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-   -   So I thought I should fold my boat... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=370085)

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 12:32 AM

So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
But I think I like this call down with A high. Same table as my other post, but earlier in the night. Pax hadn't shown up yet. It was just Pedro, Jax, Bottomset and I.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB (bottomset) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, bottomset calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, bottomset calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">bottomset raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">bottomset bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Why do I think this call down was better? Is it better?

NateDog 11-02-2005 12:37 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
Set has JTs and YHIG.

11-02-2005 01:00 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I think his 3bet range is pretty large from the BB HU preflop. a majority of them aren't pairs, and you're not trailing anything else. You're definitely ahead often enough.

11-02-2005 01:45 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I think you have to call the turn the majority of the time (if not three-betting). Not quite sure if I'm evaluating this correctly, but the tighter bottomset's PF three-betting range is, the more often you're ahead on the turn (sez PokerStove), in addition to the times you improve to the best hand. Also considering the size of the pot, I really don't think folding is an option. He could be raising the turn with almost anything as it's likely it hasn't connected with your possible high-cards.

Wouldn't bet-folding be better here if you're committed to calling a bet on the river? Check-calling allows for bottomset to take a free showdown with a worse A-high or busted draw, and value bet any pair he's made (as an A-high is probably calling on this board, and your play is consistant unpaired overs).

I guess it depends on his propensity to bet the river with a busted draw, or bluff-raise with the same (read dependent). But after you call the turn raise, I generally can't see him seeing you fold the river with an A or an overpair often enough.

Anyway, yeah. Just some thoughts that may or may not be completely wrong.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 01:48 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I definitely see your point about wanting to bet the river. The question is, though, is he going to give up with a busted draw? Can I get one more bluff bet out of him? Would he consider raising with a worse hand, bluffing me out of a pot that was mine?

Nfinity 11-02-2005 01:59 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
His Flop play combined with his Turn play looks like UI overs or 55, 66.

Your really close to convincing me on the River, but I have to know what made him opt out of the free showdown play with overs.

Maybe he expects you to expect the free showdown and bet.

LoaferGee12 11-02-2005 02:27 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I play this the same way. You really can't fold AK here in this HU blind defense pot.

Nfinity 11-02-2005 03:16 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
Yes you can find a fold on this river.

You have shown Bottomset your strength and willingness to go to showdown, both by capping pre-flop and leading the Flop, as well as bet calling on the Turn. True this board is ragged and you probably don't have a piece of it, but that doesn't mean you need to.

Set's Turn raise is typical of a weak but showdownable hand. The point is to either fold you on the Turn, or check the River UI. When you call here he can't want to be putting any more money in without making a hand.

On the river there are only 2 kinds of hands that bet here: hands that beat you, and hands that stand absolutely no chance in a showdown, and given the action there are very few of those.

Most of the the hands you beat(and a few that don't) check this river.

Let me throw this out there. Since this is a fairly large pot that we want to win, and Set has shown a desire for a free showdown, why give him one? Why not bet/fold this River. Sure we get called by a Pair here and there that would have checked through, but you might make a few of them fold, and you will induce a couple more crying calls from naked Aces. You certainly won't be giving a weaker hand a chance to bluff you out on the river.

bottomset 11-02-2005 04:01 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
bottomset wasn't playing anywhere near his best game at this table, or tonight ..

and I always look bad in these posts were I'm featured as a villian

Shillx 11-02-2005 04:05 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
Don't fold Wookie. You gonna be in Vegas in a few days right Bset?????

Edit - Awesome dude. Looks like we just got moved to the Bellagio (with Donkey, Entity and Jason T). Will be good times. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

bottomset 11-02-2005 04:07 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold Wookie. You gonna be in Vegas in a few days right Bset?????

[/ QUOTE ]

yep get in Thurs night, leave Mon morning

staying with Dids, PITTM, UWMadtown at the Wynn

2+2 wannabe 11-02-2005 04:15 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Set has KJs and YHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nfinity 11-02-2005 04:22 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Set has KJs and YHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
It was a bit worse for Wook on the Turn than that.

