Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

Last week: 4-2 (and would have been 5-1 had Bulger not gone down) with a win on the Game of the Week
Season: 16-13 overall, 4-2 on Game of the Week.

This week, I'm not exceedingly happy about any of the picks. Game of the week was a tossup this week between Detroit and Philly, but I'm going with my first instinct. GotW in name only as I'm reccommending two unit plays on the first two games, and one unit plays on picks 3 & 4.

All lines current as of posting from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.

Detroit +3 at Cleveland
4/6 Yahoo "experts" have Cleveland here as well as a slight majority of the public according to wagerline. Detroit has been playing tenacious defense, especially against the pass and Cleveland is a pass-oriented team with a struggling quarterback. The Browns have been passing the ball nearly twice as much as they run it, leading to seven sacks in the last two weeks. The Lions defense has 10 interceptions on the season. Even if Kevin Jones is out, Detroit still has big-play potential in Bryson at the #2 RB. The Browns have the 27th-ranked defense overall in the NFL and must prepare against both Harrington and Garcia at quarterback. Detroit has been struggling on offense but that's been against three of the NFL's top defenses (Tampa, Baltimore, Carolina) and their "better than they've looked" offense should finally have a coming out party as they're able to run all over a terrible defense. Defensively Detroit will frustrate Dilfer with several sacks and a 1-2 big interceptions. Game of the week. 21-17 Detroit for the outright win.

Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. Philly blows out to an early lead at home, helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind, and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack. This is a pivotal game for Philly, which will move to 4-2 with the win. The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong. Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign. Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line. The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. 27-21 Philly.

Dallas +3.5 at Seattle. Seattle is one of the top four biased picks this week on Wagerline (more than 65% on their side) which makes this a public perception game in my opinion. 100% of ESPN analyst picks are for Seattle as well as 5/6 USA today picks Seattle doesn't have a strong offensive line, and Dallas should be able to get serious pressure on Hasselbeck. Seattle is also facing an emotional issue with the Ken Hamlin nightclub assult and will be starting a very weak Marquand Manuel at safety, which Bledsoe and Meeshawn/Glenn should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have looked decently strong in the last two weeks and I look for them to make this a close game if not win outright. 24-21 Seattle for the Dallas cover.

Washington -13 over San Fran
I can't imagine that the Niners have come up with anything for Alex Smith. The Redskins are hot offensively and should be fired up for a home game after last week's tough loss to the Chiefs. San Fran is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. If you need a good one-week defensive pickup in your fantasy league, take a strong look at Washington this week. This would also be the most straightfoward suicide pool pick, assuming you've still got Washington to pick. Would also be an easy game to hedge with a moneyline bet on San Fran if you do pick Wash as the suicide pick. Anyways, Santana Moss scores two touchdowns here, the Niners continue to suck, and the Redskins roll to an easy 28-10 win.

As usual, all picks archived on my poker blog (performify.com) if you want to go back through them. Any updates due to late developments will be posted in both places.

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

Quick comments about your Seattle write up.

I imagine 65% is about right, but most sharp money went on Seattle when the spread was 3.

Not that this makes the cover any more or less likely, but it should be noted that enough early money when on the Hawks' to move the line off a key number.

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

Thanks for the feedback Scott. I do feel the extra half point is a key move and that was a large factor in this pick being selected over a couple others I was evaluating.

If you're playing Seattle and not at -3 I think you're on the wrong side of this line, but we'll see what happens. I'm not real happy about either of my one unit picks but they are the best of the remaining games in my opinion.

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Cowboys now at +4 on Bodog, I'm officially adjusting the pick to +4 due to the short window between posting at +3.5 and the move, and because my unit went in at +4 myself. Not that it matters that much, but there is a the additional probability of a push.

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Adding one unit on Dalls at +5 (-105) for one unit at +4 and one unit at +5 half juice.

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3-1 for the week with another hit on the game of the week. +2.8 units.

19-14 for the season, 5-2 on the game of the week.

Spot-on analysis on Philly for the win, just missed the half point. Probably should have recommended buying it down to three. Anyways...

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Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

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Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

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I realize the Eagles got lucky to get the win there, but jeez, SD didn't prove a damn thing in that game. The fact with them remains, if you shut down LT and you have an offense that can put together two first downs on the same drive consistently, you can beat them.

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Philly was destroyed in the 2nd half. I'm ashamed I took them. SD proved to be the better team even when LT did nothing. It shouldn't have even been this close.

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I realize the Eagles got lucky to get the win there, but jeez, SD didn't prove a damn thing in that game. The fact with them remains, if you shut down LT and you have an offense that can put together two first downs on the same drive consistently, you can beat them.

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They proved they can keep games close with their defense when LT sucks. It was a pathetic performance from the Eagles, and nice coaching Andy Reid! My -3.5 bet actually would've covered, without real justification obviously, if he'd just called for a FG with 15 secs left in the 1st half. Greedy bastard.

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He coached a terrible game - par for the course - team doesn't win scrap throwing 50+ times a game.

