to explain...strangely enough, you very rarely hear them mention sample size. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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It wasn't intended to be a horrible answer, it was serious. I see any number of similarities between the games.

Of course you have to limit it to a relatively small range of participants. If you have a better than average team against a high school team the variance won’t be enough.

As a matter of fact, the Red Sox have faced the Boston College team every spring for as long as I can remember. It used to be the first game for both teams and BC usually didn’t score and never won.

Lately they have changed it so that BC has some games first and BC has managed to score and actually had a lead once. They still haven’t won.

But if you compare baseball and football you’ll see that the best NFL team usually has something like 12-14 wins and there’s usually a team with only one or two. Meanwhile there is almost never a major league baseball team that has fewer than fifty or so wins or more than about 105.

If you think about it, winning poker is based on four things, 1) Patience, 2) Aggression, 3) Unpredictability, 4) Luck. If you look at baseball, you’ll see the same things. The best offensive performers are the ones who are both patient and aggressive. They listen to Ted Williams, wait for their pitch and beat the ever loving snot out of it. On the pitching side, you can’t afford to be predictable unless you have a 101 MPH fastball. Still, a pitching staff will throw 100-150 pitches per game and there will be mistakes. If that mistake is with the bases empty you give up one run and if it comes with them loaded, you give up four. Only luck is the difference. And the bunching of hits is pretty much luck unless the pitcher can’t pitch from the stretch.

And luck is luck. The difference between a line drive and a popup is about a quarter of an inch.

A lot of folks are under the impression that the good teams are good because they win close games but the reality is that the good teams are good because they avoid close games. Much like in a poker tournament if you avoid getting all your chips in, you’ll never get busted.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Scrabble has a pretty high "entry level." At the point where I am, I could beat a guy like Trey with the right tiles. If you're talking about some random 1100 guy on ISC he has no chance, no matter how good the tiles are for him.

With poker you can be a retard and get really lucky, as you see in many TV tournaments. With scrabble you can compensate for "really bad" tiles by making plays with a vast vocabulary, but with poker you can't do anything but lose a hand. The extra bet that the pro makes in poker is far less of an edge than the 25 points the pro gets for garbage played well against the 6 the tard gets for not being able to hook ?EILNRT since he doesn't know the 2's.

~D

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

You specify just in terms of skill versus luck, but there are also different kinds of skill (the only kinds of luck are good and bad). Baseball, backgammon and bridge require skill, but totally different from Poker skills.

I'd match Poker to Gin Rummy. You can get dealt Gin, like you can get dealt a Royal Flush; but in the long run the better player will collect the most money. The skills are similar, simple cardplay with complex psychology.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Stratego

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Stratego

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Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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I'd say closest traditional game would be bridge

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There are many forms of poker. They have different skill/luck ratios.

There are also different versions of bridge. Cut-around money rubber (or Chicago) bridge is probably closest to poker in terms of luck/skill ratio, but I still think that there is quite a bit more luck in poker. In long knockout bridge matches, relatively weaker teams are going to finish well much less frequently than relatively weaker players are going to finish well in poker tournaments. My gut tells me that backgammon would be a better answer. However, this may well be because I'm a much better bridge player than backgammon player.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Pinochle. Rock-Paper-Scissors.

I have never played backgammon, but all the other responses in this thread are too far skill. Scrabble and baseball are both rediculous (you are thinking too much of a skilled vs. slightly less skilled player, try thinking of semi-donk vs master, the comparison falls apart.)

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Stratego

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"I swear I don't know where the bombs are. Only the miners know that!"

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Stratego

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"I swear I don't know where the bombs are. Only the miners know that!"

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LOL, good part. I challenge anyone on this board to a set of games in stratego for up to $1K

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Does your challenge involve old school stratego or the new one with the cannons and stuff with that board that flips over.

I was school champion of the old stratego...Yes we had a tournament.

Axis and Allies anyone? But yeah my answer would be backgammon.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Yes, true Stratego. Bring it!

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

I read this post about a week ago, and then on Sunday while watching the football games, I realized that poker is a lot like football.

First, you have the coaches. Each coach is different (each player is different, and has a different style). Each has their own style of coaching, dealing with stress, etc. They have their own "secret" plays (cards) and neither really knows what the other will do, but can adjust according to how the other is going to play. Players are the equivalent to variance I would imagine, because you can't really control that aspect of the game.

Just some random thoughts. I know there were more similarities but I can't remember them right now.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Axis and Allies = pure skill.... imagine how easily you could get talked into supporting and completely trusting someone like Bill Clinton or Ghandi.... and then they move into Munich with an army!!!!

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

Is Stratego playable online?

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

yahtzee, spades

ok maybe not yahtzee

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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Jesus Tapdancing Christ

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I wish I could understand why that was so funny to me.

Anyway, My vote for the game that has similar variances to poker would be the traditional ass-kicking contest. Specifically those which involve two men, each of whom only have one leg.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

this is gonna sound like a really obscure answer, but i'm gonna go with bullriding. the reason being is that Poker is one of the only games where there is something involved that is completly out of the control of all the competitors. the cards dealt in poker is like the bull. even the best rider could get thrown early, and even a rodeo-donk could stay on for 8 seconds if the bull were to slow down a bit.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

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There are also different versions of bridge. Cut-around money rubber (or Chicago) bridge is probably closest to poker in terms of luck/skill ratio, but I still think that there is quite a bit more luck in poker. In long knockout bridge matches, relatively weaker teams are going to finish well much less frequently than relatively weaker players are going to finish well in poker tournaments. My gut tells me that backgammon would be a better answer. However, this may well be because I'm a much better bridge player than backgammon player.

[/ QUOTE ]A short matchpoint event might be very close. I'm not a bridge expert, but I've got a few regional wins. And, in national championships, I have finished ahead of players who are much better than I am. Even in short team matches, I have come out ahead of world champions.

I'm not sure what comparable event in tournament poker there would be for a national knock out team championship in bridge, however. The WPT and World Series of Poker events are not the same, otherwise you'd have final tables made up of all known players.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
 

Anytime you are near Boston, PM me.

Bring aspirin and a box of Kleenex, your ego may hurt awhile...

-ZEN

Re: CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
 

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Anytime you are near Boston, PM me.

Bring aspirin and a box of Kleenex, your ego may hurt awhile...

-ZEN

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Never been, but if I'm on the east coast, you are mine! Don't worry, I always bring pain meds and kleenex for my opponents. And then we celebrate my victory with some form of alcohol.

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Risk would fit the bill pretty well.

Re: closest game to poker, skill v. luck
 

I used to play in bridge tournaments and I can say the game most like poker is definitely not Bridge. Most bridge tournaments are played in a style called "duplicate bridge" where everyone plays the exact same hands. Essentially every event has 2 winners - if there were 20 teams in the tournament you have 2 sets of 10 teams that played the exact same hands (rotating to play against the other set of 10 teams). Then each of the 10 teams is ranked in order of how many points they scored for that hand (10 points for the most points on the hand down to 1 point for the least). Then those rankings are tallied and you have your winner. So there is absolutely no luck with what cards you get.

Also, there is no deception in bridge. You have to let your oppontents see a summary of what your bidding system is. If your bidding system has an unusual aspect you have to alert your opponents when it happens. If my opponents are unsure of what my bid means they are allowed to ask my partner what that bid meant. If I'm not consistent following my bidding system our opponents can call the judge and we can get penalized.

So at least in tournament play Bridge isn't really anything like poker.

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Risk would fit the bill pretty well.

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I offer the same challenge.