Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

As in, if a player loses to Party, does that increase his MGR? And if he wins, does that decrease his MGR?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Yes, but why are you playing blackjack? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

First, there shouldn't be any rakeback at Party.

Second, how the hell would playing BJ in the casino have anything to do with poker rakeback?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

actually it does, I was looking at the affiliate page the other day, and affiliates get 20% of the bj mgr, which to be clear is the amount the player actually loses on bj, not the house expectation.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
First, there shouldn't be any rakeback at Party.

Second, how the hell would playing BJ in the casino have anything to do with poker rakeback?

[/ QUOTE ]
Who said anything about rakeback?

The subject is rake payments to affiliates. Party BJ is a new income stream for poker affiliates. It also introduces the variance monster into a new environment. The affiliate is effectively taking about 1/4 of the house action: +EV but gambling nevertheless. A high roller who gets hot might seriously hurt a small affiliate who was unlucky enough to have signed him up.

Maybe those who know more about BJ can comment on how serious a threat this is?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Steller,

Its a huge risk for a small affiliate, some of the poker affiliates of other sites that have offered this for a long time (like paradise) have posted that they requested and had their blackjack stream turned off for this very reason.

For a large affiliate sharing 20% of the risk of a +EV system shouldn't be as much of a concern, but it is still a gamble.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

To answer some questions:
1. I'm not playing blackjack, the question was from the point of view of affiliates who's players play blackjack.
2. My question wasn't about how it affects rakeback, it as about how it effects MGR.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
Steller,

Its a huge risk for a small affiliate, some of the poker affiliates of other sites that have offered this for a long time (like paradise) have posted that they requested and had their blackjack stream turned off for this very reason.

For a large affiliate sharing 20% of the risk of a +EV system shouldn't be as much of a concern, but it is still a gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so a player winning big will deduct from the affiliates other poker MGR revenues?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

To get more rakeback, it seems like a great way to increase your monthly rakeback by just going bust repeatedly and making huge bets.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

This is kind of irrelevent but the funny thing about this is that BJ can be +EV. You sign up under an affiliate who is your accomplice. Now you bet $200 (I'll just assume 2 outcomes for simplicity's sake i.e. ignoring splitting, doubling dow so the EV is 0.49*$200-0.51*$160 = $16.4
where I assumed 2% house edge. So affiliates should tell all their players to do it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of irrelevent but the funny thing about this is that BJ can be +EV. You sign up under an affiliate who is your accomplice. Now you bet $200 (I'll just assume 2 outcomes for simplicity's sake i.e. ignoring splitting, doubling dow so the EV is 0.49*$200-0.51*$160 = $16.4
where I assumed 2% house edge. So affiliates should tell all their players to do it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I was tryign to figure this out too, there's gotta be some flaw that we're not seeing. Something to do with the fact that it only pays out once per month or something. If a previous month results in a negative MGR does that take away from a new month? It would have to, otherwise Party really would be opening itself to scams like this.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins?

[/ QUOTE ]

The affiliates are sharing 20% of the revenue, whether it's positive or negative. This is the same way most online casinos calculate their affiliate commissions.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins?

[/ QUOTE ]

The affiliates are sharing 20% of the revenue, whether it's positive or negative. This is the same way most online casinos calculate their affiliate commissions.

[/ QUOTE ]

And how does that make it +EV? Doesn't it just reduce the HA by 20%?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Ron...

Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong!

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ron...

Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not crazy, at least in theory.

This is a hit-and-run with potential to be +EV. Player signs up for rakeback with an accomplice who is a new (sham) affiliate.

Case 1): Player wins [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]. Affiliate account goes negative but affiliate goes out of business and doesn't have to pay. Player gets to keep 100% of his win.

Case 2): Player loses. Affiliate does enough real business to make it look legit and then the accomplices recover 20% of their loss.

Important variation: Don't use an accomplice. Just sting a real rakeback affiliate.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ron...

Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not crazy, at least in theory.

This is a hit-and-run with potential to be +EV. Player signs up for rakeback with an accomplice who is a new (sham) affiliate.

Case 1): Player wins [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]. Affiliate account goes negative but affiliate goes out of business and doesn't have to pay. Player gets to keep 100% of his win.

