Hand I think I played well
 

I'm looking for opinions on how I played this hand. I think I played it well, but I'm looking for other thoughts.

I'm in the CO with 55. One MP limper to me. I call, button raises. BB calls, MP and I call.

Flop comes: 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to the Button who bets. We all call. I put the button on overcards, probably AK or AQs. I think there is a decent chance I'm ahead here. I think about check-raising the turn if another small non-flush card comes up. But I won't push anyone out that way. so I figure I'll just bet out instead.

Turn: 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

Ok, checked around to me, I bet. button calls, BB folds, MP calls.

River: 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]

Well, no flush, which is good. Anyone holding an eight has me smoked. Anyone holding a 9 might fold, afraid I have an eight.

So I bet. All fold.

I'm trying not to justify my play because I won. So I'm looking for some objective opinions on my play.

Should I have check-raised the flop?

Thanks

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I like to make plays similar to this on occasion when I have a medium pair and rags flop. The specific approach is somewhat position dependent. I think that you played it OK.

There are some other approachs as well:

1. If you think that the PFR will raise your flop bet even with overcards, betting out the flop and having BB and MP face 2 bets is a good way to keep many overcards from beating you.

2. You could checkraise the flop and plan to lead the turn if the button doesn't 3-bet and no A, K or Q comes.

Of course, bet the river.

Is this a test?!
 

Hard to believe your post is serious--seems more like a gag.

Let's pretend you *are* serious. In that case I don't like your flop call at all. You don't say what the limit is or what the texture of the game was, but I see weak low-limit players make this sort of speculative play with small pocket pairs all the time and they get punished badly. You got a fortunate result this time, but that is not what should drive your thinking.

There are eight small bets in the pot, so you're not getting the odds to turn a set; someone could easily be slowplaying two pair or a flopped set; there are straight draws and flush draws on the board, and passive players will not bet these but will call with them. Even if you turn a set your five may give someone a straight. If the 5 of diamonds falls someone may make a flush. Basically you have no clean outs, just your small pair which you pray by some miracle holds up. Meanwhile you are hoping the button has overcards only, but he could easily have a pair bigger than yours. How do you figure you have positive expectation here?

By the way your preflop limp was marginal. If everyone after you doesn't limp in, you are not getting the right odds for making your set long-term, and a pair of fives does not do well by itself against more than one opponent. Probably should have folded there, though it's close.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

whats with the growing popularity ive seen in some posts about going for a C/R from the CO?

you have 1 player to depend on to bet. that's it, ONE. you better be damn sure he's aggressive enough to bet it. on this board he could easily check it through.

save the c/r for an earlier position with more players behind you.

doubtful youll get a 9 to fold here. top pair isnt going anywhere. you probably have the best hand as everyone missed their overcard/flush/str8 draw.

b

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

You played it just fine.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

so how was my play ?

I didn't check-raise. I just brought it up for discussion. I dind't like the C/R either.

-Scott

Re: Is this a test?!
 

Hi John,

When someone is asking for input on their play, is it really appropriate to be insulting?

I look at your number of posts and can now easily disregard your comments as a rood noob (new term folks?)

Yes, my post is serious, no its not a gag.

And I can't recall the last time I so disagreed so strongly with someone's assessment.

Do me a favor, skip over my posts from now on, ok?

Thanks

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I think a better play would be to bet this flop, if you're set on trying to push this guy off his overcards. Checkraising is a bad play, I think, because it just ties the early players into the pot. You want to get it heads up with the raiser.

Re: Is this a test?!
 

Wow, I don't recall reading any of your posts, but this one makes you sound like a complete jackass. We're here to help each other out, not to ridicule anyone who is bold enough to post questionable hands.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I think you misplayed every street except the river.

Preflop - I would either raise or fold. I don't like the limp because you are going to end up with four-way action. This is a hand that would like heads-up or multiway action. If I didn't think a raise would eliminate the blinds, I would fold.

