Bluff this river?
 

Don't know much about opponent other than stats.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB <font color="green">(40/3/1.2/42)</font> calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Bluff this river?
 

for some reason this decision is very interesting to me. I am going to dick around with the numbers and be back in a little bit.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

Check it through. He's likely putting you on overcards and probably won't fold any pair. He is loose and could have called with a hand that has a five or six and I don't think he'll fold it. He could have a T8 or T7 and be afraid of being outkicked. He might fold a king or an ace, but I don't know if this will be his holding and happen enough to invest another bet.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

You give him 7:1 pot odds.
Do you think he can fold A-high?
Otherwise your bluff bet has some value if he folds K-high (KJ or KQ) and you win half a pot if he folds QJ.
I'm not sure but even the possibility of him folding these hands together with the big odds for the bluff make it worthwhile (?)

Re: Bluff this river?
 

Check.

I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of, A high maybe but most of these guys will fold the turn I would think. My guess is he has some pair or has just picked up a third nine.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

honestly, i would never ever bet here. but that doesn't mean im right. i just know that with my luck i will be called down whenever i bet and whenever i check he will have K high.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..

Re: Bluff this river?
 

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I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of

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Why would I want him to fold hands that I'm ahead of?

Re: Bluff this river?
 

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i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..

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Wow. I'm not saying a bet is right, but I don't agree with this statement at all. I think KQ/KJ/QJ call this river almost never.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

I'd check this. He is a loose-passive donk according to his stats and will fold a pair probably never. THere aren't that many draws on this board either. Basically you're hoping he folds unpaired A or K-high and I don't think he has those often enough AND folds them to make a bet here worth it. I think more times than 1 in 8 he has a crappy pair or even an ace he won't fold. If he has some lousy low card straight draw you're winning anyway.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of

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Why would I want him to fold hands that I'm ahead of?

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Sorry, I meant behind. I could maybe see a fold for K high or whatever but it's much more likely that he has a crappy pair or A high and would call it down. I don't see you getting a fold often enough for the bluff to work and a worse hand isn't calling.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

I was about to ask what his showdown numbers are, but after 42 hands they won't be meaningful. Someone with 40/3 preflop stats tends to be loose postflop also, so I don't think he is folding an ace if he's come this far. So does he have KQ/KJ/QJ often enough?

The way to approach this is to guess at this guy's range, and see if he has KQ/KJ/QJ more than 1/7.

My intuition says check.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

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i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..

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There surely are some overcards or busted draws that will fold this river.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

i don't play 10/20, but in my humbler limits, players w/ these stats using this line, its usually a small pair that wants to pay the minimum to show down, or an A-high that will pay a river bet hoping to split.

i don't like the fire-3-barrels-UI here also b/c when people are paying attention, I think you tend to lose some fold equity later.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

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I was about to ask what his showdown numbers are, but after 42 hands they won't be meaningful.

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The 42 is WtSD, not number of hands.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
for some reason this decision is very interesting to me. I am going to dick around with the numbers and be back in a little bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you find anything? I would be interested in numbers. I checked here and my intuition is the same as most people in the thread: that I get called by ace high or a pair too often to make betting worthwhile. It seems like it is probably close though because if my bet results in him folding a better hand even 10% of the time it is worthwhile (I don't need him to have a better hand and fold it 1 time in 8 because often he has a worse hand and folds and in those situations I'm not giving anything up by betting).

Re: Bluff this river?
 

I hate hands like this. They show no initiative, so you have no read on them. It is very suspicious that they stick around so long, and your semi-bluffs were fine until the river was a blank. Unless he picked up a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw on the turn, I'd say you're behind. Time to give up and move on to the next hand. You tried your best to maximize your chances of winning here, but it just didn't work out. Wait until you have a pair and they can pay you off. Don't be the one paying off with Q-high.

Re: Bluff this river?
 

I've started checking behind on the turn here with hands like this. If my hand were a bit stronger i'd bet and take a free SD. a bit weaker and I might fire again b/c there are more hands i'd like to fold out.

The more I think about it the less I like betting the turn against a player like this, on a board like this - unless you think he'd be capable of bluffing a hand like x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 74 or J8 on the river?

I feel like we don't have much(if any) FE on the turn...any overcard hand is either A-hi or has a gutshot/OESD to go with it... a 1 over / 1 under hand isn't calling the flop unless it has a draw to go with it (so it's not folding the turn)... and most of his connector/1gapper hands will have made a pair or a draw. PPs aren't folding, and A-hi isn't folding.

When we're ahead here on the turn we're only like 60/40 ahead(unless he's got a dominated str8 draw hand like J8) and we'll be behind quite often. Thoughts?

Surf

Re: Bluff this river?
 

How many hands? Some guys you remember seeing them calld down with K high- but i think there are some hands that will fold this river, KQ, KJ, K8, A8. He's bad so there is no telling what he will do, but he seems like hes the call with anything bad so i would lean away from betting.