Completely Lost with AA
 

Situation: $5 rebuy on Party. Late in the 2nd hour (after the rebuy period) Blinds are 150/300. Limper has been limping pretty often. A guy typed that the limper was VERY lucky to still be there.

***** Hand History for Game 2915902652 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:16791550 Level:8 Blinds (150/300) - Saturday, October 22, 18:37:53 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table R+A(492811) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: xxx ( $10024 )
Seat 2: SB ( $7926 )
Seat 3: xxx ( $6870 )
Seat 4: xxx ( $4197 )
Seat 5: xxx ( $2700 )
Seat 6: limper ( $11610 )
Seat 7: xxx ( $6826 )
Seat 8: Pasterbator ( $9860 )
Seat 9: xxx ( $8815 )
Seat 10: xxx ( $2748 )
Trny:16791550 Level:8
Blinds (150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Pasterbator [ As Ac ]
xxx folds.
xxx folds.
Limper calls [300].
xxx folds.
Pasterbator raises [1200].
xxx folds.
xxx folds.
xxx folds.
SB calls [1050].
xxx folds.
Limper calls [900].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 7h, Td ] Pot is about 3600
SB is all-In [6726]
Limper calls [6726].
Pasterbator pukes and ??

Am I ever ahead here? If they are both on draws, am i even a favorite to win? These things ran thru my head in the 15 seconds Party gives you to react.

Whats the play?

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

SB has AK with 20% chance of AQ
Limper has set; if he had over pair, chances are he wouldnt limp/call

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

I can't lay this down in a 5R.. people lovveee top pair in these tourneys, you could be facing a draw, which is good, and the only thing on the board that's better than your hand is trips or a flukey 8-9... plus your odds are really good.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

obviously a tough spot... I think you're ahead of limper and SB is questionable. I go broke or go home here. Call.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

I probably make the call as well. I think AK or AQ is pretty likely for the SB and the limper might be on a flush draw or a flush draw + gutshot or something like that. Hard for me to say without more specific reads though.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

Too many hands here that you could be ahead of, I'd reraise all in and get all your chips in right then and there. I am going to assume sb had something like JA, and limper is on a flush draw here.

If you are up against a hand like 2 pair, you just need to have the board pair a card thats not his to jump ahead, and I am not going to give either player credit for a set here, they might have it, but if your read is right on limper, you are at least ahead of him and can get a side pot of about 4000 going with him and hope he doesn't hit a flush or have a set.

Tough luck on the loss.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

I would lay this down. Heres my hand ranges for both players ...

Board: Jh 7h Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.4412 % 26.92% 00.52% { AA }
Hand 2: 20.0101 % 19.55% 00.46% { QQ-JJ, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 52.5487 % 52.19% 00.36% { JJ-TT, 77, AJs, AJo }

I think this hand range is pretty accurate. If it was just the SB all-in, then I make this call. But not with the Limper making the call.

However, if you add KJo and KJs to the Limpers list of hands ... you have a slgihty equity edge. However, I dont think hed play that this way, although its certainly possible. This is closer than I thought, but I lay it down.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
You guys cant be serious. This is as routine a fold as you will get. Heres my hand ranges for both players ...

Board: Jh 7h Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.4412 % 26.92% 00.52% { AA }
Hand 2: 20.0101 % 19.55% 00.46% { QQ-JJ, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 52.5487 % 52.19% 00.36% { JJ-TT, 77, AJs, AJo }

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you put limper on such a tight range there? I mean, if hero has a read that he heard another player say he was a luckbox, he could have called with some suited cards hoping to flop big, and fold on an unfavorable flop (I see poor players all the time limp call with hands they had no business even limping with). I just couldn't put him on a set or AJ exactly, I think he could also have a flush draw here.

And if hero is about a 1/3 chance of winning, and he is going to get close to 3x his chips if he wins this, I think thats reason enough to call here. Sure, he doesn't have exactly 1/3 and isn't getting exactly 3x his chips, but I think your ranges are off here for limper. Lots of poor players like to call for most of their chips chasing flush draws with unfavorable odds.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

Yup. I see players calling all in for all their chips on a flushdraw all the time at these levels.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

You guys also dont seem to realize this is a tourney (although it is a rebuy) and not a cash game. You are putting all your chips in here against a player who is all-in, a caller ... and you are 50/50 as to your decision. Even fi you are ahead you will be fighting off tons of cards just to see another hand. If you are the better player, I think you can pass up this nuetral or slight +EV and wait for a better spot.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

I don't play cash games, only tourneys, and still think that you will win against limper often enough to make this a good play (which would leave you with 4000 chips if you beat him and not sb) vs. 8600 if you fold. And if you do win against both, you have a massive stack at this table (28K) and can bully this table into submission for many rounds to come. I can see an argument for folding this, but since I don't think limper is on as tight of a range as you point out, I'd shove the rest of my chips in on good odds. I have no qualms about getting my chips in on a slightly +EV situation if it makes my stack considerably larger than the next highest stack (28K vs. 10K). With that much of an chip increase, if I win it, I would be feeling very positive about going far into the tourney even at that point, and would be salivating come bubble time.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

This is ridiculous. This is a call. Why are we giving SB so much credit for a hand, why would he just push into 2 players with a monster, it reeks of a draw/ marginal top pair crap Limper limps a lot but he probably raises TT or JJ... I honestly can't only give him credit for calling the all in with the nuts or near nuts.

Call.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.4412 % 26.92% 00.52% { AA }
Hand 2: 20.0101 % 19.55% 00.46% { QQ-JJ, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 52.5487 % 52.19% 00.36% { JJ-TT, 77, AJs, AJo }


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this hand range.

I dont see the SB pushing into 2 players here with JJ.

As for the limper, considering he probably limps a lot of junk, I think we can throw in Q9 (s or o), as well as AT and 88 99, depending on his donkish tendencies. Its been a while since ive done a 5 dollar tournament, but I have seen some VERY bad hands in this type of spot.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

If you call for 3/4s of your stack, why not go ahead and push the rest of them in? You would be pot committed at that point, and if you feel good about calling off that much of your stack, shouldn't you go ahead and get the rest in vs. limper before he sees a card on the turn or river that scares him off his hand (not likely, unless he is on a draw and folds it on river to a bet).

I do agree with your analysis, I think if sb had a monster, he'd be much more likely to check to the preflop bettor and then go for a check raise or a smooth call and continue on the turn. And completely agree about the limper, although it is possible he just calls with a set there.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

Yeah when i said call i meant push.

Re: Completely Lost with AA
 

Thanks for running the numbers everyone. After using my entire time bank, i called them. SB had KQ for an openended straight...as expected. Limper had QJ for top pair. Definitely a donk. Anyway, i dodged all the cards i needed to, and it gave me a huge stack. I still felt completely lost on the flop tho.

Thanks
Jason.

BTW, i took 5th for $1k in this tournament. Hooray.