* Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Line opened up at Indy -3...It looks too easy to take indy...But i might just follow the sheep... Does anybody else have a take on this game?

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

If you take Indy you are headed for white water

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

ask tampa bay about laying favorites on the road. payton sucks at foxboro too.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Peyton Manning vs the crippled secondary of NE,remember when Manning struggled at Foxboro it was against all pros like Harrison and Ty Law. Now its #5 and #6 db with no name.
Even if you ignore that and look at the other side of the ball rooke LT and LG blocking Freeney, not happening. Also its not snowing yet. As long as it stays under a touchdown you should never turn down this bet

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Pass.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

I'm a diehard Pats fan, but I think the best play might be Indy on some kind of prop line where you lay like 13-17 points and get big odds.

I could just as easily see an exorcism game where the Colts finally lay the smack down on the Pats (and you know they're not letting up if they do) as I could see the game decided by a field goal either way.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Peyton could never beat Spurrier and Tennessee even lost to Spurrier last week in the game his jersey was retired. He really has never won a big game except for maybe at KC 2 years ago. He cant beat Bellichik and the Pats and especially in Foxboro on Monday Night with Bruschi in a statement game for the Pats; Brady is Money in big games with a lot on the line. I knew the last 2 years that manning would would lose to the Pats and just cause Manning and the Colts have a 7-0 record does not mean he will win this "big" game. He has to prove it too me and I'll be taking the points and a Pats win probably around 28-24. Indy's D has not really played anyone really good on Offense except for the Rams where Bulger was out for 3 quarters. Brady and the Pats can pick apart the Pats.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
Peyton could never beat Spurrier and Tennessee even lost to Spurrier last week in the game his jersey was retired. He really has never won a big game except for maybe at KC 2 years ago. He cant beat Bellichik and the Pats and especially in Foxboro on Monday Night with Bruschi in a statement game for the Pats; Brady is Money in big games with a lot on the line. I knew the last 2 years that manning would would lose to the Pats and just cause Manning and the Colts have a 7-0 record does not mean he will win this "big" game. He has to prove it too me and I'll be taking the points and a Pats win probably around 28-24. Indy's D has not really played anyone really good on Offense except for the Rams where Bulger was out for 3 quarters. Brady and the Pats can pick apart the Pats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gawd, I'd love to see that game.

Seriously, though, the Pats keep having "dynasty ending injuries", but the dynasty keeps rolling along. It's been weeks since they lost Harrison, and I don't even notice him missing in the subsequent games.

Bellichek has some sick magic at work. He must have sold his soul to the devil. Look for snow flurries on Monday night.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

I do not consistently bet on sports. Every now and then I see a line I just cannot pass up. When checking my records over the past couple years I am up. I just don't engage in the time you all put into sports betting. I guess I might be a sqaure in you all's words. But even a square can have an opinion.

and for the negative thinkers out there.... I did take a good loss on OU/TCU, but i think the world did....

Stop weighing all the small factors: Bruschi, Payton underperforming, Brady...ect. Small things (intangibles) affect betting when the game has some crucial importance. Like the notre dame/usc game carried that magnitude. This game believe it or not does not. The Colts for the first time beleive they are going to win(not just have a chance). They finally have D, for the first time in a while. They have a balanced offensive scheme that is not as vunerable to Billechek's (however it is spelled) scheming and confusion. Payton used to rely more upon his ability to make checks on the line, but now thier offense has shifted to the point where EDGE is the man in thier system. Finally New Englands pass Rush is beat up, thier secondary weakened (no Ty Law) and the best QB-WR combo in NFL history and NFL's top rusher is facing them. Point blank that is not good news for new englands D, I don't care how well coach B prepares. And offensivly The colts match up well.

The varable in this game is the same as always. Who the hell is going to show up to play? In the NFL that is the biggest determinate. With an opening line of -3 for the colts (I have not seen the most recent) is a steel. Focus on the big things. My biggest wins this year have been (ND v USC), (dallas v Phil), and (Seatle v SL). If you can think back there were some big factors that could show how these games were +EV bets.

Just the opinon of a square, take it or leave it.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

I've got NE +170.