Flop - 11:1 isn't enough to call here, even with you closing the action, even if one of your 5's is a diamond (you didn't say), and even if catching a 5 could not give someone else a straight (which it can in this case). You seem to think that just because the button might have overcards that you have a good chance of being ahead. What about the other two players? There is a strong possibility that one or both of them has you beat. I realize they could both be on draws, given the texture of the board, but it is likely one of them is ahead of you. If I were going to continue with the hand, I would bet into the preflop raiser and hope that he raised with his overcards to clear the field for me.

Turn - Again, I would check-fold. Why did you bet? Were you hoping that the button would call with his overcards and that the other players would have difficulty overcalling with hands like second pair?

River - I like the bet, but not because someone might fold a 9. No one is going to fold a 9 -- no way, no how. The button almost definitely has overcards. Do you think he will call a bet? If so, then you should certainly bet. Also, if you bet and the button calls, BB will be less likely to overcall with a hand like 77 or A4. Then again, if you check you will probably get a free showdown, which could be good since there's a decent chance that BB has you beat. All-in-all, I like betting better, but not by much.

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I must have learned nothing in the past year because I think he misplayed the hand at almost every opportunity.

Can you provide your thought process? Why do you like each of his decisions?

-- Thanks, Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I'm not sure I want to push him off his overcards. I'm happy to let him call. I have him beat. The chance of him hitting a pair after the flop are quite low. So I'm getting the best of him if he calls me. I do want the others to fold though as I'm having trouble putting them on a hand.

And I think the turn bet shows more strength than a flop bet. People lead out on the flop with all kinds of stuff. But I think betting in to a guy who raised preflop AND bet the flop shows more strength, and hence will get more respect. I think it looks less like a "play" and more like a hand.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I'm not sure I want to push him off his overcards. I'm happy to let him call. I have him beat. The chance of him hitting a pair after the flop are quite low. So I'm getting the best of him if he calls me.

Actually, you do want to push him off his overcards. If he knew what you had then he would be making a mistake by not calling a flop bet. Hence, you should want him to fold (think FTOP).

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Hiya Homer,

It was nice sitting with you for a bit last night on Party.

I appreciate your response. I like to see a dissenting point of view to keep me thinking.

It seems people are pretty polarized, either liking or hating my play.

But I really disagree with your preflop idea. I love any pocket pair with 3 or more callers. The implied odds are there to shoot for the set.

I bet the turn as I felt the I had the best hand, that the overcards would call, and the drawing hands would call. As long as the flush or big card didn't get there, I felt I had a good chance to pull this pot down. Now granted with 89 there was also a straight draw out, and its tougher to tell if that got there sometimes. But then when the river paired, no flush or straight made it for sure. So I think the river bet was a value bet.

I think my 5's would be good there often enough (say, 40%?) to make the play +EV.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Homer, for what it's worth I agree with most of what you said, especially preflop.

I'm anxiously awaiting Clarkmeister's response to see if he can change my mind like he often does.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

But I really disagree with your preflop idea. I love any pocket pair with 3 or more callers. The implied odds are there to shoot for the set.

I agree with Homer. Remember, you are going to lose bets without hitting a set many times. If someone showed you a 9 on the river in this hand, how would that 3 big bet loss you took without flopping a set make your implied odds look? Also, you will lose sometimes when you do flop a set, and you are going to lose a lot those times.

Add it up and I think you need more than one limper in front of you to call with a small pair. I think raising preflop is probably the best play in that spot.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Ok homer, you're going to make me do math.

On the flop there are 47 unseen cards. 6 help his hand. so the odds of him catching a pair are 1-(41/47 X 39/46)

That comes out to 0.26 or 26% chance he's going to hit. Also remember he can hit and I can hit to win so his actual chance of winning is a bit less.

So for every dollar I put in the pot, I'm +EV $0.74

Also remember if a big card falls I check-fold so he has no implied odds whatsoever.

I also like the bet on the turn because many people check their overcards when they miss on the turn and there are 3 callers in the pot with them.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

This is a typical loose online 2-4 table.

That raise has a good chance of getting NO respect. (something like 34% seeing the flop) The blinds had been playing a lot of hands, as had much of the table. I didn't feel that a raise would isolate the limper. In fact, I felt the hand would be 3-4 way regardless of if I raised or not. So the raise is a bad move in this spot. Even if just one player calls after me and I'm in with 55 I'm in deep trouble 3-way and -EV on the play. So I'd rather see the flop cheap, then determine my best course of action.

