Flop overbet
 

Villain makes a lot of raises to 3 BB.

On one earlier hand, there was a call and I reraised to 15 BB from the SB, and the Villain folded.

On another earlier hand, I reraised to 11 BB from the SB, Villain pushed for 40 BB with TT and doubled up against my AA.

Online NL, 6-handed. <font color="white"> 1131776263 </font>

Hero is the button, 75 BB.
Villain is MP, 74 BB.
There were no very short stacks at the table, though the SB had only 40 BB.

Preflop:
Fold, Villain raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 folds.

Flop (2 players, 7.5 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 32 BB. Hero...?

Well, I liked the flop, but what did that bet of 4 times the pot mean? I can't think of a hand with which I would do that.

Re: Flop overbet
 

There were many votes, but there hasn't been any discussion yet.

What is the range of hands you put the Villain on after the overbet? How much equity do you have against this range? Which of these hands would the villain fold to a raise, getting about 2.8:1?

Re: Flop overbet
 

If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

I'd fold to the flop bet because, given the texture of the board, there are so few hands that you are dominating. Another way to say it is this: if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake; if calling is a mistake, then it's going to be a huge mistake because you will be drawing to two outs or drawing dead.

Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

Re: Flop overbet
 

I agree totally with the above. Welcome regular overbets from donks like this because it makes your life easy.

I can only fathom 88 here. Most pocket pairs other than 99 have you all f*cked up here. It could be the nuts or a scared overpair, but either way its a fold. If its a bluff, thats cool too.

Or it could be something like the time I raised preflop with 79s and meant to continuation bet for $7 but ended up betting $74.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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Or it could be something like the time I raised preflop with 79s and meant to continuation bet for $7 but ended up betting $74.

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That's a distinct possibility. I should mention the stakes, then. This was NL GBP 100, so the bet was 32 pounds. It could be that he meant to bet 3 pounds, the same size as his preflop raise, but his fin hit both the 3 and the 2.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

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You sound like an announcer for Live-At-The-Bike. Those are reasons not to reraise him.

Yes, TT is slightly ahead of his range. However, if I reraise, he will tend to fold the hands worse than TT, and call or push with better hands. (He pushed all-in with TT before.) If he pushes, I might or might not be pot-committed against him (because he is a maniac), but I'm not ahead of his range anymore and I will really regret raising. If he pushes, I no longer have a positional advantage.

Calling is a way to use my positional advantage and the fact that I am ahead of his raising range, but probably not ahead of his pushing range.

One problem with calling is that it lets the blinds enter with hands I'd rather knock out, but the flip side is that I'd hate to reraise and then get a call or reraise from the blinds.

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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.

While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.

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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)

Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.

Third, why do you think this is a large FToP mistake? Maybe it is precisely what is needed to bluff me off a better hand. Maybe it is an awesome value bet. Maybe he has a big draw and this bet gives him an informational advantage if I call down but never bet myself, so even if I win 52% hot-and-cold, I'll lose a lot of money in this pot.

Fourth, this was the first time I had seen him make an overbet like this. If he had done it before, I would have mentioned it along with the description of the earlier raised pots I had played against him.

Re: Flop overbet
 

Ok, here is my ridiculously long-winded reply. I apologize for the rambling..I tend to do that during midterms for some strange reason [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.

While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.

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I disagree with your strong disagreement. Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best. If you could see his cards and know that you’re ahead, sure it’s a huge mistake to fold the better hand. But you can’t see his cards, and you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best. Get involved in a thousand similar situations like this where you have a marginal hand vs a huge overbet on a straight board and you’ll see that folding isn’t a huge mistake. How many times out of this thousand is it a hand you’re ahead of? Not enough to make folding a huge mistake in my opinion.

Besides, what are you going to do? Cold calling would be bad because it’s now a huge pot and what do you do when an A, K, Q, J, 8, or 4 falls? Raising is bad because he gets to fold his complete bluffs and destack you with his real hands.

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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)

Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.

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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off. Even so, I think it’s a bad bet. On top of that, its not set in stone that anyone has their name on his chips. You said it’s the first time he’s overbet like this, so we don’t know for sure that he’s a total jackass bent on handing out money to the table. So, what’s with all the rush?

