Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

Pretty much just making this post to prove a point to my friend that came over this weekend and shared a $20 MTT buyin with me. He wanted to play a game on Stars (his first online tourney ever). I said we'll split it and I'll let you play to get your feet wet. As I'm watching him I see that he's calling $400 bets after the turn into a $800 pot with a gutshot straight, and also see him calling a $1000 bet after the turn into a $2300 pot with a open ender. His reasons were, "you have to go with your gut!" I say no you play the odds. If you are getting 1.2-1 odds and you have a 5-1 shot of making it you cannot call! Then he called an all in after the turn with 9 10 of spades (called getting a little over 2-1) w/ 2 spades on the board and caught the flush and said, "see you have to trust your instincts." Tried to explain he'll go broke that way and wouldn't listen to me. I want to be able to send him this link to show him.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

(his first online tourney ever)

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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(his first online tourney ever)

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My 31 year old friend also just got his first cell phone and first credit card. He plays live tourneys.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

If I had a nickel for every time he said, "Where are these cards coming from"...

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

If hes that good, he should consider becoming a professional blackjack player.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

on line tournamnents and live tournaments are not the same if for no other reason than you can play 40 of them in 1 day (assuming you are multi-tabling etc...). this player may think he is pretty good in brick & mortar play, but their is nothing like experience. on line poker brings you a LOT of experience.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

You know the answer to this.

We play poker because we believe in the laws of probability. The laws of probability are unproven but have ridiculous amounts of empirical data to back them up. If your friend's gut is correct often enough to make those calls profitable, he should be a rich man by now.

It's really hard to actually accept probability, and therefore everyone expects specific cards to fall. Everyone is wrong, and probability is right.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

I don't know why I am even bothering with this but...

Don't go half-sies in any more tournaments with this guy. When you have T high and a flush draw, you call because the odds are correct, not to "go with your instincts". Obviously his Ten high was not good, and he caught to win. If he had called an all-in with Ten high and had the other guy dominated, well then, he's the best player in the world.

Tell your friend that when he says he's: "going with his instincts" what he means is: "I have this magical feeling that the card I need is coming". Which of course is crazy, since in online poker, the next card coming off the deck hasn't even been determined until after you have made your decision.

I wouldn't take pointers from this guy either.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

Next time he wants to share a tournament with you say no.

When he asks why?

Tell him you're "going with your gut".

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

i like this response the best. ditto.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

Always play with your gut instinct. I don't think anyone can become a great player by just playing the odds, and I believe a strong instinct can be developed through reliance.

Gut instinct is about reading your opponent's hand, and predicting his behaviour, it has nothing to do with guessing what card will come off the deck.

Your friend needs to UNDERSTAND the difference between the outcome and the hand, which is the basis for expected value.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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You know the answer to this.

We play poker because we believe in the laws of probability. The laws of probability are unproven but have ridiculous amounts of empirical data to back them up. If your friend's gut is correct often enough to make those calls profitable, he should be a rich man by now.

It's really hard to actually accept probability, and therefore everyone expects specific cards to fall. Everyone is wrong, and probability is right.

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Hey i put at the beginning this post was just to prove a point to him> I want him to read this and see why he was wrong. It's driving me insane the way he thinks.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

"I'm going with my gut"

=

"i'm not disciplined enough to fold when i know i should"

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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I don't know why I am even bothering with this but...

Don't go half-sies in any more tournaments with this guy. When you have T high and a flush draw, you call because the odds are correct, not to "go with your instincts". Obviously his Ten high was not good, and he caught to win. If he had called an all-in with Ten high and had the other guy dominated, well then, he's the best player in the world.

Tell your friend that when he says he's: "going with his instincts" what he means is: "I have this magical feeling that the card I need is coming". Which of course is crazy, since in online poker, the next card coming off the deck hasn't even been determined until after you have made your decision.

I wouldn't take pointers from this guy either.

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I don't think I made myself clear. Sorry for the vague post. I have been playing for a year and a half. I play online everyday. He came over and wanted to play online. I said I'd give you half. I just want to send him this post so he understands he can't play that way.. Because obviously he wouldn't listen to me. I know the answer to this question but he doesnt'.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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Next time he wants to share a tournament with you say no.

When he asks why?


LOLOLOL [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Tell him you're "going with your gut".

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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

ok, hes using his "gut instinct" to reason for those wacked calls? its just an excuse as i see it.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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ok, hes using his "gut instinct" to reason for those wacked calls? its just an excuse as i see it.

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When I took over I looked at the stats.. Flops seen 28-81 34%... LOL.. Im usually between 14-18%.. I guess just a learning experience for him.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

i really believe that you CAN NOT make an inexeperienced player understand pot odds, implied odds, position, EV etc... an inexperienced player just wants to get involved in the hands and "gut instinct" is really just a lack of discipline made worse by a lack of experience.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

A long time ago there was a study on pro freethrows and how they followed random patterns exactly. I don't remember the details but the point is that since randomness seems to follow patterns of things that we can control, people tend to think that they can control random events.

Unfrotunately for you're friend it will be very difficult to convince him otherwise but fortunately for the rest of us it is very difficult to convince some people otherwise.

Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
 

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Gut instinct is about reading your opponent's hand, and predicting his behaviour, it has nothing to do with guessing what card will come off the deck.

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Precisely. Your instincts have been honed from years of playing poker; you may not understand why you feel a certain way about your opponent's holding, but if your instincts are well-trained you may subconsciously recognize something that tips you off that you have the best hand or what have you.

But that's the people part of the game. Your "gut instinct" can't predict the next card. That's just silly. If you could predict the future you could be doing much better things with those powers than playing poker.