Case 2): Player loses. Affiliate does enough real business to make it look legit and then the accomplices recover 20% of their loss.

Important variation: Don't use an accomplice. Just sting a real rakeback affiliate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why MGR should be based on expectation and not actual profits/losses.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Ron...

Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong!

It is if you partner with an affiliate who is willing to pay you 20% back if you lose.

So odds of winning $200 is 0.49, odds of losing is 0.51 WITH
receiving $40 back your affiliate if you lose.

EV = 0.49*$200-0.51*($200)-0.51*$200+0.49*$40

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Crazy,

The EV of Player + Friend Affiliate = (0.49*$160) - (0.51*$160)= -$3.2
instead of
EV of non-affiliated player = (0.49*200) - (0.51*200) = -$4

Why would your friend agree to pay party $40 if you win and pay you $40 if you lose? That's called a no win situation [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

The situation is still -EV... however, if you ARE a blackjack player, an affiliated relationship that you describe (which is in violation of party's affl T&C btw) would reduce your variance!

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Thanks sniper, I stand corrected...I'm an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I ignored the affiliate gain part.

However, it still works if you team up with a deadbeat affiliate...i.e. the affiliate doesn't pay party if you win
the bet.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, it still works if you team up with a deadbeat affiliate...i.e. the affiliate doesn't pay party if you win
the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
"Deadbeat" is the wrong word here.

Negative affiliate balances offset current and future earnings but they are not debts. Party never expects an affiliate to "send money" to cover losses. They just won't pay him again unless/until his account goes positive. That's what makes the scenario described in my earlier post work.

One good reason for Party's decision to continue the ban on rakeback arises when the affiliate is an unknowing accomplice. If the player loses the RB affiliate assumes the player has been playing lots of poker and pays up without question. He will continue paying until one month the player gets his big win. Suddenly the player's tracker tanks and the affiliate eats the loss.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would your friend agree to pay party $40 if you win and pay you $40 if you lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey that's what i call a real friend [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nowhere does it say this.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Food for thought. If you could get a 25% RB with Party (too bad this is not possible) including your play on BJ it would be +EV to play BJ. The house percentage is right around 2% (if your play perfect basic strategy) but you would be getting 5% back (25% of 20%)for a net gain of 3% on all your action.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nowhere does it say this, if basic addition and subtraction are too hard for you to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nowhere does it say this, if basic addition and subtraction are too hard for you to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

What I think is still unclear though, is what happens if an affiliate has a negative balance. I seriously doubt the affiliate has to pay Party, normally it would be taken out of the affiliates other revenue, or next month's revenue, etc., but what about a hit and run affiliate/player combo like the scenario discussed further up in this thread? It seems like it would work. Of course this would be so much trouble that it seems like it wouldn't be worth it as far as hourly rate goes, plus the chance of party catching on and seizing the players funds, etc.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

This would only work if you made exactly ONE bet per month.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
This would only work if you made exactly ONE bet per month.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is being contemplated is only making one bet period. Before signing up on a new name and new affiliate. Otherwise it doesn't work.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nowhere does it say this, if basic addition and subtraction are too hard for you to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

Why don't you quote something from party that's leading you to your conclusion? Just because other casinos have done it this way, doesn't mean party will.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you quote something from party that's leading you to your conclusion? Just because other casinos have done it this way, doesn't mean party will.

[/ QUOTE ]

Posted 10/10/05 by the Party rep on casinoaffiliateprograms.com:

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker.com are pleased to annouce that Blackjack play is now available Affiliates referred players can now play Poker and Blackjack at the same time, using the same account and one common purse.

Commission based affilaite partners will receive 20% of Blackjack net revenue* for referred players’ Blackjack activity on all MGR trackers.

Starting mid-October 2005, PartyPoker.com affiliate partners will be able to see the Blackjack net revenue from referred players against each tracker in a dedicated Blackjack column in the stats. The column will show stats from from the date of the Blackjack release, alongside Oct. 2005 Poker revenue calculations, taking into account revenues for the whole month.