I think there are much better times than in this spot. Calling this bet does not guarantee your winning of his chips. I know you know that, but still, I had to mention it. It’s not like you have aces. Even if he doesn’t have a straight or a draw + overcard, the tens you have are not worth much in my opinion.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

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You sound like an announcer for Live-At-The-Bike. Those are reasons not to reraise him.

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Maybe I misunderstood your initial post. I thought you meant that he raises something like 25% of the time, and every time he does so, he raises to 3xBB. If this is what you meant, then I think you're giving up tremendous value by not re-popping him PF with a hand as strong as 10-10. Maybe this guy is so good that he pushes AA-JJ and folds everything else here, but I kind of doubt it.

If, on the other hand, you meant that he raises a normal percentage of the time, and sometimes, but not always, he only raises to 3xBB, then I definitely agree with just calling with 10-10 here.

As for the rest of the hand, of course you're significantly ahead of some of the cards he could be holding, but I believe that you're either barely ahead or, more likely, behind the range of hands that most opponents make this kind of bet with.

Oh, and if you can't take constructive criticism of the way you played this hand, then don't post.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot.

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I disagree with your strong disagreement.

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Are my numbers wrong? They certainly make it look like folding could be a large mistake.

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Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best.

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You have repeated that there are hands against which I am a small dog. I don't see any. Please give actual hands as examples of this.

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you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off.

A major part of the problem is to figure out the range of hands with which he might make this overbet. What hands do you think he has?


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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off.

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No, it's not necessarily a mistake. It might be a great bluff, as it would risk 32 BB to pick up 7.5 BB, but apparently many people would fold more than 80% of the time, and he might have some equity if called. It might be a great value bet if this gets the most money in on average with a monster. (See Ed Miller's article in this month's 2+2 magazine.)

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I think there are much better times than in this spot.


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Yes, calling all-in with AA a couple of orbits before was better. That is not a good argument against getting involved here.

Re: Flop overbet
 

Ok, I am getting tired of editing the quotes in this tiny box so I'm just going to try and reply to your points in order here. Is there anyways to change the size of the reply window? Its ridiculously small.

1. I think you just need to reread my whole paragraph here. Your numbers being correct has nothing to do with my point and I think you know that. Yes you are a 4-1 favorite over AK. You are also a 96% dog against 89o, 95% dog to 34 &amp; 48o, a 71% dog to 56 &amp; 67o, and an 88% dog to JJ, QQ, KK, AA, 77, 66, &amp; 55.
Let me try to rephrase my point anyways.

You are a favorite over AK. You don't know you are up against AK. The 75% advantage you have over AK doesn't make up for the % of time that I believe you are behind in this hand. In the long term, in situations similar to this, you are behind a high enough % of the time that folding incorrectly in this case is not a big mistake. Added to the % of time you are behind is the % of the time he will suck out when he does have a drawing hand like AK or A8.

In fact, folding to big bets with small overpairs with no reads on bad flops like this is not only not a big mistake, its correct.


2. My point here ties in directly with the point I made just above here. First, I apologize, you are not a slight dog in any cases, he is. You are a 60% favorite over 88, a 56% favorite over Ad8d, a 59% favorite over A8o. In case you are going to say +ev is +ev, I want to remind you that calling and hoping for a +ev coinflip is -ev. Even if you add pure bluffs and misclicks to your list of hopes, its -ev.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand.

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Backwards. Folding marginal hands in big pots and getting involved with big hands in big pots is a winning strategy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Getting involved in extremely marginal situations like this one isn't profitable in small stakes poker because you're not going to be right often enough. It isn't necessary either. You have such a huge edge against most of your opponents in small stakes NL games so what is the point in tangling yourself up in messes like this one?

As to what hands I think he has, I think its either a straight or a bigger overpair/set/2pair that is scared of seeing four to the straight + might think he can get a weak call from someone who thinks he is bluffing by over-representing a straight...although I seriously doubt he is thinking that deep. I can really see 88 here too. Bluffs and misclicks are a possibility here, but I don't think they are seen here from an unknown often enough to play for your whole stack. From the looks of the TT vs your AA hand, he seems to overplay his good hands. The problem is that most hands I think he is betting huge on the flop are ahead of your TT.

4. I have already read the article you referenced, but the overbet here isn't good. I rarely bet small when I have the nuts, but this isn't a good time to overbet. If its a bluff, then how do you defend risking 32 to win 7? If he keeps risking 32 to win 7 then he'll be broke in no time. What kind of equity does he have if called? You mean folding equity on the turn?

