lost with TPTK
 

$30+3. villain just moved to the table. what's my plan? if you say bet, what do i do if villain raises?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

MP2 (t4089)
MP3 (t505)
CO (t870)
Button (t1745)
SB (t865)
BB (t900)
Hero (t2975)
UTG+1 (t1155)
UTG+2 (t5305)
MP1 (t1915)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: (t375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

hero?

i have 2575, villain covers by ~1.5k.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

Because of the flush draw, I couldn't give my opponent a free card here. The queen might have given AQ a hand that beat me, or I might be behind to a set or AJ, but the flush draw wouldn't make me slow down here. I'd continue the aggression and bet 600 and go from there.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because of the flush draw, I couldn't give my opponent a free card here. The queen might have given AQ a hand that beat me, or I might be behind to a set or AJ, but the flush draw wouldn't make me slow down here. I'd continue the aggression and bet 600 and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

and if villain raises?

Re: lost with TPTK
 

I'd use up all my time bank on this one, wondering if he is bluffing me with a flush draw, or if he is loose enough to have KT (possibly suited of spades, which would be a good draw on that flop), or has my ace beat right now. I'd probably fold and still have 2000 chips to play with if he raised me, because there can't be too many hands that I'd be ahead of here that would raise me there after calling a decent bet on the flop and me throwing another good bet on the turn. I am behind to AQ, AJ, KT, 88, JJ, or QQ here, and I can't think of a hand that would raise me here that doesn't have my TPTK beat. So I'd give it up and live to fight another battle.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

Ugh.

I don't think you have enough chips to check-call to the river.

I think I check and either raise all in or fold depending on his bet size.

Ugly freaking spot, I don't know what's right here.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: lost with TPTK
 

I've learned that when I'm playing my hand straight and it's semi-strong but the board isn't cooperating, to give the villain credit for what he's representing. Trust your gut.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh.

I don't think you have enough chips to check-call to the river.

I think I check and either raise all in or fold depending on his bet size.

Ugly freaking spot, I don't know what's right here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get what you mean. do you c/r a small bet and check/fold a big one? what do you do if he bets 550?

Re: lost with TPTK
 

Probably come over the top of a bigger bet and as a small one *probably* wants to get called, but really not being in the hand, I'm not sure.

Again, I really don't know what's right here.

Given that he called on that board and the Q coming off the turn I'm having problems putting him on a hand you beat, unless he's an uber-donk.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given that he called on that board and the Q coming off the turn I'm having problems putting him on a hand you beat, unless he's an uber-donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. only possible hands i'm ahead of are hands like AT/A9/KK/x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. these aren't that likely. in retrospect, i think i should've checked and folded to any reasonable bet, and check/called a tiny bet (and spiked a T). but i didn't...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

MP2 (t4089)
MP3 (t505)
CO (t870)
Button (t1745)
SB (t865)
BB (t900)
Hero (t2975)
UTG+1 (t1155)
UTG+2 (t5305)
MP1 (t1915)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: (t375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t550</font>, MP2 calls t550.

River: (t1975) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

hero?

i have 2045 left.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given that he called on that board and the Q coming off the turn I'm having problems putting him on a hand you beat, unless he's an uber-donk.


[/ QUOTE ]

How about JT of spades? Seems a reasonable guess. Of course, that's just about the only reasonable hand you beat, unless he's the sort to call preflop raises with small-to-medium suited connectors like 9Ts, 89s, etc.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

You played the turn like I would have. This ace on the river still puts you ahead of any flush draw (cept the KT of spades), but behind to AJ, AQ, JJ, QQ, or 99. Since he just called your bet, he could easily have a weaker ace and think the board is good enough to split a pot here, or have a flush draw that he missed. I'd think that villian would raise any set on the turn cuz of the flush possibility and the board getting too dangerous for straights. I think he would raise with AQ also. AJ he might not raise there, and just called, and KT would be most likely to just call and let you bet again into him on the river since he feels safest here.

I hate this board and the actions of the other guy, I guess I'd check call any reasonable bet he threw at me, and be prepared to muck to his hand that has me beat. If he put me all in, I'd have to call here, but I wouldn't like it.

I really hate this board.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

Well, I'd have to go to felt now, given the action.

He have played it pretty passively so I keep leading 1/2 pot and pray to god he calls with a weaker A.

I'd go for the c/r but unless he was drawing and missed (highly doubtful) no hand you are beating puts in chips.

If you are raised, bleah, can't fold, go broke.