On a 5-10 table I'm raising with 55 and one MP limper. Not on 2-4 though.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

From a logical standpoint

If you bet into him he's getting 9:1 on the call, and his odds against improving are 39:6, or 6.5:1. Hence, he has an easy call if he knows what you have. Logically then, since calling is correct for him, you should want him to fold.

From a mathematical standpoint

(To make analysis easier let's assume it's heads-up with you and Mr. Overcards)

-- Case 1 - You bet the flop and he folds.

EV = 8 small bets

You win the 8 small bet pot 100% of the time.

-- Case 2 - You bet the flop and he calls.

EV = 7.67 small bets

6/45 times he will win the pot and you will lose 1 small bet.
39/45 times you will win the pot and will win 9 small bets.

On average, you will win (6/45)*-1 + (39/45)*9 = 7.67 small bets

Also, keep in mind that since you can't really see his cards he will steal the pot at times even when he doesn't hit, so your EV will be even lower. For example, if a Q comes on the turn, he will bet when checked to, even when he has AK or AJs.

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Based on this argument, it seems that you should fold.

I alluded to this in my initial response...if you can't get it heads-up with a raise you should probably fold.

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

In fact, I felt the hand would be 3-4 way regardless of if I raised or not.

You say 34% of the table was seeing each flop, so on average 3 or 4 players were seeing each flop. So then, how can you also expect 3 or 4 players to see the flop after 5 have already folded and you raise one limper? That doesn't seem quite right to me.

So the raise is a bad move in this spot. Even if just one player calls after me and I'm in with 55 I'm in deep trouble 3-way and -EV on the play.

If you admit that seeing the flop 3 handed is "deep trouble", then why would you limp when you expect 3 or 4 to see the lfop? I know it's going to cost you one less small bet by limping (hopefully), but if it's a bad hand 3 or 4 ways, it's a bad hand 3 or 4 ways.

If I'm going to see a flop in an unfavorable situation, I'd rather see it with the momentum of being the aggressor.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

You people are screwed up. Just giving up here with "3rd pair" here is giving up too much. The flop almost certainly didn't help a preflop raiser and there's more than a good chance that you have the best hand with two "small overcards". Its crucial you bet this flop. How many times have you read in books and on this board to not check to preflop raisers in multiway pots? If you're going to call a bet here find a bet yourself. If not check and fold.

I agree with your assessment of preflop play and don't think it matters much either way if you raise or fold based on table conditions. You'd know better than us, you were at the table.

I hate your river bet. There is no value to it. A better hand will call every time with the possible exceptions of 77 & 66 specifically - but they'll probably still call. A worse hand will almost always fold. Do you really think AK is going to call a river bet here after your "surprise" show of strength on the turn? Doubtful. Check it down.

Grow a pair people sheesh. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I haven't said anything about the flop play, but I agree with you. I think betting is MUCH better than checking and calling.

Re: Is this a test?!
 

Mr. Biggs was perhaps a touch rude. But I agree with his points. I think limping is fine in the cut off, bad luck getting raised behind. But "no set, no bet" with a small pocket pair is the rule of thumb, especially when you aren't head up. I think your play from the flop on has significant negative expectation over time.

Full disclosure: Biggs is a friend and a very solid low limit he player (I've sat with him on several occasions).

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Vehn, think back to low limits and players who play many hands and make MANY more calling errors than folding errors. They will (and did) call you to the river with any hope at all. You will rarely be able to win uncalled. Given that there are three other players, and he only has fives, do you still think a flop bet in this type of game (where there is little semi-bluff value) is worthwhile?

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

It's better than check-calling but still not worthwhile. There are times to bet bottom/third pair but this isn't one of them.

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

6/45 times he will win the pot and you will lose 1 small bet.
39/45 times you will win the pot and will win 9 small bets.

Seems like you're arguing for my bet now.

Also I'm not head's up. this means its possible that the bet is correct for me, AND the call is correct for him.