It's New England's second consecutive home game.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Take a look at this,
Manning lost HUGH games when it was 300 degrees
below freezeing in Foxboro,this game is Mannings
game to say HEY WE ARE FOR REAL....
look for the Colts to play a statement game...
They will take this game by ALOT more than 3...
I mean heck BOSTON AND CHICAGO TAKE A WORLD SERIES...
This is no different------- Manning takes this 1.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

I posted this in another thread:

[ QUOTE ]
Take IND!!! I don't care if they are laying 21 points. This can't lose. Peyton is a god. The Colts will literally lift Gilette Stadium off the ground with their minds. Brady will throw for -400 yards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to put as much money as possible on IND. I don't think there is a spread big enough that one can put on this game.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
I posted this in another thread:

[ QUOTE ]
Take IND!!! I don't care if they are laying 21 points. This can't lose. Peyton is a god. The Colts will literally lift Gilette Stadium off the ground with their minds. Brady will throw for -400 yards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to put as much money as possible on IND. I don't think there is a spread big enough that one can put on this game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, there is, the Patriots are still a good team, they shouldn't be laid more than a TD. I don't know how the hell it's still NE-3 though, it was like last year where NE got no respect. This year, Indy has Freeney matched up against a backup O-line guy. This year, Belicheck doesn't have his defense at full strength. I'll take Manning and the points.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
I posted this in another thread:

[ QUOTE ]
Take IND!!! I don't care if they are laying 21 points. This can't lose. Peyton is a god. The Colts will literally lift Gilette Stadium off the ground with their minds. Brady will throw for -400 yards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to put as much money as possible on IND. I don't think there is a spread big enough that one can put on this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just laid 56 pts at +2000. Thanks for the tip Craig! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

I hope i;m not falling into a vegas trap..GO INDY

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I posted this in another thread:

[ QUOTE ]
Take IND!!! I don't care if they are laying 21 points. This can't lose. Peyton is a god. The Colts will literally lift Gilette Stadium off the ground with their minds. Brady will throw for -400 yards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everybody needs to put as much money as possible on IND. I don't think there is a spread big enough that one can put on this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just laid 56 pts at +2000. Thanks for the tip Craig! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I am always willing to help people out. Also, I found this prop at Pinnacle:

Will Peyton Manning walk on water: NO +1000000 Yes-1000000000000000

I parlayed the yes with:

Will Peyton Manning rush for 50 yards, throw for 45 yards, and receive for 5 yards all in the same play? I took the yes.

craig

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just laid 56 pts at +2000 and parlayed with the under. Thanks for the tip Craig! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just laid 56 pts at +2000 and parlayed with the under. Thanks for the tip Craig! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

The book tells me this parlay pays a cool +800000! What a deal. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just laid 56 pts at +2000 and parlayed with the under. Thanks for the tip Craig! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

The book tells me this parlay pays a cool +800000! What a deal. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You can get this at +810000 at matchbook, but with the commission it's really only about +793000.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this prop tonight,

Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5

He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this prop tonight,

Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5

He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Colts go up early, this is a fantastic bet. However, Dillon has been held out of practices and even games, to an extent, to be ready to play tonight. If the Pats hold a lead or keep it close throughout, I expect Corey to get 81+.

I might hedge Pats ML with Corey minus 80.5.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah...Just have a beer and watch the game...and enjoy a whipping!

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there.

craig

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

You can get Pats +3.5 +115/120 on Pinny/Matchbook...harmless +EV flier on a nice number.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage

Under 66.5 +146
Over 75.5 -125

If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise

Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite.

thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage

Under 66.5 +146
Over 75.5 -125

If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise

Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite.

thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is REALLY a lousy bet. The math points towards a risk of $237 to win a little over $9. i.e:

Bet $137 on over 75.5
Bet $100 on under 66.5

If it is under 66.5, you win $9. If it is over 75.5, you win $9.60. 67-75, you lose $237. Stay far far away.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Please call me for any future wagers you may have. I will PM my phone #.



We're going to Harvard, kids!

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]

I mean heck INDY CAN'T BEAT NE ...
This is no different------- Brady takes this 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this prop tonight,

Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5

He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, Indy is good and the "trend" of other teams playing catch up and not running the ball continues,

Corey Dillon 40 yards rushing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

and on top of that I finally won sportsbook's double your winnings contest for the 1st time in about 200 tries

Thank you for playing Double Your Winnings.

Here are your recorded answers for Week Colts vs Patriots of the NFL
Season:

Question 1: What will be the double result for the Colts/Patriots Game
on
Monday?
Your Answer: Colts win 1st half and game

Question 2: Which player will record the most receiving yards on
Monday?
Your Answer: Marvin Harrison (Colts)


Only had the dillon prop bet on the game but also had 2 NBA wins that'll get doubled [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

EASY MONEY!