5. You're absolutely right when you say that getting AA was a better spot but its not an argument against getting involved. However, I didn't have that or any other previous hands in mind when I made that comment. Everyone seems to hate the phrase 'wait for a better spot', but this is a situation where I think you need to wait for a better spot to try and get his stack. Sometimes poker is a game of patience.

Lastly, where are you going with this hand? I hope your not raising on the flop. If you call, what are you doing on the turn card? What about the river? Or are you hoping that it goes call, check, check, check, check?

In conclusion: I didn't intend to get so detailed on this hand so I apologize for the over-analysis. Honestly, I think its a pretty standard fold and not worth the trouble but you have my reasoning so I hope I've made a good case for folding.

PS - Alan Schoonmaker had a great article back in May that I strongly recommend. It was about making posts asking for advice and then making sure to keep an open mind when recieving this advice. Its been taken down, but I have it saved and could PM it to you if he didn't mind. I have taken quite a bit of time to make these posts in an effort to offer helpful advice.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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You are a favorite over AK. You don't know you are up against AK. The 75% advantage you have over AK doesn't make up for the % of time that I believe you are behind in this hand.

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That is a reasonable position if you can back it up with a suggested range of hands or at least an estimate of how often you think TT is good here. Otherwise, it's just a restatement of the idea that you think folding is correct, which is not progress toward a better understanding of this hand.

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In the long term, in situations similar to this, you are behind a high enough % of the time that folding incorrectly in this case is not a big mistake.


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Any incorrect fold here would be a big FToP mistake (smallest against a monster draw). If you're talking about the range of hands, then according to the above, you believe folding is not a mistake at all. In neither sense would folding be a small mistake. So, please, don't say folding is a small mistake.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand.

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Backwards. Folding marginal hands in big pots and getting involved with big hands in big pots is a winning strategy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

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That is ridiculous. You quoted me out of context. Let me add the context again:

"I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off."

Level 1: How strong is my hand? Fold weak hands, and bet/raise with strong hands.

Level 2: How does my hand compare with my opponent's hand? Fold when my hand is weaker than my opponent's, and bet/raise when my hand is stronger.

Level 3: What does my opponent think I have? Get my opponent to fold stronger hands he hates, and call with weaker hands he likes.

There are other levels, but I'll stop there.

I was reminding you that level 1 analysis is not the end of the story. Then you quoted me out of context to make it look like I don't understand level 1 poker.

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You have such a huge edge against most of your opponents in small stakes NL games so what is the point in tangling yourself up in messes like this one?

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Once again, this is not a good argument. That there will be better opportunities later does not mean it is right to pass up a +EV situation now. The question is whether it is +EV, of course.

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As to what hands I think he has, I think its either a straight or a bigger overpair/set/2pair that is scared of seeing four to the straight + might think he can get a weak call from someone who thinks he is bluffing by over-representing a straight...although I seriously doubt he is thinking that deep. I can really see 88 here too. Bluffs and misclicks are a possibility here, but I don't think they are seen here from an unknown often enough to play for your whole stack. From the looks of the TT vs your AA hand, he seems to overplay his good hands. The problem is that most hands I think he is betting huge on the flop are ahead of your TT.


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Finally, you post a range of hands. Thank you. I would much rather see this than your philosophy of beating small stakes games.

Re: Flop overbet (RESULTS)
 

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Online NL, 6-handed. <font color="white"> 1131776263 </font>

Hero is the button, 75 BB.
Villain is MP, 74 BB.
There were no very short stacks at the table, though the SB had only 40 BB.

Preflop:
Fold, Villain raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 folds.

Flop (2 players, 7.5 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 32 BB. Hero...?


[/ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to 72 BB (all-in). Villain folds.
Hero wins 71.5 BB - rake.

I felt the Villain had a vulnerable hand like two pair, TPGK, 99-QQ, or AK. This bet looked to me like a protection bet, not a pure bluff or value bet, but I felt I was ahead of the range of hands he could have because so many of them were just one lower pair. I'm not confident of this, as this was a strange situation, which is why I posted.