We are currently testing the user acceptance and profitability of this feature, and we expect to release further changes within the next few months both for affiliates and players. Please send an email with any feedback to your Affiliate Relationship Manager or to [email protected]


*Blackjack net revenue is calculated as :
Blackjack wagering by players Less Blackjack wins by player = Blackjack net revenue $$$

Affiliates final payable will be: Revenue from poker CPA deals plus Revenue from poker MGR deals plus Revenue from Blackjack plus Media search revenues plus Sub-affiliate revenues = Final payable $$$

Affiliates with sub-affiliates will also receive sub-affiliate revenues for Blackjack. Again, Blackjack revenues are only payable on MGR trackers.

[/ QUOTE ]
Notice the separate reporting for blackjack. That should prevent certain problems I was worried about.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Its huge +EV for the player. You basically have a coin flip situation where you stand to win $200 or lose $160.
The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain...

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

So, if I follow this, a month where a player wins at blackjack does not reduce the mgr for poker, but for the affiliate to be paid for blackjack the next month, the player has to have a net loss at blackjack not just for that month, but for his lifetime of play at party BJ?

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty simple. Let's extend the concept to two hands. Say you win the first hand, putting you at +200. Now, you bet again, and lose the second hand, putting you at 0. You don't make +200 the first hand, and -160 the second hand, because you only get 20% of your net loss back. So yeah, one hand is fine, but beyond that, it's still -EV.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

Someone explain this:

Blackjack wagering by players Less Blackjack wins by player = Blackjack net revenue $$

... so if I wager $200, and I win $200, that means my affiliates "Blackjack net revenue" is $0, not -$200? Unless I'm completely misreading it.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

If you wager $200.. and win... you've won $400 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain...

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it will only work until you break even. If you lost $200 on your first bet, you can keep trying again and keep getting the 20% rakeback. True, if you hit a bad run of cards you could go broke fast, but you would keep getting the 20% until your MGR was positive again. Unless I'm missing something, which I very well could be.

To me it seems that if you lost the first bet, the 2nd bet would have the same EV as the first one, just that if you keep losing you might never get back to even.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

[ QUOTE ]
To me it seems that if you lost the first bet, the 2nd bet would have the same EV as the first one, just that if you keep losing you might never get back to even.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you lose the first bet, the next bet will not be +EV. The point is that winning the second bet will lose the rakeback you already earned.

Individual bets are only +EV when your current cumulative result is breakeven. If you are ahead you cannot get rakeback on your losing bet. If you are behind you can get rakeback by losing but you can also lose rakeback by winning.

All of this assumes the oversimplified model of blackjack in which each hand is an even-money bet on the flip of a coin that is slightly biased against you. It also assumes you bet as much as you can (how much is that?) because that is the optimal strategy. You maximize profit by maximizing variance.

This analysis completely neglects a major issue. The player's normal disadvantage is very small. The player's advantage when he plays a rakeback-protected hand is large. It is +EV to play a second hand after you lose the first one. In exchange for a slight immediate disadvantage you gain a (nearly) 50% chance of returning to breakeven and getting another chance to play a high-EV protected hand.

For the same reason it is +EV to play a second hand after winning the first one. You incur a slight immediate disadvantage but you get to play another rakeback-protected hand if you lose.

Now mathematical induction kicks in. We just determined that it is +EV to play another hand when you are up a bet (+1) or down a bet (-1). It's not as +EV as playing a breakeven hand (0), but it's still more than the EV cost of normal blackjack. That makes it +EV to play +2 or -2 hands because you might get a chance to play a +1 or -1 hand.

In fact you can keep playing until you are a fair distance from breakeven before the slight house edge outweighs the possibility that you might eventually work your way back to zero. You keep playing until you have won so much or lost so much that it is no longer +EV to continue. This strategy results in a substantial win or a substantial (rakeback-cushioned) loss.

I suspect experienced BJ players intuitively recognize this. BJ is appealing to fish precisely because in the short run your chance of winning a lot of money is almost as high as your chance of losing a lot. The long run is a long way off and a 20% rebate on a losing session will allow you to play quite a lot of hands before the EV of the entire session becomes negative.

Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
 

My first signup so far has generated about $7xx in rake this month (according to Party's affiliate site), and according to him (I am 100% sure this is valid info), he won $3000 playing Party BJ a few days ago. Apparently, the BJ win has not been subtracted from the total MGR (yet).

Dan