royal draw - 100NL
 

party 100NL 6 max, 6 handed

i have been playing LAG, using position and bullying the table. i havent shown many hands. CO is new to the table, UTG is 62/6 after about 150 hands.

me (button) - $286
CO - $70
UTG - $150

UTG calls, fold, CO calls, i rase to $4 with JsQs, blinds fold, UTG & CO call.

flop ~$14 Ts 8c Ks
both check, i bet $10, both call

turn~$45 Jc
UTG checks, CO bets $50, i.... ???

i'm confused here. if i call, i have to worry about UTG coming along too. should i push to get UTG out of the hand? (CO has $5 left after his turn bet) should i consider folding?

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

I'd raise more PF after two limpers and bet more on the flop. I push this turn.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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I'd raise more PF after two limpers and bet more on the flop. I push this turn.

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I agree that the PFR needs to be ~$6. Why push this turn though?

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

You are on a draw, why would you want UTG to fold?

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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You are on a draw, why would you want UTG to fold?

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because i don't want to play a 3-way pot with just a draw... especially after that nasty turn card.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

Push the turn to get UTG out. He called on the flop, so he's got something. You want him to fold because he could be drawing to the nut flush draw, so if you make your flush on the river, you're in trouble. If he's got trips and the board pairs on the river with a J or 8s, you're in trouble. If he's got some kind of ace and a queen falls, you're in trouble. He could have something like KcQc, so Ac on the river would get you in trouble...

A lot of stuff he's calling with could get you in trouble. So you want him to fold.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

I agree you want UTg out of the hand but what about CO? You arent folding him and he obviosuly likes his hand. He may already have the straight which means you quite possibly could be chopping if that comes in so you are basically drawing to the flush. I think I am dumping this without a read

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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I agree you want UTg out of the hand but what about CO? You arent folding him and he obviosuly likes his hand. He may already have the straight which means you quite possibly could be chopping if that comes in so you are basically drawing to the flush. I think I am dumping this without a read

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Read OP. He only has $5 left.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

I know he has only $5 left your point being?

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

So you'd rather play a 2-way pot with just a draw? Doesn't make sense.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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So you'd rather play a 2-way pot with just a draw? Doesn't make sense.

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The hand is worth fifty dollars to see a flop given your monster draw. You still could have outs against the CO for two pair, along with your straight and flush draws. Against the UTG, your flush draws are now a possible danger, so you want him out.

Since CO only has five bucks left you only have to worry about playing past the fifty bucks with one player, UTG. And a push, given his check, could very well push him out, especially so since its a very strong re-raise in front of strong aggression from CO.

I agree. Push the turn. But you should have bet more on the flop.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

Calling is essentially commiting $70 (neither of you will fold the river for ony the $20 he has left.

So, you are (or will be) commiting 70 to win ~$115. Roughly 1.5-1 pot odds.

You are surely behind with your Q high at this point and are drawing to 5 nut outs, and 7 spades for a non-nut flush. Even if you count em all, you are 4-1 dog.

This is not counting the fact that you have UTG to act after you. Lets see if Your read on him really is all that important.

If you put him on the nut flush draw, you have just eliminated 7 of your 12 outs. Will he fold? If he does, you just got your money in as a 3 or 4-1 dog getting 1.5-1 on your money.

If he calls with a worse flush draw, you are getting better odds, but not good enough.

I think a fold is in order.

Yet, in the heat of the battle...looking at my draw....not sure Id lay it down either.

jw

Do not look at this as so much of a royal draw as a math problem a

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is essentially commiting $70 (neither of you will fold the river for ony the $20 he has left.

So, you are (or will be) commiting 70 to win ~$115. Roughly 1.5-1 pot odds.

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where are you getting these numbers? when he bets $50, i'm getting about 2:1...

