Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

This hand blew. Comments on my play? Anyone give up betting on seventh? Sixth?

7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___raises

5th Street - (3.50 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.50 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.50 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (9.50 BB)

Results in white...you know the drill.

<font color="white">Results:
Total pot $570 | Rake $3

Seat 4: [8h 5c 8c 9h 3d Th Js] (a pair of Eights)

Hero: [6c Tc 3c Kc Ah 5d Qs] (high card Ace)


</font>

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I think the river bet is pretty player dependent, but I like it if for anything it keeps yours opponents guessing and will probably get you more action later on.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I am assuming you are playing the player, once you get it heads up. If the odds were that the player is likely to fold one pair on the river, then I think the play is fine. Not all bluffs work...they only have to work 1 in 10 times to be profitable. And at this limit, you need to try this once in a while.

But, if the player is a calling station, then you should back off on 6th and definitely check the river. No reason to give the "i can't fold player" any more of your hard-earned chips.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

After getting calle don 5th, I would become afraid since your board is so strong and your opponent calls anyway after being CRed. On 6th you rag off and he gets a card that pairs him or gives him a str8 if he wasn't ahead already. At this point I would just giv eup the bluff because your opponent is too strong. Check call 6th and then bet the river with As, Ks often (and occasionally Ts). After betting 6th the bluff on the river is okay...it can't be too wrong given the size of the pot. But, I still probably don't do it under very often because his call on 5th basically affirms that fact that he think you might just have 3s or a flush draw.

-Carlos

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

CHECK 6th!!

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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CHECK 6th!!

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Why? You have enough pot equity combined with fold equity to keep pushing in this situation.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Everyone folds to you. You have an Ace in the door, and behind you are a dead Eight and the bring-in, who is a tight player. Naturally, you fold.

Oh wait, this is about you. I actually think that playing on third street is a little dubious. There are a couple of clubs out, and you don't have any high-card strength in a heads-up pot.

Against most players, I would check sixth. You've shown a lot of strength, and he called after you caught the Ace on fifth. I have a hard time imagining that he'll fold sixth. If you think that it will help set up a river bluff, go ahead and bet, but there's an excellent chance that he's made up his mind to call this one down.

Bluffing seventh seems to be the most consistent with how you've played the rest of the hand.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I like your play on all streets. You're the favorite until sixth i think versus a smaller pair. I like the river bet as well. Reason being that the pot is huge and you won't win it by checking. If you get called on the end it shows your opponents that they can't play perfectly against you by passing marginal hands on the river. There is nothing easier than playing against an opponent who never bluffs.

I don't like checking sixth as when you play your draw this way your opponents will never "know" for certain if you have this hand or trips or a bigger pair. It adds some interesting game theory implications into how they now have to play against you. Of course against this opponent it means you should also value bet one pair hands on the river against him.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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CHECK 6th!!

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Why? You have enough pot equity combined with fold equity to keep pushing in this situation.

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Beta, his opponent committed to calling once he called 5th. How often do you see people fold 6th. Calling is very often the correct play. He has no fold equity. The only way jeff's opponent folds sixth is if jeff catches something scary. His opponent very well could have put him on the hand Jeff has-- a 4 flush. Semi-bluffing people who are gonna call anyway is foolish.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I probably bet out 4th because pairing my 6 or 3 is probably not enought to help me win. I'd like a checkraise there more with a hand like KT92cccc.

Also, I wouldn't mind taking this down on 4th. I realize I can't be behind too bad. But there are 2 dead clubs, and I'm probably behind very slightly to a pair. I think check-raising might tieing the opponent on.

5th is fine.

6th I'd check call

7th is fine (although sucky)

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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CHECK 6th!!

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Why? You have enough pot equity combined with fold equity to keep pushing in this situation.

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Beta, his opponent committed to calling once he called 5th. How often do you see people fold 6th. Calling is very often the correct play. He has no fold equity. The only way jeff's opponent folds sixth is if jeff catches something scary. His opponent very well could have put him on the hand Jeff has-- a 4 flush. Semi-bluffing people who are gonna call anyway is foolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

nevermind about my 4th street dribble. I ran some sims. I'm surprised the 4 flush is as far ahead (on 4th) as it is

anywhere from 56-44 to 60-40 depending on holding of opponent.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

"Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working. "

Well, it works two ways tho.. He's also made the pot bigger. Which means his opponent is more likely to call. Why not check, and bluff like 5% of the time on the river?

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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"Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working. "

Well, it works two ways tho.. He's also made the pot bigger. Which means his opponent is more likely to call. Why not check, and bluff like 5% of the time on the river?

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Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
CHECK 6th!!

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The fish is right. Once your opponent calls on fifth the party is over, Jeff. Time to check-call sixth. On the river most soild players are paying off I would assume. Your lines fine if for some strange reason you can envision your opponent being capable of mucking any pair here, I just would usually expect to be called. This is also "probable steal vs. bring-in" making it more likley in my mind that your opponent will look you up.

Mike Emery

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

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Since you inherently believe it.. never mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Even if you're correct about that fact, my point still holds weight, and takes away from the effectiveness of it. I still hold that semibluffing someone who is going to call is not +EV. Do you agree with that?

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you inherently believe it.. never mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Even if you're correct about that fact, my point still holds weight, and takes away from the effectiveness of it. I still hold that semibluffing someone who is going to call is not +EV. Do you agree with that?

