Thriller
 

Live 20/40. Some of us are playing overs to 40/80, but my opponents here aren't, so that's not really relevant in this hand. UTG+1 open-raises. HJ calls. I call in the BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This is the second hand I've played in the half hour or so I've been at the table and the first one wasn't eventful. I don't know the opponents too well, but they seem to play relatively straightforwardly and are definitely less aggressive than online players. They are used to playing against people who play the same way.

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, pfr bets and we both call. Everything good so far?

Turn is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. What's my plan?

Re: Thriller
 

i mean, at the risk of being captain obvoius: check call.

Barron

Re: Thriller
 

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i mean, at the risk of being captain obvoius: check call.

Barron

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It needed to be said.

Re: Thriller
 

With such a bare board, if you wanted to push the draw I think you needed to checkraise the flop/lead the turn. But if these are typical kinda tight, not aggressive enough, don't fold enough live mid limit players, then I probably don't bother and just check-call until either I hit or the pot odds aren't there. If it was headsup that would be different.

Re: Thriller
 

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i mean, at the risk of being captain obvoius: check call.

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That's what I actually did. But I was trying to figure out later if I buy the pot often enough to justify betting the turn. HJ very likely has a pocket pair and he's very likely gone if I bet here, so it's just a question of if I get EP to fold QQ, JJ or whatever often enough to make up for the extra bet I lose when he has KK/ TT and I get raised. It looks at least close depending on how good I am at reading when firing the last barrel on the river will succeed and when to give up.

Re: Thriller
 

Will he not raise AK or KQ here too? If I had either of those I probably would put you on a draw when you donkbet and raise your shifty move. Boy, you'd be sorry then. Big time.

Just check-call.

Oh, and what does "playing overs" mean?

Re: Thriller
 

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Will he not raise AK or KQ here too?

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I doubt he would have raised preflop with KQ. Maybe suited. If he will raise AK here on the turn, then anything other than check/calling on my part is clearly very wrong. But this isn't Party Poker and my default assumption is that AK probably isn't raising here. But of course it is possible.

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Just check-call.

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Ok, that's fine. This was just a checkup. Everyone likes a check-call. Cool.

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Oh, and what does "playing overs" mean?

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We've got these things called overs button. They are big yellow buttons that say "Over" on them and anyone in the game can take one (not in the middle of a hand, obviously). If any postflop betting round starts with only players with overs buttons, then that round is played "in overs", meaning at higher than normal stakes. We used to always do 30/60 overs in this game, but recently it's been 40/80. So if only people with overs button make it to the river, the river is an $80 street. If anyone without overs makes it, it's a $40 street as usual. If only people with overs see the flop, it's a $40 round and the turn and river are $80 rounds. Etc.

I want to start posting some hands from the game where overs buttons come into play because they aren't discussed in poker literature at all (as far as I know) and they create interesting situations. Obviously, they affect your thinking about implied odds/ reverse implied odds. But there are also times when you raise a hand you otherwise wouldn't because you want to knock out the player without overs so you take the next street in overs. There are other times when the only non-overs player(s) have seen this street but have folded before it's your chance to act, so you might slowplay where you normally wouldn't since you are now guaranteed that the next street is in overs. And so forth. Good times.

Here's a hand I posted recently where they came into play. This was when we were doing 30/60 overs.

Re: Thriller
 

Why not bet the flop?

b

Re: Thriller
 

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Why not bet the flop?

b

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Betting a king high flop w/this hand v.s a UTG+1 raise in the muck 20 game seems like spew against the majority of players... they either have a king, or JJ+ that they aren't going to lay down anyway...(well, maybe Chuck will fold queens here)

Re: Thriller
 

Is flop peel really correct? You have a gutshot and backdoor draws and little else.

Re: Thriller Edit
 

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Why not bet the flop?

b

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Betting a king high flop w/this hand v.s a UTG+1 raise in the muck 20 game seems like spew against the majority of players... they either have a king, or JJ+ that they aren't going to lay down anyway...(well, maybe Chuck will fold queens here)

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

The only thing you're worried about is getting raised and no one is raising unless they have a pair of Ks beat. Though it may take a follow up bet on the turn to fold them.

Edit: If chuck raised preflop, meaning 'CW', I wouldn't have seen the flop with this hand.

b

Re: Thriller
 

i fold this pf. 64 isn't a great hand

1) anyway
2) against an UTG+1 raiser
3) suited with only 2 others in

where you got too, obviously, check-call. If it's 2 to you you might be stuffed but i'd grit my teeth and call. I think you're close to not being ok for pot odds in that situation.... (effective 8.5:2) with 13 outs, few clean, call it 11 outs you need 4.5:1 so with implied odds, v marginal

Re: Thriller
 

Preflop: fold. I know the suited connector is pretty but it just isn't good enough to play here.

Flop: definitely peel.

Turn: If you aren't going to c/r bluff with straight and flush draws, when will you ever make that play?

I disagree with the posters who say check and call is obvious. I think check raising is better.