2+2 wannabe 11-02-2005 04:25 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Set has KJs and YHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
It was a bit worse for Wook on the Turn than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol I change my guess to 77

Nfinity 11-02-2005 04:25 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to call the turn the majority of the time (if not three-betting). Not quite sure if I'm evaluating this correctly, but the tighter bottomset's PF three-betting range is, the more often you're ahead on the turn (sez PokerStove), in addition to the times you improve to the best hand. Also considering the size of the pot, I really don't think folding is an option. He could be raising the turn with almost anything as it's likely it hasn't connected with your possible high-cards.

Wouldn't bet-folding be better here if you're committed to calling a bet on the river? Check-calling allows for bottomset to take a free showdown with a worse A-high or busted draw, and value bet any pair he's made (as an A-high is probably calling on this board, and your play is consistant unpaired overs).

I guess it depends on his propensity to bet the river with a busted draw, or bluff-raise with the same (read dependent). But after you call the turn raise, I generally can't see him seeing you fold the river with an A or an overpair often enough.

Anyway, yeah. Just some thoughts that may or may not be completely wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't realized you already proposed bet/Folding the River.

Nice.

2+2 wannabe 11-02-2005 04:28 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I don't get bet-folding this river

you're not folding any hands that you beat, and you're not getting called by many hands that you beat (AQ/AJ maybe)

bottomset 11-02-2005 04:44 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Set has JTs and YHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

close T9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I mix it up with this hand preflop, I like 3betting these types of hands, since it hits a ton of flops, and makes it tougher to read postflop, plus I have position, only bad choice preflop is fold

flop: his cap generally means high cards, or a pair, so I have a BD flush draw, a BD straight draw, and some pair value, since he can easily be capping 88, AJ or the like

turn: well that is the best card in the deck that doesn't make me a pair, I can have upto 21outs(like I ended up having this time), and maybe get him off weaker overcard hands occasionally. most of my turn raises in situations like this a pairs or better

river: he didn't 3bet the turn, so he doesn't have a monster, though this bluff is prob ill-advised since he did call the turn raise, and it was a brick river, not sure if has a hand that can draw to the river, but doesn't have SD value 1/10times, prob not

kapw7 11-02-2005 04:49 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
You started playing like me? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Although I almost never bluff a 9BB pot on the river against a decent player.

bottomset 11-02-2005 04:53 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
You started playing like me? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Although I almost never bluff a 9BB pot on the river against a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

yeah I don't like the river bet, but I do like the rest of the hand .. and I almost got him [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

11-02-2005 10:13 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I don't know about a few things on this hand.

1 - the flop bet screams continuation bet to me. The pot is big so the bottomset is likely going to call for 1 sb. I agree that you may be ahead at this point, but in reality you only have 2 overs. I think that a call here would play nicely. If bottomset bets, call.

2 - Turn, this is where the action is, lead out on the turn, or attempt a checkraise if bottomset bet on the flop. This would show that you have a hand. Otherwise it would still look like continuation. Also, if bottomset has the bottom pair or a draw, the odds are reduced for the call (and you have some fold-equity), I don't think that your hand is so strong you want to build a huge pot, so keeping the pot small on the flop and waiting for the turn could pay off.

3- at the point where bottomset raises you on the turn, you have to consider it is going to cost you 2 BB to get to SD. I like the line to 3-bet the turn, if you get capped, check/fold the river, if you get called, then bet/fold the river. If bottom set caps the turn with nothing he deserves the pot, if he bets the river, after you 3-bet chance are he hit, or is a maniac.

Margon

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 11:09 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
On that board, betting AK is a value bet against bottomset's likely rage. Checking is foolhardy. Checking the turn is not the best of ideas, either. I don't want to give a free card, since he's almost certainly drawing live against me. If he has a hand he'll fold to a turn c/r, I'm winning anyway. Since I capped preflop, bottomset is putting me on a PP or cards that didn't connect with this flop. He's very unlikely to fold any pair. Ugh. And then you want me to 3bet that turn w/ A high, to "find out where I stand?" I'd much rather get to showdown than find out I'm beat in this case. I suggest you read this classic post by NPA.

TomBrooks 11-02-2005 11:20 AM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why do I think this call down was better?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because it was bottomset on a 2+2 Lagfest Table?

Paxosmotic 11-02-2005 02:19 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do I think this call down was better?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because it was bottomset on a 2+2 Lagfest Table?