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

11 billion outs. I wouldnt push, but I'd come over the top pretty big.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

I call here. You're about a 2-1 dog and you're getting proper odds although you can't gurantee your 3 9s are clean outs as CO may hold AQ. I don't worry about pushing the UTG out of the hand. He is getting 3-1 odds and if he's drawing he is likely a 4-1 dog at best. He doesn't really have any implied odds unless he has the but flush draw because you won't pay him off if you don't make your hand. This is a slight possibility and I simply wouldn't worry about it. He is a very loose player and has a wide hand range here. He could have a T, a K, 2 pair, flush draw, OESD, or a gut shot str8 draw. A loose player like this can also often be very tough to push out of the pot as they don't think logically. A push here is simply too risky without a lot of reward. Call and hope for the best. Clearly you call his $5 regardless on the river even if you know you're beat. The information alone if worth it and there's always a chance he's a donk trying to run some outrageous bluff

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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11 billion outs. I wouldnt push, but I'd come over the top pretty big.

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11 billion? 2 outs for the nuts, 7 more for the flush. after the $50 turn bet, i'm pretty sure the remaining J's and Q's won't give me the winner.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

Not quite 11 blillion. It's probably more like 15 and it may not even be that high because CO could have AQ for the nut str8. I certainly don't count Qs and Js as outs here. They may be clean outs but you have to be conservative when counting outs. Qs would put the board 1 off a str8 & only give you 2 pair. A J gives you a set which may lose to an already made str8 or it may fill someone up w/ a boat. If you overdue it when counting outs you will get yourself in a lot of trouble.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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I call here. You're about a 2-1 dog and you're getting proper odds although you can't gurantee your 3 9s are clean outs as CO may hold AQ. I don't worry about pushing the UTG out of the hand. He is getting 3-1 odds and if he's drawing he is likely a 4-1 dog at best. He doesn't really have any implied odds unless he has the but flush draw because you won't pay him off if you don't make your hand. This is a slight possibility and I simply wouldn't worry about it. He is a very loose player and has a wide hand range here. He could have a T, a K, 2 pair, flush draw, OESD, or a gut shot str8 draw. A loose player like this can also often be very tough to push out of the pot as they don't think logically. A push here is simply too risky without a lot of reward. Call and hope for the best. Clearly you call his $5 regardless on the river even if you know you're beat. The information alone if worth it and there's always a chance he's a donk trying to run some outrageous bluff

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my thoughts exactly

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

And my suggestion of a big bet here is pretty stupid too. Its push or or nothing. Why not call here? You can reassess on the next round - and even if you miss, maybe make a bluff at it.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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And my suggestion of a big bet here is pretty stupid too. Its push or or nothing. Why not call here? You can reassess on the next round - and even if you miss, maybe make a bluff at it.

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assuming UTG comes along and i miss the river, bluffing would be suicide.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

Well sure. Even im not dumb enough to try to bluff 2 people out with a busted draw... and I make some pretty dumb moves. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

RESULTS
 

turn~$45 Jc
UTG checks, CO bets $50, i call, UTG folds

river Ah
CO pushes for $5, i obviously call.

he had Qc9c and we chop the pot

after co bets the turn and i call, UTG is getting 3:1 on his call.

pushing this turn seems like the best play, given that i have outs to the nuts and CO has no more money left. agree?

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

He also has jacks, which give another two outs. I could see Villain pushing that turn with two pair to punish your missed turn card.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

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He also has jacks, which give another two outs. I could see Villain pushing that turn with two pair to punish your missed turn card.

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in this hand, it is wrong to assume that my jack and queen outs are any good.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

You are not going to win this pot unless you improve, in which case you are going to win regardless of whether UTG comes or not (discounting the idea that UTG has nut or K-high flush draw, which seems somewhat unlikely, but possible). You want as much money in the post as possible to make the draw more correct.

In reality, chances are low UTG has anything worth calling this anyway. In terms of EV, probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold here since CO is out of money. I don't care for a push though.

Re: royal draw - 100NL
 

It doesn't seem like anyone is trying to put CO on a hand and base your decision on that?

What hand takes that line that you think Hero should call against.

To me his line looks like trying to get sneaky with 88 on the flop. When that turn card comes that board is so nasty he now feels like he needs to protect it.

If he has 88 you're getting a little worse than 2:1 which makes the call close but wrong.

I don't know how anyone could put him on what he actually had there, the 2nd nut straight plus a flush draw but against that hand you're a 3:1 dog which makes the call wrong.

No matter how you slice UTGs play it still boils down to a fold. If he comes along it gives you better pot odds but eliminates a ton of your outs.

Re: RESULTS
 

His call subsidizes you, your call doesn't subsidize him.