I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

I tried multitabling them 4 nights. Played about 9 of them each time. I can run 7 windows on Stars, and I signed up for new ones as I busted out of some early.

I had a total net loss of $60. I didn't make any top 5 finishes in 35 tournaments. It may be partly variance, since one top 3 finish would have given me an acceptable overall result. With 40 players left, I was usually around #20 in the tournaments I was still in. I was rarely in the top 5 or top 10 at any stage.

The early action is these is pretty loose. Last night, I tripled up when with the blinds 25/50 there was a raise to 250 and a call. I pushed for 1500 and got called by A6s and K7s.

Later on, the play seems reasonably tough. I wonder if these are more difficult than the typical $20 MTT.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Likely just variance. I thought they were some of the easiest fields I had ever played in. The structure is really good imo

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

They will be much easier to play if you let your stack dwindle until you are in the red zone. Then you can play lots more hands and its easier to double up.

You may also not be continuation calling enough.

-g [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

4 nights is probably a big enough sample to determine your win rate. I think you should give up.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

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Posts: 3680

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And you still don't understand sample size?

C'mon, man. Those results mean nothing. Like, pretty much, absolutely nothing. Don't worry about it.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

I'm pretty sure you're just running bad. I played 4 last night, and found the play pretty bad in all of them. You just have to have one tournament where you have a couple decent hands and they hold up. I had one, where I doubled up with top set vs middle pair, then top and bottom pair vs bottom 2, and after that I could play a nice big stack game. In the other 3, I took a bad beat, had trips top kicker vs a boat, and got no cards and eventually lost a coin flip with 40 left.

Example of how bad the play is even late. At the final table, with 7 left, I was the short stack with 24k, blinds 1k/2k. I pushed 55 in MP and the guy right behind me called 70% of his stack with QhJh. Now I was pushing a lot on the button and in the small blind, but I'm pretty sure my range from this position with 12xBB has QJs beat pretty bad. There were other similarly bad plays even after this hand, as well as a mix of guys who were way too passive and guys who weve overaggressive.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

I will keep trying some more. I had an awful lot of late bust outs with bad beats or running into big hands. It may just be luck. With the big money in the top places, the variance is way higher than 5-table SNGs.

It is also possible I am thinking of these too much like SNGs and worrying more than I usually would about cashing and final tabling. This seems to show from my results of a lot of 2nd tables and 2nd half of final tables. I think I have to play more according to my usually MTT style of playing to win.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Looks like I'm in one w/you now.

I agree w/most posters who attribute the slump to variance. It doesn't seem that way, but 180 is a fairly large field (small compared to many mega MTTs, but still big enough to have plenty of landmines to dodge. Well, here's hoping we make it to heads up.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like I'm in one w/you now.


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I'm directly on his right. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Edit: And I'm donking it up...

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Happy now? a 4th and at least a 2nd.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Example of how bad the play is even late. At the final table, with 7 left, I was the short stack with 24k, blinds 1k/2k. I pushed 55 in MP and the guy right behind me called 70% of his stack with QhJh. Now I was pushing a lot on the button and in the small blind, but I'm pretty sure my range from this position with 12xBB has QJs beat pretty bad.

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You do realize that you're a slight underdog in this hand, right? Also, he may have figured you wouldn't push AA, AK, KK, QQ, and maybe not AQ/AJ/KQ/JJ. You probably want action on them (at least the 1st 4), you don't want to just fold everyone out. With 55 you usually don't want a call. Giving you a fairly tight range he's less than a 60/40 underdog, but maybe he had a better read on you than you think, or maybe he saw you steal so often he figured you for a super LAG who could push with anything. He could have been a total donk, but this wasn't a terrible call.

41,095,296 games 0.150 secs 273,968,640 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.8547 % 50.52% 00.33% { QJs }
Hand 2: 49.1453 % 48.81% 00.33% { 55 }
---
643,826,304 games 1.342 secs 479,751,344 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.5769 % 41.08% 00.50% { QJs }
Hand 2: 58.4231 % 57.92% 00.50% { JJ-44, AJs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo }

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

QJs is slightly ahead of 55. However, as you analyzed, it is significantly behind hero's pushing range. So villain is definately a little behind even with pot odds. However, the worst thing about the call is that someone behind them could call with a big hand that dominates QJs.

It is possible villain really wants to gamble and take one of the top places. Villain may also have misread hero and may not understand the play of pushing with a pp or strong high cards from mid position and think hero is a maniac who may have a weak hand. He may also read that hero would only do this with a low to medium pp and he is slightly ahead plus pot odds.

It is not a good call, but I have seen much worse plays.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

How long do you people think is the long run in these?

Assuming Stars runs these fulltime somewhere down the line I plan to try to play 12 a day. So 84 per week. I would like to come ahead $1k each week. How long should I take before I evaluate my performance and if I'm running bad/good? I think that $1k may be a little low as well but I'm not greedy.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

i can't find these on stars, i'm terrible at the stars lobby. can someone give me a clue?

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

they only run for 2 hours a night. they'll be at the top int he tourney/regular section (and i think the SNG section also)

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Tourney-ALl
they are the first ones on top, at night

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Played in a few. Finished ITM twice, on the bubble once, and outside the money once. Had bad beats in all of them that crippled or eliminated me. Perhaps I need to take more chances to get a bigger stack earlier on.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

Same here betgo...Only played a few so it means nothing, but Im always just ITM or out early...there's some pretty bad play though.

Re: I can\'t beat the 20-table SNGs
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Example of how bad the play is even late. At the final table, with 7 left, I was the short stack with 24k, blinds 1k/2k. I pushed 55 in MP and the guy right behind me called 70% of his stack with QhJh. Now I was pushing a lot on the button and in the small blind, but I'm pretty sure my range from this position with 12xBB has QJs beat pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that you're a slight underdog in this hand, right? Also, he may have figured you wouldn't push AA, AK, KK, QQ, and maybe not AQ/AJ/KQ/JJ. You probably want action on them (at least the 1st 4), you don't want to just fold everyone out. With 55 you usually don't want a call. Giving you a fairly tight range he's less than a 60/40 underdog, but maybe he had a better read on you than you think, or maybe he saw you steal so often he figured you for a super LAG who could push with anything. He could have been a total donk, but this wasn't a terrible call.

41,095,296 games 0.150 secs 273,968,640 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.8547 % 50.52% 00.33% { QJs }
Hand 2: 49.1453 % 48.81% 00.33% { 55 }
---
643,826,304 games 1.342 secs 479,751,344 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.5769 % 41.08% 00.50% { QJs }
Hand 2: 58.4231 % 57.92% 00.50% { JJ-44, AJs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo }


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Calling 70% of his stack with QJs is a bad call, no other way about it...hero could turn over 23o and it doesnt make it any better a call...your logic about QJs being slightly ahead of hero's 55 is wrong...i think you know that.