Again, if the Chargers were facing an offense that didn't have its head in its ass, they would have lost by two touchdowns.

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

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He coached a terrible game - par for the course - team doesn't win scrap throwing 50+ times a game.

Again, if the Chargers were facing an offense that didn't have its head in its ass, they would have lost by two touchdowns.

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Do you give the SD defense any credit at all?

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

Philly defense was suffocating for the first 2 and a half quarters. On the other side of the ball, Philly's O-Line gave McNabb all day almost every time he dropped back. The trouble was, McNabb looked like he was closing his eyes and throwing the ball randomly most of the time.

I agree this game shouldn't have been close. Philly looked to have the advantage everywhere for the majority of the game.

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I don't know if you were able to watch the game at all, but Philly's D was making plays and SD's was not. McNabb shot them in a foot a few times with poor decisions and accuracy.

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He coached a terrible game - par for the course - team doesn't win scrap throwing 50+ times a game.

Again, if the Chargers were facing an offense that didn't have its head in its ass, they would have lost by two touchdowns.

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Do you give the SD defense any credit at all?

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No, not really - did you watch the game? The Eagles played TERRIBLE, most of McNabb's completions were short for no yardage, he threw to the receivers' feet most of the game like he's been doing for years, they never ran the ball for more than 2 yards at a time, they basically played like a D1-AA college team on offense the whole game... they sucked! And it was still that close?

Shut down LT (meaning COMPLETELY shut down like happened today, not just hold him to 80 yards and a TD), have a competent offense, dont turn the ball over, win the game.

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

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I don't know if you were able to watch the game at all, but Philly's D was making plays and SD's was not. McNabb shot them in a foot a few times with poor decisions and accuracy.

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Do you not think it's much, much harder to play D on the road than at home? Philly enjoyed a +1 turnover edge, totally shut down the best RB in the game, picked up a possible 10 point swing on a truly unforeseen and fortunate play in the game, yet still failed to cover. Sorry but it shouldn't have even been as close as 3. Philly failed.

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No, not really - did you watch the game? The Eagles played TERRIBLE, most of McNabb's completions were short for no yardage, he threw to the receivers' feet most of the game like he's been doing for years, they never ran the ball for more than 2 yards at a time, they basically played like a D1-AA college team on offense the whole game... they sucked! And it was still that close?

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So my question is does the SD defense deserve some credit for constantly putting the Philly O, in a very difficult road matchup, in a situation where they could only make the passes they did?

The Philly D did a phenomenal job against LT, a weak job against the SD pass offense, and barely covered. I expected a helluva lot more at home from this team, and only a lucky play made it close.

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Sorry but it shouldn't have even been as close as 3.

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Man, now you're saying the same thing as everyone else - losing a bet must really get you out of wack...

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So my question is does the SD offense deserve some credit for constantly putting the Philly O, in a very difficult road matchup, in a situation where they could only make the passes they did?

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I assume you mean defense here, and the answer is no - Philly held the time of possession advantage by 3-1 entering the 4th quarter, SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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Sorry but it shouldn't have even been as close as 3.

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Man, now you're saying the same thing as everyone else - losing a bet must really get you out of wack...

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lol no I'm saying completely opposite...Philly had no right to win by 3. It was a loss ATS no matter what because Philly stunk.

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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You can lol yourself all you want, go watch the whole game and then try and tell me the SD defense had any effect on the game.... seriously. Let me know what you think..

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So my question is does the SD offense deserve some credit for constantly putting the Philly O, in a very difficult road matchup, in a situation where they could only make the passes they did?

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I assume you mean defense here, and the answer is no - Philly held the time of possession advantage by 3-1 entering the 4th quarter, SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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For the record my first response came because I found Performify's analysis of the game totally wrong when he said was spot on:

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LT is certainly looking hot on the ground (ed: 7 yds), but the Chargers air attack is not (ed: 299 yds). Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small 7-0 at end of 2nd qtr), helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: came back from deficit to take lead), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (287 yds on 54 attempts, 2 INT).

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So basically, all wrong. I give credit where credit is due, and it was not due here. Otherwise, ice job on the week jedi.

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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You can lol yourself all you want, go watch the whole game and then try and tell me the SD defense had any effect on the game.... seriously. Let me know what you think..

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So just to clarify, a defense forcing an offense into a short play passing attack means they had no effect. If so, I guess we agree to differ, that's all. Their performance was hardly suffocating but good enough for a road performance. That's basically my point here, they came up good enough for the road.

I'm a little frustrated about it obviously, small bet as it was. Don't get me started on my darn Houston bet (burning David Carr in effigy as we speak)....

Re: Performify\'s Pigskin Picks - Week Seven
 

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For the record my first response came because I found Performify's analysis of the game totally wrong when he said was spot on:

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LT is certainly looking hot on the ground (ed: 7 yds), but the Chargers air attack is not (ed: 299 yds). Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small 7-0 at end of 2nd qtr), helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: came back from deficit to take lead), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (287 yds on 54 attempts, 2 INT).