Bleah.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: lost with TPTK
 

This is how I approach this situation:

Firstly I'm not going to check. If I check my opponent will bet probably 100% of the time and I then face a probable river bet assuming I don't improve my hand. I'm not even sure if a King is an out. The only advantage to checking is if your opponent checks back, but he might try an get tricky on the river. I see this line of play as a potential way to lose the most chips.

Secondly, based on the flop play there is nothing to suggest
that at least on the flop that you are behind. I would bet the turn. I'd make around a 3/4 pot sized bet and take it from there. If I'm raised I would probably fold and live to fight another day. I'd assume in a $30 tournament if I'm raised I'm beat. The board is as scarey looking to your opponent as it is to you. If you're outplayed you still have enough chips to continue.

Bruce

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'd have to go to felt now, given the action.


[/ QUOTE ]

why? we haven't passed any hands that we were behind. AQ/AJ/JJ/88/A8 could still reasonably be slowplaying.

i'd like to check-fold, because i think it's pretty unlikely we're ahead, but the problem is that AT/A9/AK might overplay when they see the A hit and bet/push for value. i think a check is best, because i don't see any worse hands calling a bet. i think now that folding to a push would be the best play, but i'm sure that in the moment i would call because i can't make a big fold to save my life.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for the c/r but unless he was drawing and missed (highly doubtful) no hand you are beating puts in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd hate a c/r. nothing calls that except for hands that beat us. check/call is wayyyyy better, imo.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
but the problem is that AT/A9/AK might overplay when they see the A hit and bet/push for value

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I go broke here.

Since i have no plans on folding to a re-raise I lead as the hands I beat check behind my river check (I can't rely on them to push)

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but the problem is that AT/A9/AK might overplay when they see the A hit and bet/push for value

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I go broke here.

Since i have no plans on folding to a re-raise I lead as the hands I beat check behind my river check (I can't rely on them to push)

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not 100% on that woodguy, I think a check there might get a weaker hand to put in alot of chips that they might not have. They also might just check it, but if you bet it, some of the hands that might go for a big raise on the river to your check might not play this one.

Its obvious that we are willing to lose all of our chips on this board, so a check might get villian with a weaker ace or some trash like jqo or TJ of spades to make a final push for a nice pot, where they would have surely folded to your river bet there. Any hand that has us beat is going to bet for sure, and is going to raise for sure, any hand we are ahead of except perhaps a weaker ace are going to fold to a bet, so a check here might be good.

I would love to hear your opinion on this though, this is one of those boards that I absolutely despise, and its a hand that would haunt me for a while if I made the wrong decisions on it.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

you said regarding the turn (and you didn't include T9):

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably fold and still have 2000 chips to play with if he raised me, because there can't be too many hands that I'd be ahead of here that would raise me there after calling a decent bet on the flop and me throwing another good bet on the turn. I am behind to AQ, AJ, KT, 88, JJ, or QQ here, and I can't think of a hand that would raise me here that doesn't have my TPTK beat. So I'd give it up and live to fight another battle.


[/ QUOTE ]

regarding the river:

[ QUOTE ]
Its obvious that we are willing to lose all of our chips on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

why did you suddenly get more confident? because he only called the turn? we haven't passed any of these hands, and the additional A hitting makes AT/A9/AK less likely than before.

i'm still not convinced that check/folding this river is not right, or maybe block/folding.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

I said that on the assumption that you put out there if he raised me there, which would put him on that tight of a range. With a call, I think his range is bigger than that, and includes flush draws along with some other hands like TJ of spades, JQo, Ax thats not AQ or AJ. I also said that without him raising me, I think the chances that he has a set go down, because a set would have likely raised there with the board getting so dangerous, and AQ would have raised there I think also. I think that now, we are ahead of more hands here than we are behind based on my reads, he might have slow played on the dangerous board and gets me, but I'd like to think that I am ahead of his range right now.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

That was Bruce's line on the turn.

I got more confident on the river since he didn't raise the turn, which I would *probably* expect a better hand than mine to do since it added another broadway to the board, unless he had exactly AQ.

So it looks to me he's trying to get to showdown cheap, or has me so buired he not worried.

Given the size of the pot, and what I have behind, and the read, I lead here.

Since I lead, I donk-commited myself to calling any raise.

I'm probably wrong, but I've said that thoughout this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: lost with TPTK
 

There are plenty of hands you are still ahead of on the turn. KQ spades or not, J10 spades, A10/A9, KJ. KK. I lead the turn for about 550 and probably (but not always) fold to a push.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

I don't think you can check-fold on the turn, there are plenty of drawing hands that could still be around. So i'd bet out again, and on that river.. hm... i guess maybe check-call, trry and induce a bluff from a missed spade draw..and it's not like weaker aces would check behind there, so cheeck-call the river.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of hands you are still ahead of on the turn. KQ spades or not, J10 spades, A10/A9, KJ. KK. I lead the turn for about 550 and probably (but not always) fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you on the river?