Math problem -- how often does your c/r need to steal the pot to make it worth while? It depends on the frequency with which you will be reraised, and also the frequency with which you fold out one opponent but not both, so the answer is somewhat vague. But it will surely come out under 15% of the time -- and may even come out under 10%.

Basically, when you have a strong chance of drawing out, the EV loss when you don't succeed in stealing it is not that large. But the EV gain of a successful steal is still enormous. So go for it.

Re: Thriller
 

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Math problem -- how often does your c/r need to steal the pot to make it worth while? It depends on the frequency with which you will be reraised, and also the frequency with which you fold out one opponent but not both, so the answer is somewhat vague. But it will surely come out under 15% of the time -- and may even come out under 10%.

Basically, when you have a strong chance of drawing out, the EV loss when you don't succeed in stealing it is not that large. But the EV gain of a successful steal is still enormous. So go for it.


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then do the math and report back w/ results, assumtions, methodology.

Barron

Re: Thriller
 

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Is flop peel really correct? You have a gutshot and backdoor draws and little else.

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I'm getting better than 8:1 immediate odds on the call. I'm closing the action. I have four outs to the nuts. I have a backdoor flush which is worth more than one out, so I have more than five outs total getting more than 8:1. The odds are there right now, not even counting my implieds. This is a straighforward peel.

Re: Thriller Edit
 

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

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I think they will raise if they have a big K or AA, and probably knock out the HJ. So, rather than seeing the turn for 1 bet with an overlay from HJ, betting can end up causing you to pay 2 bets and loose the overlay from the HJ.

edit: note, I would bet this flop if there wasn't a pre-flop raiser.

Re: Thriller
 

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then do the math and report back w/ results, assumtions, methodology.

Barron

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Here’s a stab at the math with a WAG at ranges:

Passive hand raising ranges pflop for UTG+1:
TT-AA, AJs+, AK, AQ,AJ, KQs,

HJ 3bets JJ-AA, AKs, AQs?
Cold calls: 55-TT, AT-AK, ATs, AJs, KQs, KQ, KJs, KJ?

Board: Ks 2c 3h Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.7339 % 26.73% 00.00% { 6h4h }
Hand 2: 35.0621 % 32.76% 02.30% { TT, AJs, KQs, QTs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.2039 % 35.91% 02.30% { TT-55, AJs-ATs, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

Call it 25% equity on the turn as and estimate.
Pot on the turn = 6.5SB + 3SB = 9.5/2 = 4.25 BB
Assume hero folds the river UI..

Hero check, intending to call:
If HJ raises 7.25:2 = Fold.
Otherwise Pot on the river is 7.25BB (counting hero’s turn call)
Assume 1 BB of implied odds on the river on average when hero improves, bets, and is called by at least 1 person.
So this line = spend 2BB to win 7.25BB.
.25 x 7.25 = +1.8BB
.75 x (-1) = -.75

Check/call = +1.05BB

Chk-raise turn:
Assume no 3bet, HJ calls.
River pot = 4.25 + 6 = 10.25BB
Same assumption as above (i.e. gain 1BB on river on average):
.25 x 9.25 = +2.3 BB
.75 x (-2) = -1.5

Chk/raise = +.8 BB

When 3bet, assume CO folds for 2:
River pot = 4.25 + 7 = 11.25.
.25 x (11.25 – 3) = +2.06BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25 BB

Chk-raise/3bet = -.19.

If CO calls the turn 3bet (or 3bets and UTG+1 Calls):
.25 x (13.25 – 3) = +2.6 BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25BB
Chk-raise/3bet/CO calls = +.3 BB

So when 3bet, the 3rd player must call at least .3(x) = .2 = 66% to break even.

So, if never 3bet:
Chk-call is 1-.8 = +.2BB compared to chk-raising the turn.

So the chk-raise needs to fold both players enough to make up that .2-.3BB difference (assume .1BB loss for being 3bet).

F%(6.25) – 2(1-F%) = .3
8.25F% = 2.3
F% = 27%

You need to fold out both players something like 20-30% of the time to make chk-raising better than chk-calling If this is correct...

Re: Thriller Edit
 

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

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I think they will raise if they have a big K or AA, and probably knock out the HJ. So, rather than seeing the turn for 1 bet with an overlay from HJ, betting can end up causing you to pay 2 bets and loose the overlay from the HJ.

edit: note, I would bet this flop if there wasn't a pre-flop raiser.

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Keep in mind, I don't mind the check call on the flop. I also agree with betting the flop if there was no preflop raiser or if this was a LP open raiser I might take a stab.

In regards to the HJ, he may be gone on this flop anyways. He really has nothing to draw to. If he is staying, you may be looking at 2 bets coming back to you if you check it.

If you bet and get raised and the HJ folds, you will be getting 9-1 on your gutshot call alone. (though you do give up a bit 'effectively' for that call since you're paying 2 bets that round)

UTG isn't going to put you on the gutshot if you hit, so you're looking at collecting 4 (small)bets on the turn if you hit it. Possibly 6-8 bets if you're lucky enough that he has a set of KK.

That said, I still like check calling.

b