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Yes, I agree.

I think the availible lines are ::
bet 6th, bet 7th regardless
check/call 6th, check/fold 7th (if you brick)

I like the bottom line best in this situation. But since Jeff bet 6th, I think he should bet 7th.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Question for you math guys. I have 9 outs to the flush here and six pair outs which will be good if he doesn't catch (most likely). So, what can we say? 12 outs total? What percentage of the time would he have to fold sixth (or seventh) to make the way I played the last two streets of this hand profitable based on how many outs you think I have.

Also, I'm beginning to believe I should have check-called sixth, check-folded fifth. So I'm just curious.

Jeff

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

You actually have 7 outs to the flush. 4 to a high pair (3 Ks and 1 A).

So 11 outs, 40 unknown cards. You are improving to win (assume you win with an A or K) a little over 25% of the time.

So the most putting money in on 6th can cost you is ~75% of a bet. Which is $45.

-If he'd check behind 100% of the time you lose $45 by betting out (Assuming he's calling)
-If he'd call a bet, and bet if checked to you cost yourself nothing.
-If he'll fold a "real" hand to your bet you'll profit roughly 75% of the pot (the other 25% of the time you'd win it outright)

So if there's a 13% (or more) chance he'll fold on 6th, the bet makes money.

And I think he's got to fold 15% of the time to make a river bluff neutral EV.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
nevermind about my 4th street dribble. I ran some sims. I'm surprised the 4 flush is as far ahead (on 4th) as it is

anywhere from 56-44 to 60-40 depending on holding of opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you suprised...I told you this last Friday!

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I'm beginning to believe I should have check-called sixth, check-folded fifth. So I'm just curious.

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no one has suggested folding 5th...you have a decent draw and your opponent just bricked, so a bet is mandetory...hopefully you were joking;-)

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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Also, I'm beginning to believe I should have check-called sixth, check-folded fifth. So I'm just curious.

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no one has suggested folding 5th...you have a decent draw and your opponent just bricked, so a bet is mandetory...hopefully you were joking;-)

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Hopefully it was a typo.. I think he means check-folded 7th.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

You might want to check out the "Paradox" thread btw. I wrote it for you. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jeff

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I meant check-fold the river. Multitasking blows.

Jeff

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Multitasking blows.


[/ QUOTE ]

And apparently so does Mike Emery...

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nevermind about my 4th street dribble. I ran some sims. I'm surprised the 4 flush is as far ahead (on 4th) as it is

anywhere from 56-44 to 60-40 depending on holding of opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you suprised...I told you this last Friday!

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I have a book called "Poker Wisdom Of a Champion" by Doyle Brunson. (An entertaining read, full of interesting stories and how they may or maynot have some kind of "moral")

In this book there is a hand example where the author is playing heads up stud with a complete nut job. On 4th Doyle has Aces and the nut has an obvious 4-flush. They go something like 13 bets (or some rediculous amount). The flush wins. Then it goes on to say "I knew my AA was a slight favorite over the 4-flush" so I went to the felt.

At the time I remember thinking "that seems strange" but I assumed because it was in a book it was right. I also thought it was retarded to go that many bets incase the opponent was rolled.

The book says basically :: If you have a big edge over an opponent don't give him a shot to bust you if you can widdle him away bit by bit (ie denying him a chance to bust you in 1 lucky shot)


I had always used this as my basis for grading 4-flushes. "4-flushes are about even with pairs".


I'm a moran for taking this long to realize this.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I played in a 10-20 live game where two players went 11 bets on fourth with a four flush and aces, respectively. Personally, I like to leave myself a little more wiggle room if things get ugly later in the hand.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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I'm a moran for taking this long to realize this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm a moran for taking this long to realize this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

As you bet 6th, I think the river bet is ok. I'd probably be in check-call mode by 6th. A raise by villain on 6th would make me absolutely sick. Keep postin' hands, I love the activity the Stud board gets these days.

- MAC

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Just don't do this every time, but looks ok to me.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Against a lot of 'callers', they are going to look at the 3 door and say, 'must be threes',if they think at all. Check 6 and 7, save two bets.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

More than half the time, against decent players, I check call fourth and check raise fifth (regardless of the card). Most of the time, I find that decent players will put you on exactly what you had when you played it this way. Also many of them will find the fold if you make the flush (on fifth and sometimes on sixth).

As the cards lie you have plenty of equity with your overcards to do this (the King is a very key card in this hand). Even against a wired pair things are pretty good as he is unlikely to have Aces. You also add deception.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Hey Man,

Thanks for the response. I like your line better than mine though I think I get a lot of value pumping it like I did against a bad player (who would NOT lay down a pair apparently). Against someone with a semblance of a clue, I like your play a lot.

Where have you been btw? Long time no see. Hope all is well.

Jeff

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Still travelling the world. Miss playing poker though. Will have to come back soon to get into a game.

On this hand, there is a good chance I would have called you on the river (but then I know you are an aggro hold em player [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) because I would think there is a good chance that you were pumping the flush draw on fourth.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

I would have checkraised you on 5th instead b/c I know you are capable of folding. Then I would have told you I was rolled up before hitting up Sbarro for a piece of pizza. I might even comp you to the snack bar if I was feeling particularly generous. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Glad to hear you are having fun traveling and look forward to seeing you in AC sometime (though not at my table lol).

Jeff