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Well, i was certainly being results oriented in saying that I thought my analysis was close (but obviously not quite there) in regards to the Eagles.

For what its worth, here's my full prediction and how I would dissect it - I certainly don't think I was "totally wrong":

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Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. (ed: referring to past games, not a prediction for this game) Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small seven point lead through the first half, ten point lead through the end of 3nd qtr, small leads but still early leads held through the start of the 4th Q), helping to neutralize LT (ed: LT was most certainly neutralized, by the Philly defense stacking the box as expected and by the Eagles lead). The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: meaning their offense is much better when they can dictate the tempo with a run-first offense, as they've been able to do in past weeks, and I think you saw that as a truism here - when their run game got shutdown as predicted the SD offense didn't perform nearly to the level of the last few weeks), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (ed: here was the major disparity; Philly certainly didn't look that sharp, only 287 yds on 34/54 attempts and 1TD with 2INT). This is a pivotal game for Philly (ed: correct), which will move to 4-2 with the win (ed: correct). The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong (ed: correct, but faded in second half). Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign (ed: all mentioned trends continued, note none of these are ATS trends). Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line (ed: yep) . The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. (ed: yep) 27-21 Philly (ed: 20-17 is pretty close, but obviously close enough).


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So yeah, I expected Philly to be just a little sharper on offense - but otherwise the game went pretty much as expected. Philly did take an early lead, albeit a small one because their offense wasn't clicking and because San Diego was able to make some big/lucky plays on defense (i.e. the interceptions). Philly was certainly able to neutralize LT as I predicted - because the San Diego passing game had not been that hot lately (as mentioned) they were able to put 8+ in the box and shut down the run entirely. However McNabb still seems limited by the injury, as he wasn't as sharp as expected and ultimately couldn't put up as many points as expected.

At the end of the game I was expecting/hoping to see San Diego hit the field goal, then the Eagles march downfield and score to send the game to OT, where hopefully the Eagles would have a chance to break a TD versus setting up for a FG.

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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The Chargers D had a tremendous effect on the game. 3 penalties for 35 yards (including 1 that nullified a turnover and the other 2 gave Philly first downs) on the Eagles first scoring drive.

I thought the game plan was a good one. You don't have to get to McNabb to make him ineffective. You have to make sure he doesn't make plays with his legs (less of a threat these days, but still a consideration) and you have to make him a bit nervous in the pocket. Then drop 7 and wait for the inaccuracy to begin.

Saying that McNabb was inaccurate and made bad decisions, even when he had all day to throw, is like saying the sun came up this morning. The passing attack is based on TO getting wide open and Westbrook making people miss out of the backfield. The Chargers did a nice job slowing some of that down and forcing McNabb to look to 3rd and 4th options and that's when he has trouble.

LT was stuffed. period.

The Chargers should have won that game. Its amazing how creative they are getting in dropping 4th quarter leads this year.

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I missed the end of the first half. Can someone tell me what happened? Seems like Philly drove to the SD 1 but didn't get any scores as time ran out. Too bad, that would have been the cover right there.

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I see, well that's certainly different than "spot on" which was all I was driving at. The result wasn't far from you thought but the blocked FG had everything to do with that. It's assuming quite a bit to think the Eagles would've gone down easily for a TD to tie the score to send the game into OT. The biggest disparity between prediction and result was that SD couldn't play well from behind -- they did and that's the major reason this game ended in the result it did.

I suppose when I hear "spot on" I expect something pretty darn close to what happened. Otherwise, great job on the week. I can't buy a win on the spread at this point, Philly included.

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I missed the end of the first half. Can someone tell me what happened? Seems like Philly drove to the SD 1 but didn't get any scores as time ran out. Too bad, that would have been the cover right there.

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It was classic Andy "Gameday" Reid.

They have no timeouts left (surprise). The drive started at their own 20 with almost 4:00 remaining, and they dink and dunk their way down the field when....

1st and 10 at the SD 13 with :10 left in the half, and McNabb passes to LJ Smith in the middle of the field for 4 yards (because when the player is tackled in the middle of the field, the clock stops, right?) - Team tries to hurry and lineup to spike the ball for the FG try, but was whistled for a false start. Clock starts on whistle, end of half - lots of booing ensued.

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I suppose when I hear "spot on" I expect something pretty darn close to what happened.

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Yeah, I was probably a little too enthusiastic on patting myself on the back - was just a little frustrated from the close loss and trying to console myself that i'd gotten it "close but not quite".

I should have said that I was close in my analysis, and hit a couple major points correctly (LT shut down, Philly winning, etc) but obviously not by enough points. Close game that could have gone either way though (for example had Philly had an extra timeout at the end of the first half we'd be looking at 10-0 at halftime or possibly even 14-0).

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Otherwise, great job on the week. I can't buy a win on the spread at this point, Philly included.

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Thanks. Its been a good two weeks, after barely outrunning the juice the first five weeks. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]