Re: lost with TPTK
 

If he was drawing he won't call, but he may bet. He may have AQ and be happy you are continuing to bet into him. But if he's that sort of a player he will probably cheaply value bet the river.

I'm check-calling here.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

check and see.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

I would value-bet the river expecting any A and maybe some other pair to call, but it's my limit brain taking over and I can intellectually understand how c/c is better.

FWIW, I think villain would have to be mad(or incredibly devious) to be slowplaying a hand to the river on this board, especially given your PF raise. If he thinks you are Joe Average party tourney player I can't imagine why he'd fail to raise A8/AJ/AQ/KT/set on this turn. When he calls he's either behind or on a draw, the river changed nothing, so I think c/c is best to induce bluffs from missed draws /weak hands and bets from Aces that are all giddy that they made trips.

Now if villain has played with you extensively and is known to be a clever, devious player then I think we have more to worry about. IMHO the reasons we are so worried about protecting our TPTK are the very same reasons why his slowplay is so unlikely - the drawy/dangerous nature of the board.

That came off kind of arrogantly... These are just the things that ran through my head as I read the action, and I fully admit that any or all of it could be incorrect - i'm pretty new to the tourney scene.

Surf

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
check and see.

[/ QUOTE ]

arg, i feel like i'm dragging this out of you...

what if i check and he pushes. what's your play?

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would value-bet the river expecting any A and maybe some other pair to call,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think al the hands that will call your bet here, will bet themselves if you let them. Also, hands taht wouldnt have called will bluff at it, And for hands taht beat you, the money would be going in anyway.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

sorry, when he pushes you only need to be good one time in 3 to make the call correct. Given that I bet the turn, I think I'm going to be good one time in three here against this guy, because i don't think there are very many hands its a good idea to play the way he did (call flop and turn, push river). Sure, sometimes he flopped a set or has a house or whatever but often enough he's a donk who thinks the 3rd A just made his A10 a monster. Sure, there are some players this is a fold against, but against an unknown I'm not in the habit of making big river folds.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

That was my exact reasoning too, I 100% agree. I am not going to fold on this river, and I want bad hands that would have folded to try to put in more money, because hands that have me beat are going to bet/raise me anyways. And if they check behind, they weren't likely to call my bet anyways, so thats why I think a check call here is good.

results
 

the river goes check-check. he has JsTs and MHIG.

thanks all for comments.

Re: lost with TPTK
 

[ QUOTE ]
$30+3. villain just moved to the table. what's my plan? if you say bet, what do i do if villain raises?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

MP2 (t4089)
MP3 (t505)
CO (t870)
Button (t1745)
SB (t865)
BB (t900)
Hero (t2975)
UTG+1 (t1155)
UTG+2 (t5305)
MP1 (t1915)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: (t375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

hero?

i have 2575, villain covers by ~1.5k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would pot that on the turn. If he raises all in or something I'd call. I mean, if he has AQ he played it pretty poorly all around and you got sucked out. Ten/King? Would be strange. I don't think I can get away from this hand.


You also still have the gutshot on the river.

edit: In my experiance in 30+3s, I wouldnt be surprised to get shown mid pair or something stupid. People just love calling you down in these things, thinking you're bluffing or something. I think you get paid more than you don't.

edit: I push that river. I think that river helps you waaay more often than it hurts. If villian folds oh well, you win a nice pot, but at that stage of a 30+3 he's very likely to call.

Re: results
 

[ QUOTE ]
the river goes check-check. he has JsTs and MHIG.

thanks all for comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted before I saw this, but I'm really not surprised. I don't know what it is, but in these 30+3s, for some reason, people just don't like giving a PF raiser credit. I can understand the C/C, in fact I think I might do this too here, but I think overall you're undervaluing your AK here. This isnt a 100+9. And the donks haven't been weeded out (enough) yet.

Re: results
 

I still don't think a bet is good on the river though, because if you bet, any hand that has you beat is going to raise you, and you will be committed to go all in. Any hand you don't have beat is going to fold, and you won't make any more than you did.

But if you check, any hand that has you beat is going to bet, and you are in the same situation as above, but any hand you don't have beat is either going to check behind, or going to throw a bet out there to try to take the pot, getting more of their chips in the pot and into your stack.

A bet might get a weaker ace to call here, but a check will get a weaker ace to bet there also.

At least, thats my line of reasoning there.