Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Online 5/10.

I raise AA, only BB calls.

He check calls KT5 A board, then bets out on a Q river.

No read.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

usually the flop doesn't contain four cards, whats up here?

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

if you flopped your set, short handed, I still bet, as its possible he may be looking to c/r you, etc. Its also fishy to check behind with position on the flop.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

I think OP is saying the board is flop KT5 turn A river Q. Anyways, I don't see a problem w/ just calling. If BB is bluffing, he's not going to call your raise.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Looks like raise/fold to me.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

weird, I think calling is the only option

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t.)

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

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Looks like raise/fold to me.

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-Michael

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

IMO raising here would be real bad.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t and baronzeus)

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t and baronzeus and Surfbullet)

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Surf

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t and baronzeus and Surfbullet)<font color="blue"> </font> AND CHOBO

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FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Surf

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FYP, sir.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

I tend to raise/fold the river here against an unknown, I understand that against a TAG, raising here is likely bad, but I think on average an unknown Villain will bet here often enough w/two pair, without really thinking through that most of what you call/raise with here on this board has him beat. Do those saying call the river think that an unknown will always just check/call the river w/QT/KT/KQ/A5 etc? I've seen a weirdly played two-pair in this situation before, but maybe my default here is spewing.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Im sorry, why is everyone afraid of the gutshot getting there? Wouldn't this likely be some shitty 2 pair that you have crushed?


Unless Im seeing something incorrectly, Im raising without a second thought...

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry, why is everyone afraid of the gutshot getting there? Wouldn't this likely be some shitty 2 pair that you have crushed?


Unless Im seeing something incorrectly, Im raising without a second thought...

[/ QUOTE ]


its not really that easy. you are costing yourself money by raising this. here's why:

a) just by sheer bayes theorem, its more likely that he had a pair + gutshot on the turn and hit a straight on the river than it is that he had a pair+gutshot on the turn and hit 2 pair on the river.

b) raising and folding to a 3bet costs you more a little bit of value in two ways: one, he may fold 2 pair but he will never ever ever fold the nuts. two ,he will always 3bet with the nuts, and he may even 3bet without the nuts if he think theres a reasonable chance you are raise folding (although this is extremely unlikely). this means you gain slightly less than 2 bets when ahead and you lose slightly more than 2 bets when behind.

so in general only point 1 is needed to make it a call instead of a raise, but point 2 is even more reason.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Its not the gutshot, its the 2pair

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

Nevermind, I just realized what I was looking at... I call at 5/10...

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

EDIT: I see now. I just can't read.

Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
 

[ QUOTE ]
just by sheer bayes theorem, its more likely that he had a pair + gutshot on the turn and hit a straight on the river than it is that he had a pair+gutshot on the turn and hit 2 pair on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice. This is a very astute point I don't recall ever seeing posted before.