-Scott

Apologies to Scott
 

Didn't mean to attack you personally; sorry it came off that way. I've seen your posts before, so you're obviously serious about the game. My comments apply only to the play of the hand, which I still question. But I'd be happy to hear your rebuttal, and would be pleased if I learned something from it.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

If you admit that seeing the flop 3 handed is "deep trouble", then why would you limp when you expect 3 or 4 to see the lfop? I know it's going to cost you one less small bet by limping (hopefully), but if it's a bad hand 3 or 4 ways, it's a bad hand 3 or 4 ways.

3- way with 55 when I paid two bets to play is horrible.

Clearly there is a difference between 3-way for one bet versus two bets? Also remember that by not betting you encourage loose callers to call, thereby increasing the chance for it to be Four way.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

You said

"I'm not sure I want to push him off his overcards. I'm happy to let him call. I have him beat. The chance of him hitting a pair after the flop are quite low. So I'm getting the best of him if he calls me. I do want the others to fold though as I'm having trouble putting them on a hand."

I said

No, you want him to fold to a flop bet because from his perspective it is correct to call. Btw, here's some math to back it up....

You said

(Quoting me)
"6/45 times he will win the pot and you will lose 1 small bet.
39/45 times you will win the pot and will win 9 small bets."

(You)
Seems like you're arguing for my bet now.

I say

My argument had nothing to do with whether you should bet the flop or not. It had to do with whether you would like your opponent, who you assume to be on overcards, to call. I'm not sure why you're quoting my math in your response. How does this make it seem like I'm arguing that you should bet? I'm simply stating that you want your opponent to fold. You aren't getting the best of him if he calls. You'd like him to fold immediately.

-- Homer

By the way, I agree with Homer\'s post -
 

... he described it more fully, accurately, and politely than I did.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

hate your river bet. There is no value to it. A better hand will call every time with the possible exceptions of 77 & 66 specifically - but they'll probably still call. A worse hand will almost always fold. Do you really think AK is going to call a river bet here after your "surprise" show of strength on the turn? Doubtful. Check it down.

Hi vehn,

Thanks for your view.

I do actually see AK call on occasion in a spot like this.

I have also seen many people with big overcards take a shot - with position - at a board like this, when someone has bet a previous street and now checks.

If I check (show weakness) and he bets, then my play on the river becomes unclear to me. Do I call to snap off his ace-high? did I misread his hand? What if another calls as well?

So the bet prevents him from taking a shot at the pot, and makes my play essentially easy. Not a good enough reason?

Also I think the bet gives people an opportunity to fold, which in this situation I like.

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

As usual, Homer states his reasoning very well.

I'd like to add that even if the button were calling incorrectly with overcards, you, Scott, are not likely the recipient of that EV, according to Morton's Theorem. You might do better if he folded correctly if the MP (or whoever's left in the hand on the turn) has a draw to beat you both.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Well, we never seem to agree on anything, but I actually agree with this! [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Also I think the bet gives people an opportunity to fold, which in this situation I like.

Read my post again. A better hand will never fold. So who are you giving "the opportunity to fold" to? Why do you want worse hands folding? You're not thinking about it the right way here.

If he bets the river then you have an easy call given that he didn't raise the turn bet. If he checks the river with a better hand then you saved a bet. Generally this is a classic situation where you will only be called when beaten. Of course there is some "don't have to show cards" equity but its not the kind you can stack or exchange for sex with waitresses.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

well homey, now you really have me confused! we agreed on something? wow.

Of course you know the bet on the river won't work WITHOUT the bet on the turn...

-Scott

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

I agree, but that still doesn't mean that I agree that betting the turn and river is betting than check-folding the turn. :-)

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

He put his opponent on a hand, he played the hand in a way that he could confirm his read, and then he followed through, and acted on it. That seems like he played poker to me.

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

The problem is that he had three opponents in this hand. He put the button on a hand, but he never mentioned his other two opponents (who both called the flop bet).

-- Homer

Re: Hand I think I played well
 

Of course there is some "don't have to show cards" equity but its not the kind you can stack or exchange for sex with waitresses.

.... or buy a $700 cat with. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]