99 vs 65/11/2
 

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (10.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero..

Whole action - How do you play it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

what hands do you think he is capping pf with?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

He's loose but not crazy. I'd fold the river. You were either behind the whole way or he just caught up.

For the record, I play the hand the exact same planning to take the free showdown. I don't think there's much value in calling/betting the river.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

I fold the flop. The only hand I can think of that might be played this way that you're actually ahead of would be something like AQs. I usually give a range of AA-QQ and AKs to a preflop cap. You're ahead of exactly none of those. Fold the flop.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

I guess you have to figure what villain is capping with PF. He's a bit loose with his PFR, but will he cap with any hand or just premium ones? If it's the former, then the raise on the flop is good IMO and then I'd just call the river. If he only caps with AA-QQ/AK, then you're well behind and should fold the flop with no draws.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Fold the river. You beat only a bluff. I usually play it the same, but in some case I just calldown and possibly find a fold on the turn; you're behind any pocket pair that's capping PF (and the villain's taking it to showdown in any case), behind any hand combination with a K (though less likely with two on the board), and on the turn, you're now also behind any hand combination with a J and AQ now has 13 outs to beat you.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Fold the flop. You have 2 outs here waaaay to often to justify showing down IMO.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

as someone else asked what are reasonable hands he capping preflop? w/out any reads, a reasonable person would cap AA-TT, AKs, AKo, and maybe AQs.

after the flop youre behind seven of those hands. youre ahead of AQs and that's even a questionble hand he played.

fold on the flop.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
as someone else asked what are reasonable hands he capping preflop? w/out any reads, a reasonable person would cap AA-TT, AKs, AKo, and maybe AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know usual capping standards. That wasn't my question. Villain is hardly an unknown, at least I assume OP isn't posting those stats if they're only for some 20 hands or so.

Consider villain's numbers. 65/11/2. He plays 65% of hands and maintains an AF of 2. That's a LOT of betting/raising with no doubt losing hands. If the PFR number doesn't distinguish between raises/caps, then it's conceivable that villain could be capping with hands you wouldn't normally suspect given that he's unusually aggressive postflop.

Does the PFR % factor in capping amount, or is it strictly a measure of how often the person in question will raise? To clarify, if I raise and then cap, does it only count the initial raise or will both raise and cap increase my PFR %? My thinking is no, but I have never determined this myself.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

-------------

Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

---------

Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

villian 3-bets with KTo

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

-------------

Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

---------

Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

-------------

Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

---------

Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i did adjust for this by reducing the equity from 37 to 30. Maybe it´s not enough?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

-------------

Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

---------

Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i did adjust for this by reducing the equity from 37 to 30. Maybe it´s not enough?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I didn't see this was a calculation on the flop. Given the turn J, and expanding the range to include TT and AJ, wouldn't this be a clear fold?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

for those who say fold the flop, this is the exact reason why i cap light sometimes if i'm ever caught opening light. so suppose i had 88 here, i would sometimes cap hoping to get hands like QQ-TT to fold on ugly Ace high boards.

the extra sb you invest preflop may help you steal the whole pot postflop and also might be for pure value if you're getting 3-bet by overcards.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Do you think his postflop play was spew?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

So are you saying Hero shouldn't fold the flop CDC, or that villain's play would be good with 88 because Hero needs to fold the flop here?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think his postflop play was spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think in order of correct flop decisions is call/raise/fold if thats what you meant.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
So are you saying Hero shouldn't fold the flop CDC, or that villain's play would be good with 88 because Hero needs to fold the flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm saying hero definitely should not fold the flop. at least wait to see what happens on the turn before giving up if you have to.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks to me like you're counting the 2.5 bets we invest here in the 11.75 bets that we win. Those are a cost and not a profit.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

would you agree with the flop raise if you though it would buy you a free showdown?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
would you agree with the flop raise if you though it would buy you a free showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure. also if you get 3bet on the flop it becomes a pretty easy hand to play after that no?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Yeah, it's an autofold[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's a bit loose with his PFR...

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when is 11% a bit loose PFR? He's a LOT loose at 65% VPIP, but that doesn't impact his PFR at all. Now, at 2, with a VPIP of 65, his PAF is ginormous...

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Even at this limit? I rarely see light blind steals (let alone caps) from MP2 at 1/2 because most players are passive and even the aggressive ones have trouble getting a small field/buying the pot against typically loose opponents. And just because capping 88/AQ may be a good play for Villain here doesn't mean he's going to do it very often; I'd guess that a 'typical' 1/2 Villain caps 88/AQ &lt;5% of the time?

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

I hate raising this flop, you're way too likely to be 3-bet here. Calling &gt; folding &gt; raising in my opinion.

Wait, [censored], I forgot to do a 2 page long equity calculation. [censored].

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

Sure. I was trying to figure out what to do on the flop.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks to me like you're counting the 2.5 bets we invest here in the 11.75 bets that we win. Those are a cost and not a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure about this.

But the way i see it is that we spend 2,5bb to win a pot of 11,75bb. Doesn´t really matter who have put the money into it. The "cost" is already into the equation, when we do the "profit"/"cost" thing.

Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
 

While it's good for one to not think of money in the pot as one's money, at the point we're considering the calldown our money isn't in the pot yet. We're spending 2.5BB to win the money already in the pot plus our opponent's 2.5BB.