Just calling looks hideous. It would tell AK or A7, which have 6 and 5 outs, to get out unimproved, but I might lose my whole stack if the "free card" helps them. If I raise, the Villain gets 2.8:1 on the call, which gives a 6-out draw a tough decision. That means I don't face the problem of being ahead of his range, but behind when he calls. The raise is an efficient protection bet when I'm ahead.

I was surprised at the fold. Maybe he didn't consider the odds he was getting, and just wanted to keep playing without adding money. Maybe he had a semi-bluff involving overcards, and no longer felt the overcards would be good when I raised.

Re: Flop overbet
 

My default here is fold. To me this guy is an unknown. When an unknown makes a 32bb bet into a tiny pot, Time to fold. There is yet have enough information about him to make a big call here. There are players who I would raise here, but these are players whose playing styles I understand. Unless you know he is very agressive, and very stupid. It's a fold. If he is both of those things. The decision is to raise or call. I'd personally raise in that case. There are just too many overcards that can fall. The 32bb is pot committing anyway. The problem with the raise is that he will fold all but the hands that beat TT.

Re: Flop overbet
 

Actually I think he will probably fold quite a few hand that beat TT as well - such as JJ, even QQ KK - thinking he's up against a made str8 or AA - maybe even AA
The only hand that won't fold for sure are the str8's.

Interesting posts by all concerned...
do you play at PP? if so what limits?

Re: Flop overbet
 

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That is a reasonable position if you can back it up with a suggested range of hands or at least an estimate of how often you think TT is good here. Otherwise, it's just a restatement of the idea that you think folding is correct, which is not progress toward a better understanding of this hand.

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This was based on my estimates of the % of the time you are ahead here. Hand ranges come later as you know and were not needed to make my point here

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Any incorrect fold here would be a big FToP mistake (smallest against a monster draw). If you're talking about the range of hands, then according to the above, you believe folding is not a mistake at all. In neither sense would folding be a small mistake. So, please, don't say folding is a small mistake.

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Try really, really hard to follow me this time. You need to have an open mind and think about this from a different point of view. You can’t make perfect folds 100% of the time you play poker. In fact, you make folds to inferior hands every session. Are you now going to argue that you never fold the best hand, even if its K high? Is folding to bets in all of those spots a huge mistake when the best hand happens to be your K high? In each case of the hand, sure. But if you keep trying to make big calls, you’re going to kill yourself in the long run. These bad folds are small mistakes. Your hand is not quite as cut and dry, but it fits into the same category of being marginal and very likely behind.

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Once again, this is not a good argument. That there will be better opportunities later does not mean it is right to pass up a +EV situation now. The question is whether it is +EV, of course.

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Since its not certain that this is a +ev situation and since I believe there is a good chance you lose your stack here (and possibly play sub-optimally as a result) it’s an easy pass. So yes, there are better places to commit your stack in against weak players, like when you have a good chance of having the winning hand Can’t you pick a better place to get your money in than from playing back against a huge bet from an unknown while you hold nothing more than a pair of tens on a 567 board?? Don’t fall into the trap of results-oriented thinking.

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"I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off."

Level 1: How strong is my hand? Fold weak hands, and bet/raise with strong hands.

Level 2: How does my hand compare with my opponent's hand? Fold when my hand is weaker than my opponent's, and bet/raise when my hand is stronger.

Level 3: What does my opponent think I have? Get my opponent to fold stronger hands he hates, and call with weaker hands he likes.

There are other levels, but I'll stop there.


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I would much rather see this than your philosophy of beating small stakes games.

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Lol, these two quotes look funny next to each other. Especially since they both come from you. I'd love to see the 4th and 5th levels though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Anyways, I feel like I’m wasting my time here. It seems to me that you had already made up your mind before making this post and was seeking confirmation. I have seen you defend your play simply by saying “what if its AK,” “you sound like an announcer at the bike,” and with other blanket, devil’s advocate statements that give us absolutely no insight into your reasoning. I am glad that you finally threw a couple hand ranges out there. That was a good start.

Re: Flop overbet (RESULTS)
 

I think he may have mistyped. I liked your raise regardless.

Re: Flop overbet
 

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Yes, TT is slightly ahead of his range. However, if I reraise, he will tend to fold the hands worse than TT, and call or push with better hands.

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So re-raise him PF and the hand plays itself. If he calls your re-raise you can fold to his inevitable flop bet and if he pushes you can fold pre-flop. If you're worrying about being committed after you re-raise, don't ... because you're not.

mj