[/ QUOTE ]
If that's your opinion of a 2+2 table, you really need to sit with me, Wookie, Jaxup, and our assorted cast.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 02:57 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I was lazy and didn't repost the read. Here's the hand where I described it. It was certainly not a lag fest. It was one of the toughest games I've played in.

TomBrooks 11-02-2005 03:01 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do I think this call down was better?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because it was bottomset on a 2+2 Lagfest Table?

[/ QUOTE ]
If that's your opinion of a 2+2 table, you really need to sit with me, Wookie, Jaxup, and our assorted cast.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Pax,
Maybe things have tightened up lately. I've played on some 2+2 tables, but not recently. I'll jump in again when I see one and have a chance. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

sean c 11-02-2005 03:28 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was lazy and didn't repost the read. Here's the hand where I described it. It was certainly not a lag fest. It was one of the toughest games I've played in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the game was a little laggy while i was there but very challenging and a bunch of fun much better than grinding away at the 2/4 all night. I think we should do it on a regular basis like evey Monday or some other slow night. If people ever plan on moving up in limits i can't think of better way to prepare than playing at a serious 2+2 table.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 03:47 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
This is from the table two nights ago, actually, not last night. Last night's table was definitely not serious. Sometimes 2+2 tables are serious, sometimes they're laggy. In general, the lagginess (or, rather, stupid play) increases as the number of 2+2ers increases. When you make a game and post about it, it's easy enough to request a serious A game where people show their hands and discuss the plays.

sean c 11-02-2005 03:50 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is from the table two nights ago, actually, not last night. Last night's table was definitely not serious. Sometimes 2+2 tables are serious, sometimes they're laggy. In general, the lagginess (or, rather, stupid play) increases as the number of 2+2ers increases. When you make a game and post about it, it's easy enough to request a serious A game where people show their hands and discuss the plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad i still think it would be good to have a regular serious 2+2 game though.

bottomset 11-02-2005 03:56 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is from the table two nights ago, actually, not last night. Last night's table was definitely not serious. Sometimes 2+2 tables are serious, sometimes they're laggy. In general, the lagginess (or, rather, stupid play) increases as the number of 2+2ers increases. When you make a game and post about it, it's easy enough to request a serious A game where people show their hands and discuss the plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad i still think it would be good to have a regular serious 2+2 game though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to make them fairly frequently and prob will make another one tonight, even though I got destroyed in the last 2 ... hopefully my game will be back in full force

I think I like my river bet now, after thinking about the whole hand some more

sean c 11-02-2005 04:03 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is from the table two nights ago, actually, not last night. Last night's table was definitely not serious. Sometimes 2+2 tables are serious, sometimes they're laggy. In general, the lagginess (or, rather, stupid play) increases as the number of 2+2ers increases. When you make a game and post about it, it's easy enough to request a serious A game where people show their hands and discuss the plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad i still think it would be good to have a regular serious 2+2 game though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to make them fairly frequently and prob will make another one tonight, even though I got destroyed in the last 2 ... hopefully my game will be back in full force

I think I like my river bet now, after thinking about the whole hand some more

[/ QUOTE ]

I got killed in the O8 game two nights ago but i was easily the biggest fish there. I would be in tonight if you get one going.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 04:10 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

Nfinity 11-02-2005 04:21 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Show me a logical range that bets this river given his plays throughout. Are the hands you beat 12% of that range?

Think about what he thinks you have. How often is he betting AQ or AJ here?

Nfinity 11-02-2005 04:29 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
It's not a matter of making you fold, it's a matter of making you incorrect to call.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 04:38 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

Nfinity 11-02-2005 05:24 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you giving him a to broad of a "junk" holding standard.

You can safely rule out a lot of "junk" based primarily on his Turn play.

I'm not saying your River check-call was wrong, necessarily.As a matter of fact pg 170, 171, and 175 of TOP sums up your situation(although I would contest that part of that assumes your opponent was on a draw a decent preportion of the time, which is certainly not the case here)

9T and TJ(and to some extent KJ) are about the only things I can see a tough, thinking player would bet in this situation that you beat. I also believe it is correct to do so. I don't believe this is 10% of his holdings here.

9T, TJ, KJ, The rest of the "junk" beats you.

MrWookie47 11-02-2005 05:27 PM

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 
Qh9h, QhTh, QhJh, Kh9h, KhTh, KhQh...


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